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Gorehamj

Former GM Vice Chairman On Autonomous Cars "Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road..."

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On 11/8/2017 at 8:21 AM, Gorehamj said:

What say you GM-Trucks.com faithful? Give the article a read and poke holes in it if you think it is off-base. 

I believe he is absolutely on the money with this. Look how fast technology has come into our lives already it's in the cards that this is the way of the future. Does anyone think for a moment that the guy that rode the horse or drove the buggy ever thought the end would come in that the car would actually take over the horse and buggy or where are they now. This is the future and the way the human race is evolving I'm not happy about it because I also love to drive I have old Vehicles vintage vehicles that I like to take in My worry is will I be able to do that in the future certainly for a while but eventually we will be muscled out and it will all be rideshare I need a car and I'll just call it up it'll be at my door within a few minutes it won't be mine but I'll be renting it my family and I'll get in it will go to where we need to be the cars along move off to a parking spot of some sort when somebody needs one they just call it up and they come and deliver them where they need to go. Sounds crazy? Perhaps, I don't think so though.

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On 11/8/2017 at 1:26 PM, Loco-diablo said:

I agree.. NEVER in our lifetime

Didn't a couple of chicks say that to Charles Manson?

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Want to start a civil war?  Forget about guns, take away my car and you take away my freedom!    I enjoy driving my car, and I do not want an autonomous thing to do it for me.  

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SO.... I’m allowed to get hammered at the bar, hop in my new fangled automatic car, tell that somabitch to bring me home and take a nap in the back seat on the way?? I mean, I can see how it might be useful. But who is at fault if my computer car knocks down the neighbor’s mailbox if I’m alseep in the back seat? 

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There is NO chance I will give up my ZR1 or any of my other vehicles and whom ever thinks people who love to drive will follow this crap is dead wrong.  If your life is that busy that you need time to work, sleep or do your homework while travelling you need help.  Driving downtown in any big city takes time and if you think an autonomous vehicle will get you where you need to be any  quicker with any less frustration you're dreaming!  I'll keep my cars just the way they are.  I actually enjoy driving.  Just try to take my vehicles away!

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What a nut job. One thing I do believe in the near future is that vehicles are only going to able to go as fast as the road allows, hell the roads posted speed limit is already in a GPS devise on each road traveled. Speed limit on a road that is 45mph and the vehicle will only go 50mph max, that I can see coming as its already there but not tied into the vehicle. 

Edited by Silverado4x4

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On 11/13/2017 at 4:01 PM, NiteOwl99 said:

I believe he is absolutely on the money with this. Look how fast technology has come into our lives already it's in the cards that this is the way of the future. Does anyone think for a moment that the guy that rode the horse or drove the buggy ever thought the end would come in that the car would actually take over the horse and buggy or where are they now. This is the future and the way the human race is evolving I'm not happy about it because I also love to drive I have old Vehicles vintage vehicles that I like to take in My worry is will I be able to do that in the future certainly for a while but eventually we will be muscled out and it will all be rideshare I need a car and I'll just call it up it'll be at my door within a few minutes it won't be mine but I'll be renting it my family and I'll get in it will go to where we need to be the cars along move off to a parking spot of some sort when somebody needs one they just call it up and they come and deliver them where they need to go. Sounds crazy? Perhaps, I don't think so though.

I think he's drinking too much kool-aid.

 

The horse and buggy did not come to an end.  It was a "non-starter" for 99% of the population as cars got more popular - but those horse and buggies are NOT outlawed.  Or you've never been around an Amish or Mennonite community.  Still driven - still on major state highways (although illegal on the interstate).  Around my area, there's usually a car hitting a horse and buggy about once a year.  That's a 65-70mph collision with horse and buggy.  Not pretty.

 

[opinion_mode_on]

As a professional software developer, I've written code for 44-45 years now (I was a teenage geek), variety of systems, languages (including a couple AI languages).  I don't believe AI will be able to catch up to humans any time soon.  Oh yeah, simple stuff, some basic acrobatics (running/leaping robots), but you do realize that the AI now being used in a vehicle is already programmed to possibly destroy either the occupant(s) or the pedestrian(s) don't you?  There simply comes a point in time that a decision has to be made - who lives, who dies?  Maybe you didn't hear about it - but Microsoft had a real issue with their AI.  Because of the input - it was taught to be racist in less than a day https://techcrunch.com/2016/03/24/microsoft-silences-its-new-a-i-bot-tay-after-twitter-users-teach-it-racism/.

