Coronavirus

[Thejet07]

 This isn't a war. I don't need to win it.  I ask questions. Post information. Watch the response. Enjoy my coffee.

 

If a person is in a burning building and scared for their life then by all means, try to save them

If they've pour gas on themselves and light it...

Stand back or they will take you with them

 

You sir have a cause and are on a mission.

I don't care what that mission is

Your just a curiosity

No need to "try"

There is no prize

Got my answer

 

 

 

 

 

So what you’re saying is you like to troll. That’s clear enough. Go enjoy your coffee. How are you still here? You post, someone responds and you try your best to belittle in your quip ways. You sir have the mission. Let’s get back to covid. The not so killer, killer. You should be happy you were wrong.


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[Grumpy Bear]

9 hours ago, Thejet07 said:

So what you’re saying is you like to troll. That’s clear enough. Go enjoy your coffee. How are you still here? You post, someone responds and you try your best to belittle in your quip ways. You sir have the mission. Let’s get back to covid. The not so killer, killer. You should be happy you were wrong.


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I would engage you on the facts IF I was getting rational replies.

If you reasoned on things.

If you offered something other that your  opinions

Arguing an opinion is irrational

It can't be treated with reason

You know this and yet....

 

If I share something I know.....I'm a narcissistic and arrogant

If I don't share something I know...............I'm an aloof jerk

If I don't know something..........I'm ignorant

If I share something in error................I'm stupid 

If I test by question your motives...........I'm a troll??

 

 

 

Well at least you funny!

 

 

Coffee break

 

 

 

[Ithan Henry]

As things settle down I've made some observations that I find interesting.

 

1)  When this all started, people were saying it's overhyped and not to bother them until it exceeds the flu numbers.  Well, it did, by a lot.  And now, those same people are changing their benchmark as to what will make this serious.  Stop moving the goal line.  Just admit that you'll never consider it serious unless it personally affects you.

 

2)  People really don't understand how science works.  This is a new virus, that they had no chance to study.  They had to extrapolate data from other viruses and adjust their recommendations along the way.  That's how science works.  It starts with a hypothesis and as we learn more we adjust our hypothesis.  People accept science when it helps them but condemn it when it doesn't fit their narrative.

 

3)  Everyone is out to get the President.  Hey, newsflash, this administration appointed Dr Birx, Dr Fauci and the Surgeon General, all who are giving the same advice.  But somehow, they're part of the far left trying to destroy this administration.  Well, you have two options here.  Either the experts he appointed are correct and you won't admit it because it makes the current administration look foolish.  Or the President is a terrible at determining talent, which is why he has a revolving door in this administration.  Pick one, those are the only two that fit.

 

Stay safe, it's clearly getting better now, and hopefully we'll get better news about the possibility of a vaccine sooner rather than later.  

Edited June 10, 2020 by Ithan Henry

[OnTheReel]

Sure, many were skeptical early on. Several scientists too. Rightfully so. They just didn’t get a seat at the table. With that in mind, ask yourself who really doesn’t know or care how science works. You may not like the answer.

I’m sure you’re aware, but for every one person who compared it to the flu two months ago, there were ten dopes following health experts in saying 1.8 million people in the country would be dead. Of course neither person was right, but one was still way closer. Which one?
 

And moving goal posts? Remember two weeks to flatten the curve? Yeah.

 

There is nothing interesting, courageous or original about any of yours or Grumpy’s observations. They fall in line with people who have bought into the “experts” take from day one and can’t adjust their positions to match reality. 

[Grumpy Bear]

About 5 weeks ago the number of new cases WORLD WIDE had plateaued around 80K a day and for a few days even had a negative acceleration. Mean fewer cases on a 14 day average than the preceding day. 

 

One week later it started going up again and on that same 14 day moving average has been increasing in acceleration every day since so that as of yesterday we are now seeing 1600 new cases per day per day. Yea, each day is a new peak 1600 higher than the day before. 

 

Daily rate now stands no longer at 80,000 per day but 116,000 per day, again each day 1600 higher than the day before. (14 period moving average). 

 

A few days ago the single most voracious county by rate and acceleration, Brazil, has now discontinued daily tallies for death, new infections and hospitalizations. Yes the country that said let her rip......sinking like the Titanic. You can't find a news service than has not reported on this. 

[Ithan Henry]

6 minutes ago, OnTheReel said:

There is nothing interesting, courageous or original about any of yours or Grumpy’s observations. They fall in line with people who have bought into the “experts” take from day one and can’t adjust their positions to match reality. 

