Coronavirus

Grumpy Bear · May 4, 2020

10 minutes ago, The Zip said:

Didn't know there was enough summer data from the Southern Hemisphere for them to adequately know the impact of outside heat on C-19. It would make sense to me heat will have an impact, I lose a gasket over 70. Hope the fella is wrong, ...

Ecuador, Colombia, Brazil, Sao Tome & Principe, Gabon, Republic of the Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Maldives, Indonesia and Kiribati. Some of these are lower population and not really places people from China and Italy go.

These 13 are on the equator. Summer 24/7/365. Ones in black have the densest populations. Brazil was in the news. Malaysia and the Philippines, Peru is ugly.

You could also look at Chile, Australia and South Africa data.

The Zip · May 4, 2020

We better hope heat has an impact, I'm old enough to know there is nothing worse than a summertime bug. If this mutates faster than science, we won't be able to keep up.

The Zip · May 4, 2020

19 minutes ago, Grumpy Bear said:

Ecuador, Colombia, Brazil, Sao Tome & Principe, Gabon, Republic of the Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Maldives, Indonesia and Kiribati. Some of these are lower population and not really places people from China and Italy go.

These 13 are on the equator. Summer 24/7/365. Ones in black have the densest populations. Brazil was in the news. Malaysia and the Philippines, Peru is ugly.

You could also look at Chile, Australia and South Africa data.

Not good. On the bright side, there is enough science going on that someone should be able to package a silver bullet, or at least a bronze one.

Cpl_Punishment · May 5, 2020

6 hours ago, davester said:

Nothing in that video says anybody gets more money for someone to be labelled as having died from Covid-19 vs having something else on their death certificate.

Agreed. I don't see any problem with saying you presume a death is due to covid if the circumstances make it likely.

davester · May 5, 2020

6 minutes ago, Cpl_Punishment said:

Agreed. I don't see any problem with saying you presume a death is due to covid if the circumstances make it likely.

That particular doctor basically said that, for him, virus's don't kill anybody. It's always something else, like the heart or lungs failing, with a virus only possibly being a contributing factor. So, for him, there are zero Covid-19 deaths, and zero flu deaths, etc... And sure, from an absolutely strict technical viewpoint, it's true. But, in real life, these death figures are,deaths of people who would still be alive if they didn't get Covid-19.

As a side note, it's odd that the Doctor/State Senator claims to have received an official document pushing him to list patients as having Covid-19 without a confirmed test, but doesn't make that document available.

Cpl_Punishment · May 5, 2020

24 minutes ago, davester said:

That particular doctor basically said that, for him, virus's don't kill anybody. It's always something else, like the heart or lungs failing, with a virus only possibly being a contributing factor. So, for him, there are zero Covid-19 deaths, and zero flu deaths, etc... And sure, from an absolutely strict technical viewpoint, it's true. But, in real life, these death figures are,deaths of people who would still be alive if they didn't get Covid-19.

As a side note, it's odd that the Doctor/State Senator claims to have received an official document pushing him to list patients as having Covid-19 without a confirmed test, but doesn't make that document available.

I guess in my opinion, if someone dies of ARDS after having a cough and fever, why would I waste one of my COVID-19 tests, of which I have a limited number, on them given that they're already dead?

davester · May 5, 2020

...and, if that Doctor/State Senator truly felt pressured by that document to list people has having Covid-19 that he believed didn't have it, solely so whatever hospital/clinic would get some more money for providing services to that patient, he should:

a) be contacting the head of that facility tell them that they are defrauding the federal gov't

b) be contacting the police and medicare that the facility may be defrauding the federal gov't and provide that document to them as proof

But, given that he didn't mention doing either of those things, it is unlikely there is much to his claim of undue pressure to list patients as having Covid-19 when they don't have it.

Edit: Alternately, he's fine with defrauding the gov't for personal gain, he's just got a problem with the fact that the pandemic numbers make his god look bad.

