Coronavirus

[Grumpy Bear]

21 hours ago, CamGTP said:

Now this is where you can open a can of worms. Religion and "God" are only going to be correct for those that believe in it.

How true. Hebrews 12:6 (NKJV) agrees with you! "But without faith it is impossible to please Him, for he who comes to God must believe that He is, and that He is a rewarder of those who diligently seek Him."

 

Paul mentions at 2 Timothy 3:16  "All Scripture is inspired by God and profitable for teaching, for reproof, for correction, for training in righteousness;"

 

If you don't believe in God or the Bible it is useless you. Absolutely agree. 

 

I find it easier to believe in a all powerful intelligent being that was the "first cause' or creator, "intelligent design" that to believe the hundred trillion to one odds of sea water bringing forth life spontaneously a trillion times.

 

Then again I'm a logic guy and I see you are too by your listening choices. Hebrews 3:4 (NAS) notes this simple to follow logic, " For every house is built by someone, but the builder of all things is God".

 

Pretty sure my house didn't assemble itself over any period of time. How much more difficult would it be for a living thing to do so?  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Grumpy Bear]

Data.... Here's the problem with this whole 'accuracy of the data' argument. Is the data corrupt? Yes! All data is corrupt and yet we use it. Why? Because even imperfect data 'trends' correctly. The argument isn't IF but how how much and does that degree matter in the calculation of a reasonable and USEFUL result. The answer to that is in the theory of statistics itself. A thing called probability. I could take an hour and explain that or just say NO. 

 

The blue line in this graph is the RAW data. The yellow line the average of averages on a 14 period sampling. Note that the data is not a uniform distribution. Some guys is late to dinner and says I'll report it tomorrow. Another data center waits a few days to confirm accuracy or clear some political hurdle. Somebody lies from the heart. The stats filter that crap out. 

 

The premise from those who BOO the data is that it is GROSSLY misreported in a SCALE that matters. And to that region it may but diluted by the national numbers, the world numbers it isn't even a blip on the radar. There isn't enough political PULL in this country to corrupt the stats of the world stage. If you argue otherwise you argue in ignorance of the science and math. 

 

 

 

This second rise in now nearly equal to the first and this is not a second wave but a continuation of the first. I find it worrisome that it is more workman like in development. Fat lady is in warm ups. 

 

 

 

[The Zip]

35 minutes ago, Grumpy Bear said:

I could take an hour and explain that or just say NO. 

I'm not a statistics guy, but the explanation and graph makes sense to me.  The answer to the question above is NO.

[The Zip]

 

Heard Walmart is going to install and activate these around the registers when customers take off their mask. 

[KARNUT]

I believe mask and social distancing is helpful. I’ve been noticing these dashboards have been going up and down for awhile. Even in states with the most strident lock downs. So we’re probably on the right path sort of a complete cure. If that’s even probable. School opening will be interesting. So will flu season.


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[Thejet07]

Weird how this is not political


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[CamGTP]

[Grumpy Bear]

World charts only. 80,000 cases a day. That's were the world was when everyone got comfortable. Now, 250,000 cases per day and rising as can be seen in the cart above at an acceleration of about 3,000 new cases day over day and an increase of nearly 100 additional cases per day. More than a 300% increase! Not exactly a curve flattener. Allot of countries area actually declining and quite a flew flattening. But there are a hand full with scary trends. India leading which has a population of 1.38 BILLION people who live on top of each other. 17% of the world population and second only to China by a really small margin. 

 

[Grumpy Bear]

 

 

Adm. Brett Giroir, a physician who oversees the federal government's testing response, also said on Sunday that public mitigation measures such as wearing masks and avoiding crowds can reduce the spread of the virus, as medical experts learn more about how to treat it.

Giroir told NBC's Meet the Press that while there are some promising medical interventions, hydroxychloroquine — an anti-malaria drug touted repeatedly by President Trump — is not one of them.

After five randomized controlled trials, he said, there is no evidence that hydroxychloroquine is an effective treatment for the coronavirus. In response to a question about whether mixed messaging could lead to misuse of the drug, he said most physicians are not likely to prescribe it.

"I think most physicians and prescribers are evidence based and they're not influenced by whatever's on Twitter or anything else, and the evidence just doesn't show that hydroxychloroquine is effective right now," Giroir said. "I think we need to move on from that and talk about what is effective."

[davester]

That's the problem.  Doctors are fact-based, and Trump is twitter-based.  Everyone knows twitter is the best source of knowledge, particularly for new diseases.

[The Zip]

1 hour ago, Grumpy Bear said:

World charts only. 80,000 cases a day. That's were the world was when everyone got comfortable. Now, 250,000 cases per day and rising as can be seen in the cart above at an acceleration of about 3,000 new cases day over day and an increase of nearly 100 additional cases per day. More than a 300% increase! Not exactly a curve flattener. Allot of countries area actually declining and quite a flew flattening. But there are a hand full with scary trends. India leading which has a population of 1.38 BILLION people who live on top of each other. 17% of the world population and second only to China by a really small margin. 

 

Listening to the late LA news, they reported predictions of 11,000 deaths per week in the US for the month of August.  That's an increase of about 800 per week from July.

[The Zip]

29 minutes ago, davester said:

That's the problem.  Doctors are fact-based, and Trump is twitter-based.  Everyone knows twitter is the best source of knowledge, particularly for new diseases.

Man you're pretty witty, you got some jokes.

[The Zip]

With the government fast-tracking a vaccine from so many suppliers, a lot of folks I know will be hesitant to be the canary in the coal mine.  Folks tell me they believe the government have the economy versus their safety at heart and will not be willing to take the first vaccine from a company that was in it to win a race rather than get it right. 

 

Good vaccine or not, folks will probably take it with the same percentages as a flu shot.

Edited August 3, 2020 by The Zip

[The Zip]

Saw the result of a study on the evening news conducted in Pennsylvania, NY, Florida, California, and a couple other states.  The team swabbed arm chairs, lobby doors, pin pads, mail, packages, and some other things and sent the swabs in to be tested for the covid virus.  The results were reassuring that they didn't find any positive results in California and Pennsylvania.  NY had a small percentage of hits in the subway.  The most hits were in Miami, where they found 20% of the testing was positive for the virus , still small percentage. 

 

This could suggest the virus may live shorter on surfaces than reported or folks are doing a heck of a cleaning job. Good to know but still doesn't change anything I'm doing.

Edited August 3, 2020 by The Zip

[davester]

It's my understanding that the "fast-tracking" of the vaccines is by eliminating the wait between the testing stages

 

For example, going to stage 2 testing straight after stage 1, instead of spending a bunch of time evaluating the results of stage 1 to see if they should move on to stage 2 (but still doing the evaluation, and then stopping stage 2 if the evaluation is negative).  And starting production of the vaccine before the testing and approval is done, knowing that if the testing fails or the approval isn't given, they have to destroy the vaccine they've produced.  It's spending money to save time, but they aren't skipping the actual testing, and they have to go over the results of the testing at the end and get approval before they can being distributing the vaccine.