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By Grumpy Bear · Posted
If we actually used any significant amount of that source in the USA then I'd agree but we don't. We've had that discussion before. We drill and pump more than we use. Thing is, we sell. We export. Gas and Crude. It's more profitable so any shortage here is self inflicted and LEGAL. I worked a gas plant that has multiple fuel sources available and I worked in the furnace and boiler plant in that facility. I'd had days we swapped fuel types four times in a twelve hour shift which isn't done on supply but on margin. Two of the fuel sources are internally generated. Tail gas and DAK, both of which are sold as well a consumed. We always had more than we needed to run the process but we chose the fuel that produced the best margin not bought at the cheapest price always. A good bit of math to that and back in the time that was done on a slide rule. I worked the Shale Oil Semiworks of Chevron Research and CONOCO Research in Salt Lake City. That process never went into production although it was very successful. Why? Did we lack oil bearing shale? Nope. Price of crude never made the margins work. That was in the late 70's early 80's. Remember history? What was happening then was a reaction to that situation. It didn't drive it. If so then it's easy. This isn't a supply and demand thing. This is a profit and margin thing and AI rules that now. In no refining situation that I was ever in would a bomb hitting a well anywhere in the world 'instantly' interrupt or even distress the supply. Most plants have more than a months worth of crude in the tank field and more in pumping stations. That yo-yo could play out over days, weeks and maybe months and have zero impact on plant operations. How many times has this been off and on in the last few months? These people and not stupid. These plants measure down time in hundreds of thousands of dollars per day. They are not sucking fumes or waiting on the next truckload with baited breath. Besides, as I noted, they are for the most part 'vertically integrated'. They own it from the dirt is sits in to the delivery rack and sometimes to the pump. It has a HUGE shock absorber built in. When production suffers, refining wins and when refining is winning exploration is killing. The rest of that crap in the news is a 'news cycle'. Government dipping in to reserves? Oil is stealing their milk money. There's a reason Chevron abandon Venezuela infrastructure and it had nothing to do with security of US citizens. Nationals run those plants. it has to do with MARGINS disappearing to corruption. They are in no hurry to return. Is there supply there? Oh yea. More than enough to offset what is bought in the middle east. Just isn't ???? Profitable. We have supply. There are places in Illinois you can drive a pipe into the ground and run your homes natural gas furnace on it. A refinery fire will gum up the supply works but not a localized war where the market is using a limited supply from. Now Europe, that's something other.... -
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If we're talking futures, yes, it's speculation. The spot price of a delivered barrel is elevated now compared to before the conflict. And that is related more to current supply/demand. -
By Grumpy Bear · Posted
SPECULATION on the wars effect raised prices. AI is maximizing the profit. Refining is vertically integrated. -
It's the Middle East conflict that raised prices, not AI. But nice distraction.
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