I would list out the load combinations (cab contents plus bed contents plus trailer tongue/pin load) you want to be able to haul, and realistically estimate the payload weights with some margin added (maybe 500 lbs). If all those numbers are around 3000 lbs or below, a 2500 should be fine and will have a better ride when empty. If any of those total payload numbers are above 3000 lbs, then you need to look at the expected truck payload capability and make a careful decision. If any loads are above 3500 lbs, you probably need to go with a 3500.
For me, at the time I ordered the truck I wanted to keep my options open to grow into a hard sided 9 foot camper like an Arctic Fox if I decided to go there. With that plus towing a boat the answer was clear. Now that I’ve had my 1800 lb FWC pop up camper for a year, I now know I will never get a hard sided camper. If I was reordering now I’d go 2500 for the better ride. However, at the time, 3500 was the right decision, and I’ll live with it. I still really like the truck, and I know at some point I’ll fill the bed with firewood or a water tank and be glad I have the one ton with its over 4000 lbs payload. I can also set up my boat trailer with a heavy tongue load if I want even with the camper on.
If you plan to drive a lot unloaded it’s worth looking at this carefully rather than just defaulting to the greater payload of the 3500 because of the ride difference.