Crystal Ball? State Of The Market? ?

[piscator]

What does your 'crystal ball' tell you will happen in the truck market over the next six months to a year?

 

I was reading old threads last night and was fascinated by how accurately forum members predicted buyer behavior, truck production, inventories, etc. So what are your thoughts about the 'current state of the market'?

 

Beside simple curiousity, I have a selfish reason for asking I've pretty much settled on NBS Sierra and need you 'Karnacs' to predict when I'll see more low mileage 2008's on the market.

 

piscator

[Zembonez]

The market for new vehicles will remain soft over the next year. I predict it will begin improving in the third quarter but will not regain anywhere near the status it had in early 2008. Most automakers are planning to produce only about 65% of their potential in the first quarter of 2009. Even though GM and others are doing well in many overseas markets right now, the overall world economy is pretty shell shocked from the near collapse in 08. It will take some time to recover.

 

Many well known retailer and companies will fail this year no matter how fast the recovery. Circuit City and 11 other major companies have been ordered to liquidate and shut down just since January 1st 2009.

 

We will survive and emerge strong. The American resolve is as strong as any on earth... but it will not be without some pain in the process. Unfortunately. bailouts are only wasted money that will just delay the inevitable for many companies. Hopefully the huge cost will at least save a few. Goodness knows we will be paying for them long after this is all forgotten.

[Ryan00TJ]

I think it's a great time to buy. Eating lunch at work today I came across a local GMC dealer and checked out the deals on the 09 Sierra's. SLE1, Z71, Tow, 18" wheels, 5.3L, dual climate, remote start, etc... basically same as my truck for 24K. Stickered for $36,000. That's $12K off a new 09 in January!!!!! I paid $23.9 for mine last Aug and got 11K off sticker when the truck market was in the tank at $4.00 gal gas.

[piscator]

The market for new vehicles will remain soft over the next year. I predict it will begin improving in the third quarter but will not regain anywhere near the status it had in early 2008. Most automakers are planning to produce only about 65% of their potential in the first quarter of 2009.

 

I agree, the market isn't likely to get stronger. I'd even be skeptical of a firming 3rd qtr.

 

Most automakers are planning to produce only about 65% of their potential in the first quarter of 2009.

 

There are very few trucks on the lots where I'm looking. If production drops as far as you say, weak inventories will get weaker. You'd expect that to bring some price stability into the market, but who can say.

 

My guess is that 'weekend warriors' (like me) won't be 'buying up' anytime soon. But what about the 'professional guys'? I wonder if the guys making their living with a truck might come in on the 'buy side'?

 

I'm not 'savvy' on the subject of leases, but maybe lease renewals will bring some strength to the market?

 

piscator

[fbachman]

At some point, production will be tailored to match demand, at which time prices will be less volatile and incentives will tighten. If you want to buy a truck, and are able to do it, I say, NOW IS THE TIME.

 

Vehicle sales are tied to the availability of credit and consumer confidence, both of which are waning right now. I believe by the third quarter of this year, credit will loosen some, and, confidence will rebound SOME. Thus, vehicle sales will pick up some. I believe the truck market will still be under pressure, as the desire for folks to buy a truck as a every day "car" will remain under pressure because of the recent fuel price bubble.

 

Many companies right now are looking at SURVIVING 2009, and are looking to "move forward" beyond. I believe this is the correct approach.

 

Just my $0.02.

[MarkD]

The market for new vehicles will remain soft over the next year. I predict it will begin improving in the third quarter but will not regain anywhere near the status it had in early 2008. Most automakers are planning to produce only about 65% of their potential in the first quarter of 2009.

 

I agree, the market isn't likely to get stronger. I'd even be skeptical of a firming 3rd qtr.

 

Most automakers are planning to produce only about 65% of their potential in the first quarter of 2009.

 

There are very few trucks on the lots where I'm looking. If production drops as far as you say, weak inventories will get weaker. You'd expect that to bring some price stability into the market, but who can say.

 

My guess is that 'weekend warriors' (like me) won't be 'buying up' anytime soon. But what about the 'professional guys'? I wonder if the guys making their living with a truck might come in on the 'buy side'?

 

I'm not 'savvy' on the subject of leases, but maybe lease renewals will bring some strength to the market?

 

piscator

 

 

 

Between 20 and 30 of my subs have gone out of business. These are guys with 2-3 fleet trucks that have been in business for 15+ plus years. They will not be buying anytime soon.