I'm not trying to be interesting or flashy. I'm not someone that leans far left or right. I'm capable of reading the data and coming to my own conclusions. The reason I'm in line with the experts is because I have a background in statistics and understand that things change.

 

I've acknowledged that the numbers have changed and that one size fits all restrictions don't work.  I didn't condemn Georgia when they opened, instead I hoped they made the right decision and watched the stats. I said Cuomo was playing to the media and but still could see that the situation was serious. I'm near the epicenter and have seen how serious it can be.

 

I think what bothers people the most is that I don't treat politics like a sporting event. I don't root for one specific team. When mistakes are made I call them out no matter what side made it. More people should try that instead of defending their "team" at all costs.

[OnTheReel]

36 minutes ago, Ithan Henry said:

 

I've acknowledged that the numbers have changed and that one size fits all restrictions don't work.  I didn't condemn Georgia when they opened, instead I hoped they made the right decision and watched the stats. I said Cuomo was playing to the media and but still could see that the situation was serious. I'm near the epicenter and have seen how serious it can be.

 

I think what bothers people the most is that I don't treat politics like a sporting event. I don't root for one specific team. When mistakes are made I call them out no matter what side made it. More people should try that instead of defending their "team" at all costs.

I didn’t take the political bait the first time and won’t take it now. All I can say is you’ve seen how serious the virus can be, and what states have done the worst jobs managing it. Trump and Fauci, wrong or right, are relatively inconsequential at this point.

 

Many of the posts as of late have been pertaining to our reaction/ overreaction, and that’s all I’m interested in so this circus act doesn’t continue, or repeat itself with every new bug.

 

With every state that opens, and with every one that never closed, the case is made stronger that lockdowns and other freedom-stripping measures were at best ineffective. I personally take it further and say they were extremely damaging. The cure was worse than the disease.

If one has to pull stats from a third world country to argue in favor of lockdowns here, you’ve proven my point.

[Ithan Henry]

3 minutes ago, OnTheReel said:

I didn’t take the political bait the first time and won’t take it now. All I can say is you’ve seen how serious the virus can be, and what states have done the worst jobs managing it. Trump and Fauci, wrong or right, are relatively inconsequential at this point.

 

Many of the posts as of late have been pertaining to our reaction/ overreaction, and that’s all I’m interested in so this circus act doesn’t continue, or repeat itself with every new bug.

 

With every state that opens, and with every one that never closed, the case is made stronger that lockdowns and other freedom-stripping measures were at best ineffective. I personally take it further and say they were extremely damaging. The cure was worse than the disease.

If one has to pull stats from a third world country to argue in favor of lockdowns here, you’ve proven my point.

I'm not here to bait anyone, I simply ain't got time for that. As for NJ, I've expressed my opinion that Gov Murphy did an excellent job in the beginning. We were unfortunately affected by a very dense population in the northern part of the state that works with NYC. Now, I have also stated that I believed my students should have a chance to experience graduation. I just found out today that we'll have pools open before graduations are allowed which confused and upset me.

 

For where I am, the shutdown was necessary, but should have moved towards opening about 2-3 weeks sooner. Did all the states need to take the same precautions as NJ? Obviously not. I only came back into this topic after I saw all the nonsense about conspiracy theories regarding this being some sort of political plot.

 

As far as us looking back and critiquing what happened, yes we absolutely need to study how we responded and what we can do better next time. That's obvious and to not do so would be irresponsible. But to criticize, well as I said weeks ago hindsight bias is always 20-20.

Being angry because it wasn't as bad as we thought seems irrational. I'm happy it's not as bad as we thought.  Let's figure out how not to have this happen again.

[The Zip]

Hey, it's grown *** men on this forum.  Trying to convince or reason your point is right, is not going to happen.  People believe what they want to believe, not what a stranger on a forum tell them to believe.

 

State your fact, get your likes, beat your chest, then "just breathe".

[The Zip]

On 6/9/2020 at 4:51 PM, Cpl_Punishment said:

I'd still rather wear a mask... 

Not as democratic on an Air Force installation I frequent that averages over 30 thousand people (95% non-military) on a daily basis.  The lead guy/gal says you will wear masks.  You don't get to argue an option, but can decide your option.  If you're outside a vehicle not wearing a mask, military folks are snapped into place, non-military are directed to depart and/or denied entry onto the installation.  As direct as it may be, it can change immediately with an email message.

