How fast do you really drive?

Grumpy Bear · February 16, 2017

Standing in the Farm and Fleet the other day picking up what not for car care and this fella walks down the aisle with a cart cleaning the shelves clear of supplies. Stuff you would clean and detail with.

And so I remark, “You must detail for a living?”

“No” he replies. I run a business and supply the boys on my crew with trucks for work and I expect them to take care of it but I don’t expect them to do so from their own pockets”.

“Fair is fair” I say. “Can I ask you something?” I can see he’s in a hurry but…

“Shoot”. He pauses to give me the attention required to hear the query.

“If you found your boys left your trucks running for hours as a matter of course would that bother you?”

“Me? No but it would bother them. They would be looking for a new job”.

“What if they have a really good reason?”

“I can’t think of one good enough”. And on his merry way he went.

Okay then…there are differences in opinion and what I want to know is what impact that has on a basic statistic. Or more importantly can statistics ferret out the differences in those opinions.

The answer is already known. What isn’t known is the degree or magnitude those opinions will apply against the statistical evidence in this sampling. The skew. In this case it will not be knowable.

Did the statistics fail? Not hardly. Stat’s done care about opinions. Did opinions change? Nope and it wouldn’t matter even if they did. Stats can cover it. Why did this fail to launch?

Simple Simon met a pie man.

A few who held a certain opinion decided beforehand that they knew the outcome of the study before the study had been conducted. By and large people don’t care much for confrontation and will avoid it when possible. In a forum that is very possible by failing to comment even if you’re interested.

Does it matter. Nope. I got my answer. Did you?

Grumpy Bear · February 22, 2017

I'll bite, it wasn't a accurate way to calculate adverage MPH. People were pointing out why. We aren't sheep after all. To say there is a underlying psychological reason is a stretch.

The year is 2840. It is the next time there will be four perfect weeks in the month of February. Is this a prophecy? Nope. Is it the product of statistics? Nope. It is a result of doing a bit math.

2840 is also my prediction for a the length of time it will take for a majority of humans to adopt basic statistics making it normal.

There must be dozens of, perhaps hundreds of threads spread over as many forums on ‘fuel efficiency’. Not a one tells you anything useful. Why?

Oh where to start. Method certainly tops the list. Opinion isn’t far behind. Sample size and duration. Lack of basic understanding of statistics/data and analysis. Lack of a research goal. Axe grinding. Sales pitches. Ego interference. Narcissisms. Cherry picking.

Only those with a bit of training seem to understand that numbers don’t lie but liars use numbers…to all sorts of ends. Rarely is the truth one of them. Those with allot of training seem masters at the latter, are professionals and get paid to make the results favor a particular notion. Cooking the books.

Even if you could get past ‘all that’ you get stonewalled at the data collection phase. Bluntly, a lack of community cooperation. Fine.

None of this matters if you wish to know something badly enough. It just takes a bit longer. Cost a bit more. Actually gives a better result. More trustable anyway. I mean, who would lie to themselves IF they haven’t an audience?

True story about “normal’.

A few years ago I sought property tax relief. My home bought at one price in under seven years doubled in value according to the tax board. Then the housing market crashed. Remember that little episode? My taxes and the assessment continue to increase at double digit rates. I filed a protest which required an appraisal. That appraisal had to be presented at a hearing of a panel of members of the county tax commission. I brought my appraisal, the appraiser and my attorney which the board protested and did so unsuccessfully thanks to the presents of my lawyer.

During the hearing the head cook and bottle washer for the county took exception that the appraisal was based on a number of distressed properties that were under foreclosure stating that such the appraisal did not accurately represent the market and as such my protest would be denied.

I got this. I made note to the board that of the 52 homes in my immediate area that 39 were for sale and 35 were in foreclosure and stated…

“This IS the current market sir and I will gladly argue that case at the state tax appeals court”.

The result was…my property was revalued and one half the assessment and my taxes cut a bit more than half.

I don’t care if your truck idles 23 hours a day and is only driven 5 miles in that last hour. If that is the way it is operated then it matters not if the study is mpg or mph it is a valid number and when added to all other data the analysis is more than capable of discerning the difference.

Literally it would define the shape of the histograms distribution giving an accurate standard deviation of the central tendency. As much as one may protest that THEIR operating ‘normal’ would corrupt the result there are just as many who operate in the exact opposite mode that make the likelihood of a bias result exceedingly unlikely and mathematically infinitesimally improbable.

If you’re going to argue that miles divided by hours is an inaccurate method to determine average speed you will only be accurate in that statement IF there is but one point of data AND it is yours. For you…your stand makes perfect sense. For the statistical average of hundreds or thousands of drivers…not so much. It is why you use statistics. To learn the truth when the entire data set if filled with a smattering of nonconforming data.