 

Myself and many others are surviving by cutting out on the use of subs, doing more work with smaller crews, and taking a little longer to do a job.

 

(A job we could do in 4 weeks with 10 guys, we now do in 7 weeks with 4 guys)

 

Personally, I want, I need a D-max, it just aint in the budget until work picks up.

[MarkD]

Quality, Cheap, or Fast ....Choose 2.

[piscator]

Good comments guys,

 

My local dealer tells me that reduced production has made it difficult to place special orders. Dealer trades have become almost impossible, since everyone is squirreling desireable inventory -- himself included.

 

My dealer can't order effectively and can't afford to speculate in inventory. He's actually advising me to search the internet for the truck I want, because his ability to procure something specific is nearly nil.

 

piscator

[sonjaab]

I will note from my bud working at the local GM mega dealer that

they are ordering fewer diesel rigs due to the fact that them and

other local dealers are choking on leftover 08 2500 x-cab tow rigs

with the $45k sticker price.

Most 09s that they are ordering are low optioned x-cabs like 1500

x-cab 4x4s, pkg 1, 4.8, trailer tow, g-80 with a under $30k sticker

that they are blowing out the door in the 20k price range after rebates.

Same deal with the 2500s and be ready to search far and wide for a

3500 !

[RyanbabZ71]

Anyone know when the next re-styling is set to come? I know 07 was a new body style but does anyone know of speculated future plans? 2012 that would be my thought for the earliest revamp.

[fbachman]

Anyone know when the next re-styling is set to come? I know 07 was a new body style but does anyone know of speculated future plans? 2012 that would be my thought for the earliest revamp.

 

not for a looooooooooonnnnng time, if ever...

[geektoad]

Anyone know when the next re-styling is set to come? I know 07 was a new body style but does anyone know of speculated future plans? 2012 that would be my thought for the earliest revamp.

 

They killed the R&D on the next gen truck late last year. I think that had originally been due out in 2011 or 2012. Given that, I think we're probably looking at a 73-88 situation where we have basically the same truck for a loooong time. I don't have a problem with that either, given how good the GMT900s are.

[Zembonez]

Anyone know when the next re-styling is set to come? I know 07 was a new body style but does anyone know of speculated future plans? 2012 that would be my thought for the earliest revamp.

 

They killed the R&D on the next gen truck late last year. I think that had originally been due out in 2011 or 2012. Given that, I think we're probably looking at a 73-88 situation where we have basically the same truck for a loooong time. I don't have a problem with that either, given how good the GMT900s are.

 

I quite agree. GMT900s could be a long term GM truck offering and as good as they already are, GM will make yearly improvements along the way. From that perspective, I think we are in for some really good offerings from the General!

[cfeiring]

To get back to the original question when to see low mileage 08's on the lots I would start looking in the next few months as persons start to lose income people will start dumping cars and trucks to try and reduce their debt and keep what is really important to them. Signs of that happening are showing now; based on looking at the for sale threads on the various boards that I frequent I have seen several folks selling their trucks to dump debt for the very reason noted above. Look in the papers/auctions/on line sites and you will find them. Also at the end of 09 model year the 2 year lease cars/trucks will be turned in to the dealers and GM left the lease market at the end of 08 so you will see a good supply of lease turn ins showing up spring to fall.

 

that is what i see in my cracked crystal ball (second hand) but usually works ok

[2018GMC]

To get back to the original question when to see low mileage 08's on the lots I would start looking in the next few months as persons start to lose income people will start dumping cars and trucks to try and reduce their debt and keep what is really important to them. Signs of that happening are showing now; based on looking at the for sale threads on the various boards that I frequent I have seen several folks selling their trucks to dump debt for the very reason noted above. Look in the papers/auctions/on line sites and you will find them. Also at the end of 09 model year the 2 year lease cars/trucks will be turned in to the dealers and GM left the lease market at the end of 08 so you will see a good supply of lease turn ins showing up spring to fall.

 

that is what i see in my cracked crystal ball (second hand) but usually works ok

 

I agree. Good post.

 

I thought this was a decent deal.

 

Hopefully this link works....

 

Now only if it had a sunroof and I had a bigger down payment

 

http://www.autotrader.com/fyc/vdp.jsp?ct=c...;standard=false