Edited May 5, 2020 by davester

Cpl_Punishment · May 5, 2020

22 minutes ago, davester said:

...and, if that Doctor/State Senator truly felt pressured by that document to list people has having Covid-19 that he believed didn't have it, solely so whatever hospital/clinic would get some more money for providing services to that patient, he should:

a) be contacting the head of that facility tell them that they are defrauding the federal gov't

b) be contacting the police and medicare that the facility may be defrauding the federal gov't and provide that document to them as proof

But, given that he didn't mention doing either of those things, it is unlikely there is much to his claim of undue pressure to list patients as having Covid-19 when they don't have it.

Correct. Doctors are professionals and, as such, are bound to their association and to the public by a strict code of ethics.

Turd Ferguson · May 5, 2020

Today, COVID-19 moves into second place in USA history.

H1N1 1918 675,000 dead USA
H2H2 1957 116,000 dead USA
2SARS 2020 68,276 dead USA and counting.
H3N2 1968 68,000 dead USA
H1N1 2009 12,469 dead USA mutation of 1918 strain.

Heard the Surgeon General say not to expect this to die off in warm weather. Southern Hemisphere didn't escape it in the middle of their summer. D'oh!

Just to be clear. I'm actually for opening up. Just not in places where it is still growing exponentially.

CDC says there are 38,576 COVID-19 deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Grumpy Bear · May 5, 2020

1 hour ago, davester said:

That particular doctor basically said that, for him, virus's don't kill anybody. It's always something else, like the heart or lungs failing, with a virus only possibly being a contributing factor. So, for him, there are zero Covid-19 deaths, and zero flu deaths, etc... And sure, from an absolutely strict technical viewpoint, it's true. But, in real life, these death figures are,deaths of people who would still be alive if they didn't get Covid-19.

As a side note, it's odd that the Doctor/State Senator claims to have received an official document pushing him to list patients as having Covid-19 without a confirmed test, but doesn't make that document available.

So if I understand correctly my brother who had a aortic aneurysm and died didn't die for an aortic aneurysm but cerebral hypoxia and my neighbor who caught a bullet in the chest didn't die from a GSW but …..heart failure?

Both true stories BTW. This doctor......don't get me started. :bs:

Edited May 5, 2020 by Grumpy Bear

Grumpy Bear · May 5, 2020

1 hour ago, Turd Ferguson said:

CDC says there are 38,576 COVID-19 deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Use it all not just the parts you like. Interesting note and on point. Most of the COVID-19 deaths end stage is pneumonia. When pneumonia AND COVID-19 are confirmed pneumonia is listed as the cause of death even though the virus caused the pneumonia. (red ALL in red below) You didn't include the entire and complete columns of this report to show those numbers. Add those and note the two week delay. in reporting and the 4 week delay in confirmation. It's why it is called a PROVISIONAL report. There were 17,122 such cases. That's almost 56K with two to four weeks data in CDC limbo.

NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period.

The provisional counts for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deaths are based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of the date specified. It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

Comparing data in this report to other sources

Provisional death counts in this report will not match counts in other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. Death data, once received and processed by National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), are tabulated by the state or jurisdiction in which the death occurred. Death counts are not tabulated by the decedent’s state of residence. COVID-19 deaths may also be classified or defined differently in various reporting and surveillance systems. Death counts in this report include laboratory confirmed COVID-19 deaths and clinically confirmed COVID-19 deaths. This includes deaths where COVID-19 is listed as a “presumed” or “probable” cause. Some local and state health departments only report laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths. This may partly account for differences between NCHS reported death counts and death counts reported in other sources. Provisional counts reported here track approximately 1–2 weeks behind other published data sources on the number of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. (1,2,3).

Nature and sources of data

Provisional death counts are based on death records received and processed by NCHS as of a specified cutoff date. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia. NCHS receives the death records from state vital registration offices through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. Provisional data are based on available records that meet certain data quality criteria at the time of analysis and may not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period especially for more recent periods. Estimates of completeness are provided. Therefore, they should not be considered comparable with final data and are subject to change.