 

Honestly - who isn't prejudiced?  Whether religion, economic, sex, race, whatever - EVERYONE has a degree of prejudice.  So - who is going to program that AI?  While it might learn - it has to start with a seed of intelligence from someone.  And even if we presume it is self-teaching - it still starts with the basics, and like my rule of teachers or consultants - they cannot teach you more than they know.  So - who was the AI teacher?  IQ of 120? 90?  200?  How much you trust that person?  What country are they from?  Doesn't matter?  Well, I've dealt with several foreign developers, and while talented, their perspective - due to environmental factors/race/etc. - is QUITE different than ours (American).  Things I wouldn't have to give much thought about with a developer from the US - I have to go into excruciating detail to be sure some simple thing Americans all take for granted in how the software should function - would be left out by many foreign developers.

 

Before we worry about self-driving cars - how about an autonomous soldier?  Able to fire back at the "enemy"?  Anyone brave/stupid enough to start there?  I mean, it's a battlefield, much more "confined" area than driving all over the country.  If you don't have enough confidence to do that - you really think AI will self-drive cars flawlessly?  Even without humans on the road?

 

Honestly - when AI can write a simple piece of code that is flawless, has NO vulnerabilities, NO bugs, is perfect in every way - then I might be worried.  Or, better yet, stick your code through an AI, and have it tell you all the problems so you can fix it (yes, there are "lint" type programs that can detect some of those things - but today's emphasis are languages that put "training wheels" on developers in an attempt to keep them from harming themselves).  I think any thought of that happening in 10-20 years is a pipe dream.

[/opinion_mode_off]

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So I'm guessing in the off chance this happens in 40-50 years, there will be cars available in all price ranges? Even for those that can only afford the $2000 used cars! And yeah speaking of things to happen in the future, where are all those flying cars we are supposed to have now, shouldn't we be living like The Jetsons already.

 

Edited by Daly

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I'd like to see them try and take our vehicles away. They will discover the full fury of America pretty quick.

 

They've been pushing and pushing and pushing the past 9 years - we've had enough! :mad:

 

 

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And what good will that do.


MOVAN LABE


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As autonomous vehicle technology advances, there will likely be shift of permissible traffic within the boundaries of many major metropolitan areas - kinda like Class B restricted Airspace around larger airports. Mostly restricted to certain traffic (in this case - autonomous vehicles), with special permission granted for some non autonomous traffic that will be required to follow specific routes and or rules.

I believe this will happen over time - much like bicycle lanes have gained in popularity in many larger cities - but the shift will be relatively rapid.

 

Will combustion driven vehicles be eliminated - no

Will autonomous cars have priority - yes

Will this happen in the next 5 years - no, but in the next 5 years, there will be significant progress as it starts out slow and gains momentum at a very rapid pace over the next 10 years

 

Never fear - Onstar is here to help guide you - er ah, tattle on you.

 

Remember - you don't own your vehicle either because of the software used to operate it - you just lease it...

Edited by onstarsucsk

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On 11/27/2017 at 6:50 AM, onstarsucsk said:

As autonomous vehicle technology advances, there will likely be shift of permissible traffic within the boundaries of many major metropolitan areas - kinda like Class B restricted Airspace around larger airports. Mostly restricted to certain traffic (in this case - autonomous vehicles), with special permission granted for some non autonomous traffic that will be required to follow specific routes and or rules.

I believe this will happen over time - much like bicycle lanes have gained in popularity in many larger cities - but the shift will be relatively rapid.

 

Will combustion driven vehicles be eliminated - no

Will autonomous cars have priority - yes

Will this happen in the next 5 years - no, but in the next 5 years, there will be significant progress as it starts out slow and gains momentum at a very rapid pace over the next 10 years

 

Never fear - Onstar is here to help guide you - er ah, tattle on you.

 

Remember - you don't own your vehicle either because of the software used to operate it - you just lease it...

