Rebates

[seamonster]

Do you think GM's next round of rebates will be higher or

maybe not because of all the $$$$ they claim to be losing?

[AG Bill 05 Z71]

Robert Lutz, head of GM, indicated in several articles in the past two weeks, that he realizes that GM is going to have to make money on a smaller market share. He also indicated that he needs to price cars/trucks so large rebates are not necessary to move product.

 

I think the days of big rebates ($4,000 -$5,000 real rebates) are over for the near future unless sales go down significantly...

[gnutruk]

Almost everything GM head Robert Lutz says is aimed at the stock brokerage analysts who specialize in the auto sector. He and his management team are engaged in a desperate rear guard action these days, trying to bolster the perception of continuing underlying value in GM stocks and bonds.

 

I agree with AG Bill 05 Z71 that what Lutz says he wants to do is what he hopes to be able to do. But he and GM have their backs to the wall, and fear and panic are the order of the day in the face of anticipated $100 per barrel oil prices by mid-late summer. If it hits hard, then GM may find themselves having to give big rebates to clear show lots.

 

Lots of folks have trucks, and there seems to be a decent inventory of used trucks available. While there are reasons to justify trading up, to salvage GM's market share there will have to be a COMPELLING reason to trade up. In the face of much higher fuel costs, only significantly better fuel economy is likely to make that case. Otherwise, folks will just sit on the trucks they already have, trying to get some of their hoped-for improvements by going aftermarket, etc.

 

On balance I do not anticipate that GM will be able to avoid rebates. BIG rebates. They can't increase sales with financing offers anymore, that's for sure! Because of their basic business model, GM is compelled to do everything they can to maintain market share. The program for them is simply to hold on until the vehicle market improves. To have any future at all, if and when a market turn-around arrives, they must hold their percentage of the domestic market. In the last analysis, that translates into an imperative to move X-number of units. Again, they are not in a position to do it on the basis of any sort of dramatic breakthrough in fuel economy. Nor will changes in the feature set or fancy changes in the sheet metal bring people out.

 

Alternately, if GM looses a VERY large chunk of market share, they won't be doing much of anything as far as rebates go. Instead, they will be getting on a first name basis with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court Judge who is assigned to adjudicate their Chapter 11 filing.

 

There's a train a comin' down the tracks. Three trains, actually. Those trains are headed right into the center of GM headquarters (Ford and Chrysler too). The potential consequences are so great as to require an analysis far beyond the posting size limit of this forum. The three factors are (in no particular order of importance) :

 

1). The continued loss in value of the American dollar in international trade.

 

2). Specific technical factors currently in play in the international energy markets.

 

3). The coming attack on Iran.

 

All those factors are deeply intertwined, leading to extremely clouded crystal balls for everyone who purports to have one, or who pretends to have one. Robert Lutz and the top executive level at GM has a far better crystal ball than most of us, but there is evidence that even they are having severe difficulty peering deep into its innards these days.

 

gnutruk

[snoman]

Robert Lutz, head of GM, indicated in several articles in the past two weeks, that he realizes that GM is going to have to make money on a smaller market share.  He also indicated that he needs to price cars/trucks so large rebates are not necessary to move product.

 

I think the days of big rebates ($4,000 -$5,000 real rebates) are over for the near future unless sales go down significantly...

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

 

 

It is Lutz's job to convince stock holders that all is well and under control and a lot of his public statements are tailored for that purpose. With current fuel prices and the prospects of higher prices yet a lot of that big iron GM makes is going to take a lot of incentives to move. They made a mistake after 9/11 by starting big rebates and now the public expects them and even more so in todays market so you have not seen the last of them and there should be some record rebates this summer to clear out 05 gas hogs that are not doing well now in sales and will not this summer without them either and maybe not with them either unless they are very high.

[seamonster]

Guess I waited too long or guessed wrong!

The rebate went down in my area!

Shoot there went a grand. Should have

taken the 4:10 instead of waiting!

 

I guess there inventories arent that high!

[Elwood 2000]

I have read on the web, (take it for what it's worth) that GM has acres and acres of new vehicles sitting around, waiting to be sold. They keep building them to prevent layoffs and downsizing in their "time of despair" so things don't look so bad.

 

MY OPINION: I think there will be large rebates on '05 trucks/suv's as summer goes on and if the new model is rushed to an '06 model, they will be dumping new '05's like yesterdays news. I think a new '05 right before the new model hits the showroom floor will be bought at a very attractive price. Of course, when the new stuff gets cheap, the used stuff gets very cheap!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

disclaimer: "my opinion" is just that, based on what I have read on the web. Don''t take is as the gospel. I am not responsible for any outcome based on "my opinion". If you pay more for a truck or your cat grows a second tail, it is NOT MY FAULT!!