[Grumpy Bear]

Last nights 10 pm local news. We get Chicago stations with the dish so CBS 2 reporting on a first! Double lung transplant was done at Northwestern Medical on a gal in her 20's. The interview with the attending stated she was put on a vent day one and a few days later a machine (can't recall the name) that replaces both the lungs and the heart when the lungs can not longer exchange O2/CO2. The really icky part was they showed her Thorax X-RAY and the Covid-19 damaged lungs that were in a tray. Yea, the news guy warned us is was sick stuff but they were doing it anyway to show the savagery of this disease.  Kids...... I've seen buckshot look better. Cancer look better.....I've never seen anything quite like it. Blender material....

 

She was neither under nor over weight and in her 20's in otherwise good health. She was on the machines for SIX WEEKS until the virus cleared and a donor found. 

 

Pretty sure at my age such extraordinary measures would not have been an option.

 

That's a pretty good hospital.... 

[The Zip]

7 hours ago, Grumpy Bear said:

...put on a vent day one and a few days later a machine (can't recall the name) that replaces both the lungs and the heart when the lungs can not longer exchange O2/CO2.

Pneumonia, which causes problems with the lungs can be irritated or initiated by covid.  Symptoms and treatment are very similar with pneumonia resulting in 50K deaths per yr in the US.  We are double that number of deaths in 3 mths for covid.

 

Covid is conversation 1b in America right now, but if this slips to conversation 2 or 3, the death numbers can double the original 200K estimate by next Feb.  We should be in the window for test results from conversation 1a (protest).

 

Sidebar: Saw the ad-blocker comment on a different thread, yeah it's the bomb.

 

 

Edited June 13, 2020 by The Zip

[Grumpy Bear]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

 

I found Germany's charts of great interest. Especially the very bottom one on this page from the link above. Compare it to the remaining information and you may see, if your mind is open, the point that has been the trust of my entire conversation.

 

And what is that? 

 

Prevention of NEEDLESS DEATH.

 

Germany had this by the throat early and still spiked 27.42% mortality rate when, and read this carefully, the health care system was overrun. 

 

This lock down thing was never about preventing death. It was about preventing NEEDLESS DEATHS. 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

 

Italy spiked an 87.5% mortality rate early on. Yes, older population but 87.5% of that population is not and never was over 60 years of age. It took out the young with the old. Why? Healthcare system overrun. NEEDLESS DEATH. 

 

Brazil won't post their charts and are now the second only to the USA in deaths, NEEDLESS DEATH. And they did it allot faster with 1/3 the population. 

 

Pneumonia lung inflammation caused by bacterial or viral infection, in which the air sacs fill with pus and may become solid. Inflammation may affect both lungs ( double pneumonia ), one lung ( single pneumonia ), or only certain lobes ( lobar pneumonia ).

 

COVID-19 isn't that. This virus destroys the alveoli of both lungs . You don't drown in you own pus like pneumonia, you suffocate like COPD, only allot faster. Took my father-in-law 15 years and the last week was insufferable to watch. They give you a drug so you don't thrash in panic because you can't get the bag off your head as you gasp for air flailing like a fish on a river bank. 

 

If you research death data for flue AND pneumonia over the last 10 years you will find the AVERAGE annual death rate closer to 30K not 50 or 60K. Talk about people cherry picking their data. This is well beyond the average.

 

In fact COVID-19 has now tied 1957 in death count in the USA.

116,000

Then you can add death from flu and pneumonia. 

 

Only 1918 stands taller now kids.

675,000 is the next marker

[Cpl_Punishment]

On 6/12/2020 at 1:00 PM, The Zip said:

Not as democratic on an Air Force installation I frequent that averages over 30 thousand people (95% non-military) on a daily basis.  The lead guy/gal says you will wear masks.  You don't get to argue an option, but can decide your option.  If you're outside a vehicle not wearing a mask, military folks are snapped into place, non-military are directed to depart and/or denied entry onto the installation.  As direct as it may be, it can change immediately with an email message.

Where I work, we have a fair number of requirements, though we're probably a little less strict than the Air Force. Everyone gets their temperature taken on their way on site. Have to wear a mask when passing people in the hallway. One person per office. One person per truck unless everyone is wearing a mask. Have to wear a mask if working within 6 feet of anyone else. 

[The Zip]

14 hours ago, Cpl_Punishment said:

...though we're probably a little less strict than the Air Force.

Actually easier and less confusing, "one" message for everyone at the same time.  This can work with a company of just employees, which is basically what an installation is about.  However,  this model definitely won't work for a business with customers, they'll just go shop somewhere else.