How would you build a "forever" truck?

[KARNUT]

haha, you are thinking about this deeper than I intended. I only mean that if I keep it clean and maintain the engine so I'm not burning oil... You can say you would coat/spray/clean the frame, whatever you wish.
 
Bottom line is, the body panels start to peel and separate, electronics get moisture damage, mechanical parts wear out. Obviously you can replace parts all day, as KARNUT stated, one can obtain a whole new frame. But I'm not a mechanic and I'm not paying to re-build a car when its value is less than $1000. Some day that repair costs you more than the vehicle is worth. Do you keep buying parts? for how long?
 
All I'm asking is, how long do you EXPECT a truck built in 2020 to last for the typical responsible owner? Try to hit the mid-point of the bell curve.

Typical for anyone who’s traded a vehicle in is 10-12k miles a year according to any dealer at trade in. Otherwise they deduct for mileage. The average mileage now is supposed to be 200K on the low side. So that’s 20 years give or take a few. The average payment is 6 years. Example my wife’s Genesis is 9 years old at 94K miles, still under bumper to bumper warranty. A new on goes for close to 45K depending on options. It still looks good, drives good. Could it go 10 years and additional 100K miles? No problem. I’d drive my almost 30 year old truck anywhere. Thanks to LMC truck parts are no problem.


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[aseibel]

5 minutes ago, KARNUT said:

I’d drive my almost 30 year old truck anywhere. Thanks to LMC truck parts are no problem.

I agree with your numbers. But in Wisconsin there are very few 1992 trucks left that aren't living on a farm, covered in rust, parked behind the barn with a snowplow on it.

 

Will anyone here have a T1 parked in their garage in the year 2040? 2050?

[KARNUT]

I agree with your numbers. But in Wisconsin there are very few 1992 trucks left that aren't living on a farm, covered in rust, parked behind the barn with a snowplow on it.
 
Will anyone here have a T1 parked in their garage in the year 2040? 2050?

Good question


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[jonny24]

6 hours ago, truckguy82 said:

Do they salt in canada?

 

when I lived in ND they didn’t use salt because the outside temp is usually lower than the melting point of salt water

Southern Ontario is garbage.  Constant freeze thaw, rain/slush/snow/melt repeat. Pour on the salt, pour on the brine. We had a salt shortage last winter. My diploma was in construction technology and we learned it's one of the hardest environments to design buildings for.

 

 

[Grumpy Bear]

3 hours ago, aseibel said:

All I'm asking is, how long do you EXPECT a truck built in 2020 to last for the typical responsible owner? Try to hit the mid-point of the bell curve.

Ah a reality question. Average Joe. No rust mediation or prevention but thoughtfully maintained. Location will have a great bearing on this as well as how average Joe really is. Dry south and private who has his head about him? 20 years body, 500,000 or more miles. Barring the unforeseen. Deer, drunks, hurricane etc. Rustbelt cement contractor....yea...5 years, 150,000 miles. That's the ends of the curve so what....10 to 12 body and 200,000 plus be about the middle of the road.

 

One of your premises has to do with a pet peeve of mine. Worth v Value. Joe values a thing at the 'general consensus' of some bankers idea of value. My view has more to do with replacement of my initial cost which as it works out is four to five times greater than the stick price you paid. Here's a reprint from Yes Dear below:  

 

I buy a new truck that cost $1. How will that work out.

 

State SALES tax is 6% so I need $1.06. But I need $1.06 AFTER TAXES. State, Federal, Social Security and Medicare on my wages are about 17%. My $1.06 is then 83% of some number or $1.28 or $280 per thousand of the sale. Pretty steep but it gets much worse.

 

Trucks need a license, a title and some plates which are more taxes so I need more wages CLEARED AFTER TAXES. In this state 20% of the plate is TAXED as income. So yes. I get taxed when I earn. Taxed when I spend and taxed on the earning and spending on some ADDITIONAL part of the plate TAX. A tax on the taxed money used to pay the tax. I love Illinois.

 

If that buy requires a note it will have an interest rate and I will have to pay that interest with wages CLEARED AFTER TAXES.

 

It will also require full coverage insurance. I need more wages CLEARED AFTER TAXES.

 

It will have an operating expense paid for by wages that are taxed both as that money is made and as it is spent and all of that on the CLEARED AFTER TAX dollars used to pay those expenses.

