OCI, not when but why?

KARNUT · November 29, 2025

I’ve said this before. I don’t believe the manufacturers goal is just to get past the warranty. They like to say they’re the longest lasting. Over time Honda and Toyota with their up models have that reputation. People put up with them being one of loudest interiors at highway speeds for the longevity. They also have the longest oil change intervals. Kinda moronic I know. But it works for them. The average formula works for the average driver. I was in a Honda dealership yesterday getting an alternator installed. It was packed with buyers without that much incentives. The inspection of my Ridgeline gave me a good look on how it’s wearing. Good for people who need to plan ahead. Oil anxiety is only part of the equation.

OnTheReel · November 30, 2025

5 hours ago, KARNUT said:

I’ve said this before. I don’t believe the manufacturers goal is just to get past the warranty. They like to say they’re the longest lasting.

It doesn’t even have to be true for them to say it. See any Silverado ads lately? Touting J.D. Power highest initial quality and reliability? Who the hell did they pay off for that one since seemingly half their engines blow within 10,000 miles! And they care so much that they can’t even fix them correctly.

The other thing is when every other brand also makes garbage, having the longest lasting garbage tends to be a low bar.

KARNUT · November 30, 2025

31 minutes ago, OnTheReel said:

It doesn’t even have to be true for them to say it. See any Silverado ads lately? Touting J.D. Power highest initial quality and reliability? Who the hell did they pay off for that one since seemingly half their engines blow within 10,000 miles! And they care so much that they can’t even fix them correctly.

The other thing is when every other brand also makes garbage, having the longest lasting garbage tends to be a low bar.

Most manufacturers can make that claim either currently or in the past. There was a time GM could claim that. Some people can say that about GM now. It’s the odds of the many that matter. The odds of the many belongs to Toyota and Honda. But doesn’t rule out some can say that with GM. I’ve had good service with Ram, Ford and GM. Right now GM the odds are with the few.

customboss · November 30, 2025

Grumpy is a nerd. I’m a nerd. Nerds can offend those who are more pedestrian when it comes to automobiles.

You all make good points with Atlas making the most accurate.

Both Grumpy and I piss each other off at times. Those that align with either tend to PM the people they agree with.

Grumpys written expression tends to piss off people at times. Claiming fraud when it’s marketing is not black and white.

Grumpy wants his cars to last and survive. I get that and to a degree fully agree.

Karnut is right there’s a COST BENEFIT crossover and most unload not repair.

customboss · November 30, 2025

19 hours ago, Grumpy Bear said:

Actuaries Drive Oil & Maintenance Interval Requirements.

Not Engineers

https://www.soa.org/future-actuaries/precandidate/what/

https://www.casact.org/sites/default/files/old/forum_07spforum_07sp35.pdf

https://www.actomate.ai/post/how-actuaries-drive-success-in-the-automotive-industry

Warranty Evolution (150K in the title is highly misleading if you read the article)

https://www.capitalone.com/cars/learn/finding-the-right-car/the-evolution-of-the-car-warranty/2759

Engineers provide DATA the Actuary uses. Research provides DATA the actuary uses. Markets and Regulation drive the boundaries this is all hemmed in by. The weakest part of this chain is the Market and it is Marketing's job to shape those markets.

Finish the Sentence!

When a manufacture tells you "You don't need more than 2.6 HTHS......"

What he means is, "You don't need more than 2.6 HTHS to get past warranty and absolve us of liability".

******************************************

Public Notice

No one pays me to say anything.

I PAY FOR THE DATA.

I pay for the oil, the testing, Research papers, the test mules, outsourced services, even advice.

Anyone says other is a liar and a slanderer.

I do benefit by applying knowledge to wisdom

I enhance (organize) my knowledge by writing.

How awful of me!

OEMS use statistics but actuaries aren’t the skillset we used at Cummins. We had engineers and mathematicians and computer programs like Monte Carlo program to calculate a # then marketing extended it. We cared customers coming back more than leaving us.

Atlas · November 30, 2025

On the subject of OCI, I posted about the hot mess I'm putting back on the road, the 3.4L Camaro. It went 10 years between oil changes. Not many miles, but many years.