Dnt · February 22, 2017

Grumpster Quote "I’ve won a wager with a psychologist"

How many emergency trips has your psychologist had to make over to your crib? That will get that average speed way up LMFAO

Somebody MIGHT be off their meds????????

Grumpy Bear · February 22, 2017

Grumpster Quote "I’ve won a wager with a psychologist"

How many emergency trips has your psychologist had to make over to your crib? That will get that average speed way up LMFAO

Somebody MIGHT be off their meds????????

Emergency trips? Why, none, thanks for asking. How kind of you to inquire into my welfare Darryl. Appointments on the other hand about one a month. We drink coffee and discus the nature of humanity. Sometimes about my reactions those natures. Sometimes about his awful ties. Sometimes we talk about you Darryl.

Human nature Darryl, was the thrust of the comment you so kindly quote out of context. Human nature.

Winning a bet placed on human nature isn't really a bet, is it Darryl? Sort of like betting on a sunrise happening tomorrow.

If you want to take something as sure as a sunrise personal...

Oh wait...you're trying to mock me...right...Oh OUCH...didn't see that coming. Boo-hoo.

Enjoy the sunrise Darryl. It is what you wanted, right? A bit of light cast on your cleverness?

And what did I want? Just some information. Sort of what a forum is for. How could I have ever been so inconsiderate and naive.

KARNUT · February 22, 2017

I think he was being funny and expressing an opinion. I think that happen a lot on here. To answer your original question 35 MPH. I hope that helps.

pSYCLONE · February 23, 2017

Ive got 170k on my 03 denali. I drive like a grandpa cause I know, as soon as I put it to the floor, my tranny will fall out.

Grumpy Bear · February 28, 2017

I think he was being funny and expressing an opinion. I think that happen a lot on here. To answer your original question 35 MPH. I hope that helps.

Having a single piece of information, even if it is a perfect piece of information cannot draw a conclusion that would hold for all holders of a single piece of perfect information. Not any more than a single board could build a home no matter how perfect the board. That said, an individual looking at a single board could write at thesis on a myriad of topics. You could debate the board till the cows come home and you would never have more than a thesis on your board.

Put thousands of people together who have one board and you can build a hotel all could befit from.

Here’s the problem with forums and social media in general. Okay there are many but I’ll focus on one. Actually the members do the focusing on….

ME

More to the point their view of the subject. Their board. Argue their personal board’s merits to death and never see the possibility of building anything with the combine resources. Just too much ME.

And yes your right, it does happen allot but it is not confined to just here. Yes it is, it would help if we could get enough boards to build something useful but my guess is we cannot. Time to let it die.

Chevor · March 3, 2017

Update

MikeNH · March 4, 2017

The Wrangler has slowed me down quite a bit. Used to drive pretty fast but the Wrangler is a terrible vehicle above 70.

sdeeter19555 · March 4, 2017

At one point they used the hours to determine how much idling you did in the diesel-powered pickups to justify not warranting things like cylinder wash down and the like...if you did a lot of idling, they gave you grief.

Hours would be a benefit to the soccer moms...my wife idles a lot waiting for the daughter after school...the oil smells like fuel pretty soon after changing. You could change by hours and not miles.

Sent from my SM-T350 using Tapatalk

Dnt · March 4, 2017

Grumpy Bear · March 4, 2017

That's an odd quote. Mainstream news has recently coined the phrase "Alternate Facts". Post Trump.

Maybe you've heard this one, Numbers don't lie but liars use numbers.

Perhaps you would like some of actually original work, "Don't mistake education for intelligence. You have allot of the former and not much of the latter".

Or perhaps, "People that quote clever people aren't all that clever".

Dnt · March 4, 2017

Wait, there was a quote? I was looking at the storm clouds in the pic and the way the dark clouds were covering the landscape! Hmm completely missed that....my bad.

Grumpy Bear · March 5, 2017

Wait, there was a quote? I was looking at the storm clouds in the pic and the way the dark clouds were covering the landscape! Hmm completely missed that....my bad.

Tell ya what Darryl. I have no interest in a school yard cat fight and you seem a fella that might actually know something the rest of the world does not. Okay. I like to think myself an open minded sort. I love to learn new things and I’m positive I don’t know it all. It's what winds my watch. So in the interest of fairness I'll bow to your knowing....so....

Show your proofs that the original question cannot be reliably subject to statistical inquiry.

And I mean PROOFS in the most literal terms. Mathematical proofs. I have no interest in your opinions. It isn’t a topic subject to opinion. It's a branch of mathematics and if you’re going to call BS on an entire branch of mathematics let's read your Doctoral Thesis on that subject.

KARNUT · March 5, 2017

I know I'm going to get in trouble I always been quite a rebel but I can't help it. Grumpy bear is lots of fun sometimes but reminds me of an ex father in law. Whenever he was around he dominated the room with conversation of stuff that was hard to understand, even for the many aggies that are in the family. Please GB dumb it down my head hurts. And (I think you put out some interesting stuff).