 

It will depreciate and according to KBB over five years I will lose 63% of the initial purchase price which I won’t pay taxes on but unless I’m a business I can’t write off either. Even if I am a business my write off is amortized over five years and against the taxes paid on my gross earnings not off my taxes directly. True of the interest as well. Let me say that straighter. If I pay a dollar in interest or claim a dollar in depreciation I don’t get a dollar off my taxes. I get a dollar off my gross so I pay taxes on $999 instead of a $1000 and save less than 2 cents on that dollar. I don’t save anything. What I have done is light a fire to $18K.

 

Let’s put some numbers to this. A $28 K truck would cost @ $128 K over a five year span with 20% down on a 5 year 4% note and all other taxes, license and FORSEEABLE operational cost based on 12,500 miles per year and $2.20 gas and tax burdens on those wages CLEARED AFTER TAXES used to pay that cost leaving you with a $90,000 hole in your pocket and a rusted out $10,000 truck with over 62 thousand miles on it, if your average.

 

Why would I want a fully optioned out one at twice the price?

 

I can do allot of maintenance for a hundred thousand dollars Andy.

In fact I break even at $100K in maintenance that is above and beyond normal 'wear and tear'. 

 

[aseibel]

14 hours ago, Grumpy Bear said:

License, a title and some plates 

It will also require full coverage insurance.

It will have an operating expense paid for by wages that are taxed both as that money is made and as it is spent and all of that on the CLEARED AFTER TAX dollars used to pay those expenses.

A very interesting way to consider the total cost of owning a vehicle. 

I'd just like to point out that some of your costs are relatively fixed: licence, plates, insurance, fuel, tires, oil changes. So those will be the same whether you are driving a brand new Denali or an old rusty relic. You can't really include those into the money you are losing by purchasing a new vehicle. Those are just the cost to get to work every day.

 

But, this exercise does show why it is much wiser to buy a 5 year old used vehicle for 63% less than the cost of new and drive it for 100,000+ miles. But that's not the way to keep up with the Jones.

Edited January 8, 2020 by aseibel

[j-ten-ner]

13 hours ago, Grumpy Bear said:

Ah a reality question. Average Joe. No rust mediation or prevention but thoughtfully maintained. Location will have a great bearing on this as well as how average Joe really is. Dry south and private who has his head about him? 20 years body, 500,000 or more miles. Barring the unforeseen. Deer, drunks, hurricane etc. Rustbelt cement contractor....yea...5 years, 150,000 miles. That's the ends of the curve so what....10 to 12 body and 200,000 plus be about the middle of the road.

 

One of your premises has to do with a pet peeve of mine. Worth v Value. Joe values a thing at the 'general consensus' of some bankers idea of value. My view has more to do with replacement of my initial cost which as it works out is four to five times greater than the stick price you paid. Here's a reprint from Yes Dear below:  

 

I buy a new truck that cost $1. How will that work out.

 

State SALES tax is 6% so I need $1.06. But I need $1.06 AFTER TAXES. State, Federal, Social Security and Medicare on my wages are about 17%. My $1.06 is then 83% of some number or $1.28 or $280 per thousand of the sale. Pretty steep but it gets much worse.

 

Trucks need a license, a title and some plates which are more taxes so I need more wages CLEARED AFTER TAXES. In this state 20% of the plate is TAXED as income. So yes. I get taxed when I earn. Taxed when I spend and taxed on the earning and spending on some ADDITIONAL part of the plate TAX. A tax on the taxed money used to pay the tax. I love Illinois.

 

If that buy requires a note it will have an interest rate and I will have to pay that interest with wages CLEARED AFTER TAXES.

 

It will also require full coverage insurance. I need more wages CLEARED AFTER TAXES.

 

It will have an operating expense paid for by wages that are taxed both as that money is made and as it is spent and all of that on the CLEARED AFTER TAX dollars used to pay those expenses.

 

It will depreciate and according to KBB over five years I will lose 63% of the initial purchase price which I won’t pay taxes on but unless I’m a business I can’t write off either. Even if I am a business my write off is amortized over five years and against the taxes paid on my gross earnings not off my taxes directly. True of the interest as well. Let me say that straighter. If I pay a dollar in interest or claim a dollar in depreciation I don’t get a dollar off my taxes. I get a dollar off my gross so I pay taxes on $999 instead of a $1000 and save less than 2 cents on that dollar. I don’t save anything. What I have done is light a fire to $18K.

 

Let’s put some numbers to this. A $28 K truck would cost @ $128 K over a five year span with 20% down on a 5 year 4% note and all other taxes, license and FORSEEABLE operational cost based on 12,500 miles per year and $2.20 gas and tax burdens on those wages CLEARED AFTER TAXES used to pay that cost leaving you with a $90,000 hole in your pocket and a rusted out $10,000 truck with over 62 thousand miles on it, if your average.