I let it warm up and idle with the old oil in it while diagnosing issues and checking basic functions, like making sure the cooling fans kicked on once it hit its ECU-mandated 225 degrees.

I took the idea of doing a "hot drain" a little too far. I was short on time, so after shutting it down, I let it cool off for 5 minutes and decided to let that old oil rip. I had a drain pan sitting on the paint shelf of a household ladder to catch the oil. The car was up on the lift. My lift drain happened to be full, so I was using my old standby, ladder and a drain pan.

The oil came out roasty-toasty. The paint shelf doesn't quite support the whole drain pan. I wasn't paying attention. The hot oil caused the plastic pan to soften. As the pan became heavier with more oil, you can guess what happened next.

Yep. The pan deformed and the edge slumped off the shelf and caused the pan (full of 4.5 quarts of oil) to topple and hit the ground, blasting nasty old oil everywhere. Thankfully I was wearing an old shirt and pants because it blasted me too.

I maintain the ability to laugh at my own misfortune, so laugh at my self - while cussing out my situation - I did.

But back to the subject. The idea was, get the oil piping hot, hopefully boil out the moisture, get all the crud suspended in the oil, and then drain it out and fill with fresh.

The car has been running that new oil for about 150 miles. Now that I think of it, I should have sent a sample of the old stuff in to see what 10 year old oil (in an engine that's been sitting outside) looks like after that long. Missed opportunity.

I'm wondering if I should change the oil again after just a few hundred miles. The idea behind that is new oil with a proper detergent package has been cleaning/dissolving any crud in that engine, and has also been running through the last of the car's old nasty gas followed by a bottle of injector cleaner with a few gallons of fresh fuel.

The color of the new oil is noticeably darker since pouring it in, although, I know color isn't a great indicator of wear or particulates. But it makes me think it's cleaning.

One thing I've noticed is the difference in the smell of the oil. Sequential port injection on an old iron block/head V6 keeps the oil smelling like oil. Not fuel. On all my modern gas cars the oil has a faint smell of fuel (they're all DI).

Without any science, I'll probably do this change on superstition. I'll dump the oil (properly, into the lift drain this time) and swap the filter. The new tires got put on yesterday so it's officially-official, back on the road. I'm excited to see how it drives NOT on hard, blocky old tires. I'd like to put a few hundred miles on it and really let it stretch. I've got a nice dry day ahead...

Edited November 30, 2025 by Atlas

customboss · November 30, 2025

21 minutes ago, Atlas said:

On the subject of OCI, I posted about the hot mess I'm putting back on the road, the 3.4L Camaro. It went 10 years between oil changes. Not many miles, but many years.

I let it warm up and idle with the old oil in it while diagnosing issues and checking basic functions, like making sure the cooling fans kicked on once it hit its ECU-mandated 225 degrees.

I took the idea of doing a "hot drain" a little too far. I was short on time, so after shutting it down, I let it cool off for 5 minutes and decided to let that old oil rip. I had a drain pan sitting on the paint shelf of a household ladder to catch the oil. The car was up on the lift. My lift drain happened to be full, so I was using my old standby, ladder and a drain pan.

The oil came out roasty-toasty. The paint shelf doesn't quite support the whole drain pan. I wasn't paying attention. The hot oil caused the plastic pan to soften. As the pan became heavier with more oil, you can guess what happened next.

Yep. The pan deformed and the edge slumped off the shelf and caused the pan (full of 4.5 quarts of oil) to topple and hit the ground, blasting nasty old oil everywhere. Thankfully I was wearing an old shirt and pants because it blasted me too.

I maintain the ability to laugh at my own misfortune, so laugh at my self - while cussing out my situation - I did.

But back to the subject. The idea was, get the oil piping hot, hopefully boil out the moisture, get all the crud suspended in the oil, and then drain it out and fill with fresh.

The car has been running that new oil for about 150 miles. Now that I think of it, I should have sent a sample of the old stuff in to see what 10 year old oil (in an engine that's been sitting outside) looks like after that long. Missed opportunity.

I'm wondering if I should change the oil again after just a few hundred miles. The idea behind that is new oil with a proper detergent package has been cleaning/dissolving any crud in that engine, and has also been running through the last of the car's old nasty gas followed by a bottle of injector cleaner with a few gallons of fresh fuel.

