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Gorehamj

Former GM Vice Chairman On Autonomous Cars "Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road..."

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John Goreham

Contributing Writer, GM-Trucks.com

11-8-2017

 

Former GM Vice Chairman of the Board, and long-time automotive executive, Bob Lutz, has weighed in on autonomous vehicles and his expectations of the future will give any truck owner chills. In a nutshell, Lutz predicts that automobile ownership will shift to ride-share companies like Uber and GM’s partner Lyft. Lutz predicts that the big tipping point will come when self-driving cars, which will be electric vehicles, by the way, make up 20% or so of the total U.S. fleet. Following that point of acceptance, the U.S. will legislate the end of private automobiles on public roads. Lutz says, "Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road..."

This may seem like crazy talk, but coming from Lutz it gets us thinking hard about how he could be wrong. Certainly, in rural areas, private ownership will hang on longer, and contractors who use private vehicles will be the last to be pushed away from using their work vehicles for other purposes.

 

Having shared the first part of the full story which Automotive News has begun to publish in sections with some of my colleagues, many good points were raised. One that really stuck in my head was from a friend who lives just outside of a major U.S. city with no public transportation from his town about 10 miles outside the city center, where he works. He said, “I am involved in a big artificial intelligence project at work and this guy’s predictions are definitely on target. In fact, his timeline may be a little conservative. I spend at least two hours a day commuting in my car and the time I spend driving is essentially wasted time. I’d much rather be in the backseat reading, watching the news or catching up on email.” The person who wrote that is not some Greenpeace activist living off the grid. He’s a guy I once knew to have the coolest and fastest Camaros I have ever seen. He drives normal everyday internal combustion cars and is ready for change.

 

What say you GM-Trucks.com faithful? Give the article a read and poke holes in it if you think it is off-base. 

 

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More liberal garbage in an attempt to take away things that Americans enjoy such as camping, self sufficiency, and of course, freedom.

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Agreed.  Liberals will cause the next revolution one way or another, thankfully im on the side with the guns = )

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Let the people who want to drive, drive.  A law requiring the use of autonomous vehicles would hopefully never pass.  

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Too many people would oppose this. 

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Bob Lutz has either lost his mind, or owns stock in the software for self driving cars...

I call B.S. on making people get rid of their cars.

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I wouldn't be surprised to see personal automobiles "banned" from city centers in the next 20 years. Congestion is becoming a major issue across the board and there is just no good way to scale ingestion of personal automobiles into the city. That said, personal sized vehicles (ie. not busses or trains) are still not a great option for travel into the city from the outskirts. They are great for getting from A to B within the city but not from outside into the city.

Additionally, I find the timeframe here far far too aggressive. We don't have bulletproof autonomous driving at the moment and interactions with poor road conditions or construction are still largely untested. On top of it the government isn't known for being fast to implement new laws that allow for new technology, nor are they going to shut down personal vehicle travel soon.

I feel this change will come eventually, but most likely for taxies, busses or major hubs. Personal vehicles are most likely to continue as a main form of transportation for the next 20+ years I feel.

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i call BS as well, who is going to buy back the truck you paid 40,000 + for or are still making payments on. something like that i truly believe would cause an armed revolution 

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1 hour ago, Logan Lanfear said:

  A law requiring the use of autonomous vehicles would hopefully never pass.  

I agree.. NEVER in our lifetime

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you would have to pry my keys out of my cold, dead hands before I would EVER consider giving up driving. Autonomous vehicles are NOWHERE NEAR ready for the mainstream yet; the technology behind them is still FAR too expensive. and again, you have to think about the rural aspect of what he is trying to push; autonomous vehicles, and ridesharing/Fancy Taxis are really more for an urban environment.

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He didn't say it would happen in the next five years. He said when self driving cars make up 20% of the vehicle, you will have 5 years to get your car off of the road. I can see this happening. I hope I am wrong but I think this is the future. Middle America has been under attack for the last few decades and it has been accelerated in the last 9 years. This is just one more front. 

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Ahhahahahahahahahahaha.  I suppose you want me to turn in my Harley and my guns too right?  FU chump

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It is literally impossible for autonomous vehicles to work in my area. How do you send in an autonomous big rig in a non-maintained bush road to pick up a skidder? You can't and never will be able to. How will autonomous cars handle icy conditions or when it gets stuck in the snow? Any moron that thinks autonomous vehicles are going to be a good idea and succeed are stuck in their own little bubble in their big city. They don't realize how goods and services are performed, how real life is not ready to accept this technology. It may fly in NYC or LA, but in rural Canada you will be laughed at when you talk about this, or electric trucks. Liberalism is a disease. 

Edited by 10SierraA.T.
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There is absolutely no way this would happen in 5 years.  Just not going to happen.  Unless you're " baller " status, good luck.  Nobody is going to buy their 16 year old kid a new electric car.  You're not going to take a road trip in a electric car.  They cannot even build the infrastructure to make this happen.  Look at any downtown area.  Most apartments do not have enough parking spaces for all the tenants cars now.  Where are people going to charge their cars overnight?

 

 

Once you put your real working world thinking caps on you realize how fast this thing falls apart. 

 

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