 

Why would I want a fully optioned out one at twice the price?

 

I can do allot of maintenance for a hundred thousand dollars Andy.

In fact I break even at $100K in maintenance that is above and beyond normal 'wear and tear'. 

 

It's amazing what some people think their cars/trucks cost them.

A colleague answered my question, what he spends on his truck driving 160km every day to work and back home with: "...about 20 bucks on fuel...".

He didn't believe me when I told him that my truck cost me 0.32 cents per km.

And my math is just a rough estimate. All the cost attached to my truck divided by the km driven in a year.

So, my truck with 193,000km on the clock almost hits 62K in 6 years of ownership.

No, I haven't taken the double and triple tax into account.

 

so long

j-ten-ner

Edited January 8, 2020 by j-ten-ner

[Grumpy Bear]

4 hours ago, aseibel said:

A very interesting way to consider the total cost of owning a vehicle. 

I'd just like to point out that some of your costs are relatively fixed: licence, plates, insurance, fuel, tires, oil changes. So those will be the same whether you are driving a brand new Denali or an old rusty relic. You can't really include those into the money you are losing by purchasing a new vehicle. Those are just the cost to get to work every day.

 

But, this exercise does show why it is much wiser to buy a 5 year old used vehicle for 63% of the cost of new and drive it for 100,000+ miles. But that's not the way to keep up with the Jones.

  

FYI, 1965 dollars bought 40% more goods than todays dollars.

So yea, I can.

And I will. 

 

Time value of money makes anything in the stream of time more expensive tomorrow than today. Gap value as you point out is HUGE.  Future operating cost on a paid for truck is indeed lower than that of a new truck. Like I am not required to carry full coverage on one not financed. Shall I continue? 

 

People use to tell me I was an idiot for paying off my home. Tax right off they cried! I would point out that over 30 years on a 7% note you pay triple for that home just in interest. You save pennies on the dollar in taxes on property taxes and interest. I saved out of pocket a quarter of a million dollars by paying my 30 year note in under 7. I didn't give the bank $11,900 in interest on $12,000 in payments the 10 years either. I could spend 12 K in interest or save 3K in taxes. No brain' r. 

 

There is no way anyone will ever convince me that buying a new anything every three years is cheaper than maintaining my first buy for 12 to 15 years. You just can't make that math work EVER. 

[davester]

Yeah, 5 years ago, I bought a 10 year old truck for $5.5k.  Spent about another $5k in parts and a parts truck (and a bunch of my time) getting it working and looking good, and another couple grand in wear parts (ball joints, brakes, stuff like that).  Buying a similar truck, but new, is maybe $80k (3500 cab&chassis w flatbed).  Those monthly payments are WAY more than the cost of fixing whatever goes wrong with my truck.  I plan on running it into the ground...

[aseibel]

12 hours ago, j-ten-ner said:

He didn't believe me when I told him that my truck cost me 0.32 cents per km.

And my math is just a rough estimate. All the cost attached to my truck divided by the km driven in a year.

Exactly. But your fuel, oil changes, tires are fixed costs and independent of the age of the vehicle. Those costs add into the per mile or daily cost to operate but won't change (much) if you buy a new one.

In some states you may catch a break on license plates, (not in WI, a truck licence plate is always the same price until it's a "collector") Same goes for insurance, you can save some pennies by removing collision or comprehensive if your ride is old, but that's your choice.

Edited January 8, 2020 by aseibel

[aseibel]

8 hours ago, Grumpy Bear said:

  

FYI, 1965 dollars bought 40% more goods than todays dollars.

So yea, I can.

And I will. 

 

Time value of money makes anything in the stream of time more expensive tomorrow than today. Gap value as you point out is HUGE.  Future operating cost on a paid for truck is indeed lower than that of a new truck. Like I am not required to carry full coverage on one not financed. Shall I continue? 

Of course you are correct about the future value of money. But I can't buy 10,000 gallons of fuel or a lifetime of tires today and store them until I need it. Same with license plates and insurance- I don't know of a way to pay for next year's until the calendar turns over. So those expenses will always be paid by the dollar when you have to buy it. Yes, the cost goes up by ~3% each year.