Cause-of-death classification and definition of deaths

Mortality statistics are compiled in accordance with World Health Organization (WHO) regulations specifying that WHO member nations classify and code causes of death with the current revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD). ICD provides the basic guidance used in virtually all countries to code and classify causes of death. It provides not only disease, injury, and poisoning categories but also the rules used to select the single underlying cause of death for tabulation from the several diagnoses that may be reported on a single death certificate, as well as definitions, tabulation lists, the format of the death certificate, and regulations on use of the classification. Causes of death for data presented in this report were coded according to ICD guidelines described in annual issues of Part 2a of the NCHS Instruction Manual (4).

Coronavirus disease deaths are identified using the ICD–10 code U07.1. Deaths are coded to U07.1 when coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID-19 are reported as a cause that contributed to death on the death certificate. These can include laboratory confirmed cases, as well as cases without laboratory confirmation. If the certifier suspects COVID-19 or determines it was likely (e.g., the circumstances were compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), they can report COVID-19 as “probable” or “presumed” on the death certificate (5, 6).

Pneumonia deaths are identified using multiple cause-of-death codes from the 10th Revision of ICD (ICD–10): J12–J18, excluding deaths that involve influenza (J09–J11). Influenza deaths are identified from the ICD–10 codes J09–J11, and include deaths with pneumonia or COVID-19 listed as a contributing cause of death.

Estimated completeness of data

Provisional data are incomplete, and the level of completeness varies by jurisdiction, week, decedent’s age, and cause of death. Until data for a calendar year are finalized, typically in December of the following year, completeness of provisional data cannot be determined. However, completeness can be estimated in a variety of ways. Surveillance systems that rely on weekly monitoring of provisional mortality data, such as CDC’s FluView Interactive mortality surveillance (7), estimate completeness by comparing the count of deaths in a given week of the current year to the average count of deaths in that same week of the previous 3 years. These estimates can be generated for specific causes of death, jurisdictions, and age groups, and updated on a weekly or daily basis. For the purposes of COVID-19 surveillance, completeness is approximated by the comparing the provisional number of deaths received to the number of expected deaths based on prior years data. Percent of expected deaths provided in this data release are based on the total count of deaths in the most recent weeks of the current year, compared with an average across the same weeks of the three previous years (i.e., 2017–2019). These estimates of completeness are calculated by week, jurisdiction of occurrence, and age group.

It is important to note that the true levels of completeness are unknown, and the estimates provided here are only a proxy. In cases where mortality rates are increasing rapidly, particularly when excess deaths due to a novel cause are occurring, values for completeness for recent weeks may exceed 100% even when NCHS has yet to receive all available data. Conversely, if the number of deaths was elevated in prior years due to a severe flu season, for example, estimated completeness in the most recent weeks may be lower than the true value. To avoid relying too heavily on comparisons to a single week of a single prior year, estimates of completeness included in this release are based on the average counts in a given week across 3 prior years (e.g., the 12th week of 2017, 2018, and 2019).

Percent of expected deaths provided in this release are shown to provide context for interpreting provisional counts of COVID-19 deaths and deaths due to related causes. Where estimated values are high (e.g., greater than 100%), this suggests that mortality is higher in 2020 relative to the same weeks of prior years. Where estimated values of completeness are low, this could indicate that data are incomplete due to delayed reporting, or that mortality is lower in 2020 compared with prior years, or some combination of these factors.

Delays in reporting

Provisional counts of deaths are underestimated relative to final counts. This is due to the many steps involved in reporting death certificate data. When a death occurs, a certifier (e.g. physician, medical examiner or coroner) will complete the death certificate with the underlying cause of death and any contributing causes of death. In some cases, laboratory tests or autopsy results may be required to determine the cause of death. Completed death certificate are sent to the state vital records office and then to NCHS for cause of death coding. At NCHS, about 80% of deaths are automatically processed and coded within seconds, but 20% of deaths need to manually coded, or coded by a person. Deaths involving certain conditions such as influenza and pneumonia are more likely to require manual coding than other causes of death. Furthermore, all deaths with COVID-19 are manually coded. Death certificates are typically manually coded within 7 days of receipt, although the coding delay can grow if there is a large increase in the number of deaths. As a result, underestimation of the number of deaths may be greater for certain causes of death than others.