[Elwood 2000]

I have read on the web, (take it for what it's worth) that GM has acres and acres of new vehicles sitting around, waiting to be sold. They keep building them to prevent layoffs and downsizing in their "time of despair" so things don't look so bad.

 

MY OPINION: I think there will be large rebates on '05 trucks/suv's as summer goes on and if the new model is rushed to an '06 model, they will be dumping new '05's like yesterdays news. I think a new '05 right before the new model hits the showroom floor will be bought at a very attractive price. Of course, when the new stuff gets cheap, the used stuff gets very cheap!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

disclaimer: "my opinion" is just that, based on what I have read on the web. Don''t take is as the gospel. I am not responsible for any outcome based on "my opinion". If you pay more for a truck or your cat grows a second tail, it is NOT MY FAULT!!

[snoman]

I guess there inventories arent that high!

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

 

 

Oh they are high all right it is just in early spring they are not desperate to clear out to 05's yet but they will be soon.

[mudbug660]

Gm is going to do more than just sell some vehicles. Their retirees are receiving top notch health care taking a big bite out of Gm's profits. I'm not saying their health care will go down the drain but they won't be seeing the money they used too. Sorry to say layoffs will most likely come also. Their position in the red area of their graphs can be blamed in part by the management of GMAC which has been making some poor financial decisions. Hopefully new management in this area will help pull them out. Our Professor has been talkling about this in our economics class, sorta suprised me.

[01z71]

The closer we get to the '06's the more they will want to get rid of the '05's. Will probably get higher rebates then.

[snoman]

Gm is going to do more than just sell some vehicles. Their retirees are receiving top notch health care taking a big bite out of Gm's profits.  I'm not saying their health care will go down the drain but they won't be seeing the money they used too.  Sorry to say layoffs will most likely come also.  Their position in the red area of their graphs can be blamed in part by the management of GMAC which has been making some poor financial decisions. Hopefully new management in this area will help pull them out. Our Professor has  been talkling about this in our economics class, sorta suprised me.

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

 

In todays world with skyrocketing heath cost my wife and I pay well over $300/mo in our share of premiums and it will get worse. GM is really feeling the pinch and some of its blue collar workers do not realize that even if they do not get a raise they are still ahead of game because insurance cost have gone up. GM has some major restructuring to do and so will Ford and Dhalmer. Workers that all ready receive generous wages are going to have to start paying for benifits or loss them and a big fight over it is in the wings and coming soon because sooner of later consumer cost for it products will become out of reach for more consumers if not brought under control soon. Coupled with slow sales from rising fuel costs it stands to cripple GM's revenues. The other two of the big 3 are not immune to it it is just that GM is first in line at the moment.

[Domano 68]

3). The coming attack on Iran.

 

 

gnutruk

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

 

 

You have to be kidding!!!!!!

[snoman]

3). The coming attack on Iran.

 

 

gnutruk

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

 

 

You have to be kidding!!!!!!

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

 

 

 

Do not kid yourself, I Bush though he could get away with the same BS reasoning as he did with Iraq and not have the Musliums rise up as a whole he would do it in a heartbeat. I honestly think that the only thing holding him back from pushing it further is lack of manpower and logistics.

[Domano 68]

3). The coming attack on Iran.

 

 

gnutruk

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

 

 

You have to be kidding!!!!!!

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

 

 

 

Do not kid yourself, I Bush though he could get away with the same BS reasoning as he did with Iraq and not have the Musliums rise up as a whole he would do it in a heartbeat. I honestly think that the only thing holding him back from pushing it further is lack of manpower and logistics.

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

 

 

I am not kidding myself. Don't jump to conclusions that just because Bush already did something that is stupid, that he could get away with it again. I do agree that if he "could" do it, he would. But it will not happen.

[snoman]

3). The coming attack on Iran.

 

 

gnutruk

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

 

 

You have to be kidding!!!!!!

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

 

 

 

Do not kid yourself, I Bush though he could get away with the same BS reasoning as he did with Iraq and not have the Musliums rise up as a whole he would do it in a heartbeat. I honestly think that the only thing holding him back from pushing it further is lack of manpower and logistics.

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

 

 

I am not kidding myself. Don't jump to conclusions that just because Bush already did something that is stupid, that he could get away with it again. I do agree that if he "could" do it, he would. But it will not happen.

 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

 

 

 

Maybe not tomorrow but I look for him to start something (or set the stage for it and for the "new" Iraq to help) before he gets out of office and when he can get the Iraqi monkey off of his back but I do not think he every will and 3 years from now there will be 1000's more dead GI's that they will not talk about either. The only reason that Bush is not picking on North Korea is because they have a bomb and will use it and are not afraid to lose a million soldiers in the process either which we cannot buy into. You know if there had been a GW Bush in the White House during the Cuban Missile Crisis, some of us would not be here today because he would have pushed the button I think and that really worries me today.