 

All I'm getting at is this: in your example from Yes Dear, they added in the daily costs to drive any vehicle into the cost of purchasing a new one. You have to subtract out your fixed daily (or per mile) costs if you are going to compare it to the money you are throwing away when you buy new. You also stated you could spend 100,000 on repairs and come out even. But again, using their math, that is pre-tax income, so you might take 100k out of your paycheck, but after taxes only have around $80,000 left for parts.

 

The biggest point we agree on is the amount of money people throw away financing new vehicles. That alone is why I want to keep driving my paid off car as long as I can.

[Grumpy Bear]

4 hours ago, aseibel said:

Of course you are correct about the future value of money. But I can't buy 10,000 gallons of fuel or a lifetime of tires today and store them until I need it. Same with license plates and insurance- I don't know of a way to pay for next year's until the calendar turns over. So those expenses will always be paid by the dollar when you have to buy it. Yes, the cost goes up by ~3% each year.

 

All I'm getting at is this: in your example from Yes Dear, they added in the daily costs to drive any vehicle into the cost of purchasing a new one. You have to subtract out your fixed daily (or per mile) costs if you are going to compare it to the money you are throwing away when you buy new. You also stated you could spend 100,000 on repairs and come out even. But again, using their math, that is pre-tax income, so you might take 100k out of your paycheck, but after taxes only have around $80,000 left for parts.

 

The biggest point we agree on is the amount of money people throw away financing new vehicles. That alone is why I want to keep driving my paid off car as long as I can.

Not exactly true but I see how you are getting that idea. I am simply 'costing' the truck as if it were the only one I'd ever own. Which is what forever means, right? It was an attempt to show that value, worth and cost are all separate things and that cost is MUCH higher than Joe Average believes it to be. People are quite willing to give away their lives to others for someone else's personal advancement. I'm not one of them and yet...to a large degree...it is in fact unavoidable. 

 

Try it another way. Let's say a guy buys a new truck. Let's give it a sale price of $50K Three years latter it's retail value is roughly $30K according to Edmunds (F-150 Ford i.e.). Your not going to get in trade it's retail value are you? According to Cars Direct average 3 year trade values are about 45% or $23K. The new trucks MSRP will have risen about 10% in three years so now $55K leaving you $32 K upside down on the trade. You have a new truck but you also get to repay $87K. Now keep doing that every three years for 21 years and tell my how much money I can speed on repairs, rentals and whatever else I desire. Several times the original MSRP of the first truck if held 21 years. This gets about 25% better if I buy and trade one year old trucks instead of new so yes I save a boatload of money do that but still could replace the entire drive line and refurbish the body several times and still have change in my pocket at the end of 21 years. Seriously if I had know this as an 18 year old I could have paid for my house with the money didn't spend on transportation. 

Edited January 8, 2020 by Grumpy Bear

[aseibel]

5 minutes ago, Grumpy Bear said:

Try it another way. Let's say a guy buys a new truck. Let's give it a sale price of $50K Three years latter it's retail value is roughly $30K according to Edmunds (F-150 Ford i.e.). Your not going to get in trade it's retail value are you? According to Cars Direct average 3 year trade values are about 45% or $23K. The new trucks MSRP will have risen about 10% in three years so now $55K leaving you $32 K upside down on the trade. You have a new truck but you also get to repay $87K. Now keep doing that every three years for 21 years and tell my how much money I can speed on repairs, rentals and whatever else I desire. 

Your math checks out, but hopefully average Joe put some money down when he bought the first truck and paid off the loan (or at least some of it) before trading in. I know there are people who trade-in with no equity and refinance their old loan into a new one. If someone has to drive a new truck so badly that they take on an additional $32k of debt every 3 years, that's on him. Then, don't forget to add in another $2,000 for new aftermarket wheels & tires on each new ride. (The only thing he has going for him is no maintenance costs, since he always is under warranty. I think for some people, that peace of mind justifies the high cost.)

 

Your math is comparing the most frugal method possible (yours) against the stupidest possible thing a person can do with their money. Most of us lie somewhere in-between. For everybody on this forum asking how to spend their money on mods, there is another truck owner like my dad who's only mod is a camper cover and he keeps it until the wheels fall off.

 

At the end of the day, we both agree that the fewer times you buy a vehicle, and longer time you keep each one running, the better off your bank account will be.

[Grumpy Bear]

23 hours ago, aseibel said:

At the end of the day, we both agree that the fewer times you buy a vehicle, and longer time you keep each one running, the better off your bank account will be.

BINGO

[Grumpy Bear]

On 1/8/2020 at 1:44 AM, davester said:

Those monthly payments are WAY more than the cost of fixing whatever goes wrong with my truck.  

At a boy davester!!