The color of the new oil is noticeably darker since pouring it in, although, I know color isn't a great indicator of wear or particulates. But it makes me think it's cleaning.

One thing I've noticed is the difference in the smell of the oil. Sequential port injection on an old iron block/head V6 keeps the oil smelling like oil. Not fuel. On all my modern gas cars the oil has a faint smell of fuel (they're all DI).

Without any science, I'll probably do this change on superstition. I'll dump the oil (properly, into the lift drain this time) and swap the filter. The new tires got put on yesterday so it's officially-official, back on the road. I'm excited to see how it drives NOT on hard, blocky old tires. I'd like to put a few hundred miles on it and really let it stretch. I've got a nice dry day ahead...

What a dumbass!!!

LIFT!!! I want one but the garage is too low.

We’ve all done that sort of thing.

Seriously you’d be surprised how long lubricants can protect and coat moving parts. Don’t change the new oil before say 2000 miles and 6 months. If I recall you use mobil1 ? That will clean up shellac effectively in that engine. At least in oil galleries and flow track.

Shellac and varnish are the real culprits. Engine oil is hydraulic fluid that’s fired.

Edited November 30, 2025 by customboss

Grumpy Bear · November 30, 2025

4 hours ago, customboss said:

OEMS use statistics but actuaries aren’t the skillset we used at Cummins. We had engineers and mathematicians and computer programs like Monte Carlo program to calculate a # then marketing extended it. We cared customers coming back more than leaving us.

That would be a nice work experience. Sadly uncommon. Like chess there are many variations, agreed.

Greed has but one goal. Winning and keeping all the marbles.

Deterministic vs Monte Carlo. There are uses for both models. I would have liked to explore the research generated, at least the inputs.

Edited November 30, 2025 by txab
Removed proprietary information

Grumpy Bear · November 30, 2025

@customboss raises an interesting idea centered around 'uncertainty'. In Deterministic Models there is a great deal of effort expended to assure that only one leaver of variability at at time is pulled so that direct cause and effect can be studied. The Monte Carlo Model, based on randomness, disconnects the two, input from output, to study the effect alone. It has usefulness such as if you haven't a idea what 'possible outcomes' could be. A more analogous model of end user conditions indeed. Users rarely do as the ought or are instructed to do. Random models it seems would have usefulness in making a thing idiot proof.

The flaw of that model is in knowing what caused what. It's strength seems to be in finding multiple random outcomes for singular but but unconstrained inputs.

It would seem that both used together in stages would be very effective.

Deterministic Models have a feature called the "Process Capability Index" that hints at Monte Carlo but provides only a ones and zeros output. Very interesting.

KARNUT · November 30, 2025

58 minutes ago, Atlas said:

On the subject of OCI, I posted about the hot mess I'm putting back on the road, the 3.4L Camaro. It went 10 years between oil changes. Not many miles, but many years.

I let it warm up and idle with the old oil in it while diagnosing issues and checking basic functions, like making sure the cooling fans kicked on once it hit its ECU-mandated 225 degrees.

I took the idea of doing a "hot drain" a little too far. I was short on time, so after shutting it down, I let it cool off for 5 minutes and decided to let that old oil rip. I had a drain pan sitting on the paint shelf of a household ladder to catch the oil. The car was up on the lift. My lift drain happened to be full, so I was using my old standby, ladder and a drain pan.

The oil came out roasty-toasty. The paint shelf doesn't quite support the whole drain pan. I wasn't paying attention. The hot oil caused the plastic pan to soften. As the pan became heavier with more oil, you can guess what happened next.

Yep. The pan deformed and the edge slumped off the shelf and caused the pan (full of 4.5 quarts of oil) to topple and hit the ground, blasting nasty old oil everywhere. Thankfully I was wearing an old shirt and pants because it blasted me too.

I maintain the ability to laugh at my own misfortune, so laugh at my self - while cussing out my situation - I did.

But back to the subject. The idea was, get the oil piping hot, hopefully boil out the moisture, get all the crud suspended in the oil, and then drain it out and fill with fresh.