Previous analyses of provisional data completeness from 2015 suggested that mortality data is approximately 27% complete within 2 weeks, 54% complete within 4 weeks, and at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred (8). Pneumonia deaths are 26% complete within 2 weeks, 52% complete within 4 weeks, and 72% complete within 8 weeks (unpublished). Data timeliness has improved in recent years, and current timeliness is likely higher than published rates.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Grumpy Bear

Grumpy Bear · May 5, 2020

Fa-get-a-bout-it.

Andrew Cuomo. Anybody catch his brief today 5/4/2020? The FULL brief carried on C-SPAN? Amazingly simple explanations in every phase of the brief. This is the raw data. This is the data crunched and graphed and their trends. This is what it tells us. This is what we are looking for. These are the conditions that need to be met. These are the phases and how they unfold and WHY. This is how long it will take to see a result from this phase to start the second. This is what we learned. This is what we know. This is what we DON"T KNOW, WHAT NOBODY KNOWS. Here's what's been tired and worked and what's been tried and failed (elsewhere in the world) Here is your laundry list of things to get in place and supplies to have BY THAT DATE, required PER CAPITA. Here's a list of people we talked to and you can talk to. These are your State resources and your Federal resources. This is the day we COULD start IF your region meets ALL parameters. On that day if you don't meet the criteria you don't open. (Somebody has a team of Six Sigma Black Belts)

Data driven, data derived, data guided, data adjusted.

NO emotion. No celebrity. NO politics. NO pleading wishes. NO whiners.

Calm, clear, concise, transparent and rational.

He speaks to the lowest ability in the room so that when done NO ONE can say they don't understand.

Imagine that.

I'm not a poly-tics person but I do appreciate a clear headed thinker who's more afraid of getting it wrong than not getting reelected.

The Zip · May 5, 2020

1 hour ago, Grumpy Bear said:

Andrew Cuomo... Amazingly simple explanations in every phase of the brief...speaks to the lowest ability in the room ...appreciate a clear headed thinker who's more afraid of getting it wrong than not getting reelected.

I can agree with that, although your previous post was waayyy too much info for me.

davester · May 5, 2020

Lots of those "we just want to get back to our lives, we'll follow rules so we can do that" people out there...

Michigan: Person shoots guard in the head when he won't let them into store without a mask.

Beaches/Parks: Everywhere, not a lot of social distancing, bazillion warning given out.

Oklahoma: officials had to remove regulations for wearing masks because workers in multiple stores and restaurants were being threatened by people not wearing masks

Texas: A park ranger telling people to disperse into a park to maintain social distancing, is made fun of, and pushed into a lake.

Truly special people. You have zero guesses who their god is.

Edited May 5, 2020 by davester

Grumpy Bear · May 5, 2020

5 hours ago, davester said:

Lots of those "we just want to get back to our lives, we'll follow rules so we can do that" people out there...

Michigan: Person shoots guard in the head when he won't let them into store without a mask.

Beaches/Parks: Everywhere, not a lot of social distancing, bazillion warning given out.

Oklahoma: officials had to remove regulations for wearing masks because workers in multiple stores and restaurants were being threatened by people not wearing masks

Texas: A park ranger telling people to disperse into a park to maintain social distancing, is made fun of, and pushed into a lake.

Truly special people. You have zero guesses who their god is.

John 12:31 John 147:30 Ephesians 2:2 You mean that guy? (Satan?) Agreed.

I've spent my days doing other than keeping up on this thing fully so I missed many of your examples but I did see the Florida beaches item. They closed that beach again for non compliance I read. Michigan....not the first 'gun' displayed in protest there.