A few things.   As of late, I have actually been migrating away from GM as I feel the "On Star" may actually be a little too much like Big Brother in 1984.  I think it is a handy tool, and just like cell phones they have the ability to tell when you are speeding, all it would take is another abusive and intrusive administration who likes to regulate and control, and we could all be given speeding tickets by our cell phone (scary stuff here)

 

As for the internal combustion engine... I would think that the ICE would have a good 25 to 50 years left in them before we completely move away from fossil fuels.   For starters gasoline and diesel are not only used in cars, it is also used in Tractors, airplanes and boats.   As of yet there is no feasible way to make a production electric aircraft, weight being the main problem with electric power, and I am not aware of any boats, nor farm tractors that use electricity either, so fossil fuels are in our foreseeable future.     Gasoline will in fact become less expensive as demand drops from more electric cars and trucks, but the government will find new ways to tax those vehicles to get the "road taxes." 

 

The Autonomous vehicle may have special lanes or special routes they can utilize, but to ban them from metropolitan areas will be a pipe dream of Bobby Lutz if he thinks that everyone will just turn over their keys to their old car and drop $30-$100K on a new car, when the masses can only afford a $2000 car as it is.   Things will become less expensive, and the tech will become better, but it is not going to be in 5 years.  

 

Predictions are funny, I was told we were to actually run out of oil in 1950... it never came to pass,

 

Eventually everyone might have access to an autonomous vehicle to some degree but it will take at least 20 years AFTER the last non-autonomous vehicle is sold.  Just like fossil fuels, it will be at least a decade before they stop selling gasoline after the last gasoline car is sold.   It took almost 20 years to completely get rid of the availability of leaded fuel after it was removed from new cars in 1974.

Edited by okfoz

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1 hour ago, okfoz said:

A few things.   As of late, I have actually been migrating away from GM as I feel the "On Star" may actually be a little too much like Big Brother in 1984.  I think it is a handy tool, and just like cell phones they have the ability to tell when you are speeding, all it would take is another abusive and intrusive administration who likes to regulate and control, and we could all be given speeding tickets by our cell phone (scary stuff here)

 

As for the internal combustion engine... I would think that the ICE would have a good 25 to 50 years left in them before we completely move away from fossil fuels.   For starters gasoline and diesel are not only used in cars, it is also used in Tractors, airplanes and boats.   As of yet there is no feasible way to make a production electric aircraft, weight being the main problem with electric power, and I am not aware of any boats, nor farm tractors that use electricity either, so fossil fuels are in our foreseeable future.     Gasoline will in fact become less expensive as demand drops from more electric cars and trucks, but the government will find new ways to tax those vehicles to get the "road taxes." 

 

The Autonomous vehicle may have special lanes or special routes they can utilize, but to ban them from metropolitan areas will be a pipe dream of Bobby Lutz if he thinks that everyone will just turn over their keys to their old car and drop $30-$100K on a new car, when the masses can only afford a $2000 car as it is.   Things will become less expensive, and the tech will become better, but it is not going to be in 5 years.  

 

Predictions are funny, I was told we were to actually run out of oil in 1950... it never came to pass,

 

Eventually everyone might have access to an autonomous vehicle to some degree but it will take at least 20 years AFTER the last non-autonomous vehicle is sold.  Just like fossil fuels, it will be at least a decade before they stop selling gasoline after the last gasoline car is sold.   It took almost 20 years to completely get rid of the availability of leaded fuel after it was removed from new cars in 1974.

I agree 100% with everything you've said here.

 

Seems to be the dream of the left to gain TOTAL control of every single warm body on this planet, from the cradle to the grave. The biggest vehicle (pardon the pun) to freedom for the last 100 years has been the automobile. Take control of that (and healthcare) and you have damn near TOTAL control.    If they deem you a threat to their well being, they can disable your car at ANY time, any place, in any weather. Might just be when you're on the way to the hospital with a severe injury, or illness. There's lots of ways this scenario can go bad ...

 

I feel the exact same way about Onstar. When I bought my '07, the very first thing I did to that truck was disable Onstar - it hasn't worked since! Something about it made the hair stand up on the back of my neck. The good side is what they always show you - like with smartphones. The things they can do while you're anywhere on the planet are amazing. Then you're hooked. What they don't tell you is,  you're now carrying a personal locator beacon - you cannot run, you cannot hide.

 

Of course, the sheeple will argue that, "IF you're not doing anything wrong, what do you have to worry about?" All I have to say to that are 3 names: Joseph Stalin, Adolph Hitler, and Benito Mussolini - just think of what EVIL those 3 would've accomplished with this technology!! And, what makes you think human nature has changed one bit from that time period? If anything, our collective souls have darkened. It happened to the Germans, and if the last 8 years were any indicator, it sure as shit can happen here in America. 

 

Watch your six ... :uhoh: 

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