The car has been running that new oil for about 150 miles. Now that I think of it, I should have sent a sample of the old stuff in to see what 10 year old oil (in an engine that's been sitting outside) looks like after that long. Missed opportunity.

I'm wondering if I should change the oil again after just a few hundred miles. The idea behind that is new oil with a proper detergent package has been cleaning/dissolving any crud in that engine, and has also been running through the last of the car's old nasty gas followed by a bottle of injector cleaner with a few gallons of fresh fuel.

The color of the new oil is noticeably darker since pouring it in, although, I know color isn't a great indicator of wear or particulates. But it makes me think it's cleaning.

One thing I've noticed is the difference in the smell of the oil. Sequential port injection on an old iron block/head V6 keeps the oil smelling like oil. Not fuel. On all my modern gas cars the oil has a faint smell of fuel (they're all DI).

Without any science, I'll probably do this change on superstition. I'll dump the oil (properly, into the lift drain this time) and swap the filter. The new tires got put on yesterday so it's officially-official, back on the road. I'm excited to see how it drives NOT on hard, blocky old tires. I'd like to put a few hundred miles on it and really let it stretch. I've got a nice dry day ahead...

When my mother in law quit diving about 6years ago now she had a 2015 CRV with 7K miles on it. Never had an oil change. I didn’t realize it and after replacing the tires I took it on a 2K miles round trip. Returning I took it to Honda for service. No record of any oil change. It had a battery, brake and coolant flush but no oil change. I put 40K miles on it as a trip vehicle traded my daughter for her Odyssey. They run the wheels off it. It’s passing 100K miles no worse for wear.

Atlas · November 30, 2025

I don't think it's any secret that for-profit companies might put cost above best outcomes in many if not most situations, specific examples not needed.

Simply driving a vehicle is putting cost above best outcome because every mile and hour on an engine equates to increased wear, but we need the vehicle to get ourselves around. Using an engine, for the most part, is detrimental to its longevity.

Speaking of Cummins, I've got an L9 in a motorhome. I've never put a true synthetic in it. I've run Delvac 1300 15w40 since it was new and change the oil at least once per year, or between 5-8k if we're doing a lot of traveling. It tows heavy all over the West Coast (mountain passes). It's a motorhome and 99% of them don't live to see 200k, the rest of the vehicle ages out/ falls apart, so I've never obsessed too much about what oil to use or how often to change. 5-8k is probably still overkill...I think the factory service interval on CK4 oil is 15k? It's long.

I'm borderline on the fuel filters. Book says change them every 18 months, which I've done. Getting ready to put another 2500 miles on it so, do I change before the trip or after the trip. We're about at time, but way less on the miles. Takes one of the 63041NN spin-ons and a Detroit cartridge filter. The stupid Detroit thing is like $60 by itself. I hate to over-service on that one, but at the same time, there's so much juju around high pressure diesel injection and basically needing to keep the system sterile that it gets under my skin.

I'm just rambling, keeping up with the general spirit of the the thread at this point

Edited November 30, 2025 by Atlas

KARNUT · November 30, 2025

26 minutes ago, Atlas said:

I don't think it's any secret that for-profit companies might put cost above best outcomes in many if not most situations, specific examples not needed.

Simply driving a vehicle is putting cost above best outcome because every mile and hour on an engine equates to increased wear, but we need the vehicle to get ourselves around. Using an engine, for the most part, is detrimental to its longevity.

Speaking of Cummins, I've got an L9 in a motorhome. I've never put a true synthetic in it. I've run Delvac 1300 15w40 since it was new and change the oil at least once per year, or between 5-8k if we're doing a lot of traveling. It tows heavy all over the West Coast (mountain passes). It's a motorhome and 99% of them don't live to see 200k, the rest of the vehicle ages out/ falls apart, so I've never obsessed too much about what oil to use or how often to change. 5-8k is probably still overkill...I think the factory service interval on CK4 oil is 15k? It's long.

I'm borderline on the fuel filters. Book says change them every 18 months, which I've done. Getting ready to put another 2500 miles on it so, do I change before the trip or after the trip. We're about at time, but way less on the miles. Takes one of the 63041NN spin-ons and a Detroit cartridge filter. The stupid Detroit thing is like $60 by itself. I hate to over-service on that one, but at the same time, there's so much juju around high pressure diesel injection and basically needing to keep the system sterile that it gets under my skin.

I'm just rambling, keeping up with the general spirit of the the thread at this point

We’ve had a couple of slide ins bornfree with dolly wheels. Went to fifth wheels. So we could use the trucks as back up equipment trailer service. Had a 4 horse camper combo in the horse showing days. My brother just bought a used bus Cummins pusher. Old low mileage. Money pit so far. Those experiences are why I prefer hotels. Casinos usually. The money I save pays for play. It’s a lot less stressful. Different strokes. It was fun while it lasted, but stressful.

Edited November 30, 2025 by KARNUT

Atlas · November 30, 2025

1 hour ago, KARNUT said:

We’ve had a couple of slide ins bornfree with dolly wheels. Went to fifth wheels. So we could use the trucks as back up equipment trailer service. Had a 4 horse camper combo in the horse showing days. My brother just bought a used bus Cummins pusher. Old low mileage. Money pit so far. Those experiences are why I prefer hotels. Casinos usually. The money I save pays for play. It’s a lot less stressful. Different strokes. It was fun while it lasted, but stressful.

Motorhomes or RV's in general aren't for everyone. They're a lot of work and a lot of expense to keep them in good shape over time. That doesn't sound relaxing or much like vacation to most people, I hear that. The only way to get value out of them is to use the hell out of them, and you'll still lose money and put in a crapload of work. But yes, they're fun in the moment. We're headed to chase the sun for a few weeks...nothing like sitting outside on New Year's day in shorts and a t-shirt, feeling good, and getting in plenty of hiking.

customboss · November 30, 2025

1 hour ago, Atlas said:

I don't think it's any secret that for-profit companies might put cost above best outcomes in many if not most situations, specific examples not needed.

Simply driving a vehicle is putting cost above best outcome because every mile and hour on an engine equates to increased wear, but we need the vehicle to get ourselves around. Using an engine, for the most part, is detrimental to its longevity.

Speaking of Cummins, I've got an L9 in a motorhome. I've never put a true synthetic in it. I've run Delvac 1300 15w40 since it was new and change the oil at least once per year, or between 5-8k if we're doing a lot of traveling. It tows heavy all over the West Coast (mountain passes). It's a motorhome and 99% of them don't live to see 200k, the rest of the vehicle ages out/ falls apart, so I've never obsessed too much about what oil to use or how often to change. 5-8k is probably still overkill...I think the factory service interval on CK4 oil is 15k? It's long.

I'm borderline on the fuel filters. Book says change them every 18 months, which I've done. Getting ready to put another 2500 miles on it so, do I change before the trip or after the trip. We're about at time, but way less on the miles. Takes one of the 63041NN spin-ons and a Detroit cartridge filter. The stupid Detroit thing is like $60 by itself. I hate to over-service on that one, but at the same time, there's so much juju around high pressure diesel injection and basically needing to keep the system sterile that it gets under my skin.

I'm just rambling, keeping up with the general spirit of the the thread at this point

Change the fuel filter early. Pays dividends. Nanonet fuel filter is saving your bacon.

KARNUT · November 30, 2025

2 hours ago, Atlas said:

Motorhomes or RV's in general aren't for everyone. They're a lot of work and a lot of expense to keep them in good shape over time. That doesn't sound relaxing or much like vacation to most people, I hear that. The only way to get value out of them is to use the hell out of them, and you'll still lose money and put in a crapload of work. But yes, they're fun in the moment. We're headed to chase the sun for a few weeks...nothing like sitting outside on New Year's day in shorts and a t-shirt, feeling good, and getting in plenty of hiking.

I agree. My parents and siblings showed horses out of our Farm in NJ. Later in Texas we used fifth wheels to stay in working out of town for awhile. We still had the born free slide ins. I asked the wife when we retired if she wanted to live the van life but with a motor home. For at least 30 years before retirement we used to go on cruises for Vacations. We usually end up in the casino. So we decided we rather casino hop but stay in the hotel instead of motor homes. Every one has a thing. I would have been happy either way. Being a cheep ass I would have bought a used one probably a motor home. There is a catch though. Some RV parks won’t let you park an old motor home or RV. You have to send them a picture first.