Coronavirus

Grumpy Bear · April 19, 2020

6 hours ago, Texas Daddy said:

With the facts in your face, you still cling to your flawed ideas. All studies extrapolate from samples. You dont have any sort of science degree, nor healthcare experience, do you? Herd immunity is aquired by exposure (like we get from the flu). The most effective way to achieve it is to let it run its course. This is no worse than a flu, yet we are limiting our exposure to spread fear. This is being done for the first time with no proof, and it limits the course...

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Takes 70% to 95% to acquire 'Herd Immunity'.

Most common method of acquiring it is vaccination.

It's kind of how they work.

Do I have experience in health care? Myself? Refinery EMT/FD. Everybody who works in a refinery WILL serve. I have a niece with a Doctorate in Pharmacology and a daughter who's a RN and a son-in-law married to that daughter with a Masters in Respiratory Disease. My mother was an nurse during Korea. I have enough reliable resources to know what heard immunity is or isn't.

I have enough experience not to shoot my mouth off about something I don't know anything about.

You're a funny fellow. You accept numbers that you THINK support your beliefs.

Condemn them when they don't

:crackup:

Edited April 19, 2020 by txab

KARNUT · April 19, 2020

All this numbers talk! One thing is constant. They are changing. They’re getting close to what I was saying at the beginning of this thread. It’s been said this bug shouldn’t be compared with a bad flu year. Why not? There’s at least some vaccines for the flu. There’s nothing yet for this. So it should be worse than a bad flu year. Seems people have forgotten what this pause was for. It’s purpose was to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed, period. Now we have an economy to save. There definitely will be more to deal with this bug. The hope is we can mitigate enough with mask and hygiene to keep the curve flat enough. This is a forever bug they all are.

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graystonelbz · April 19, 2020

20 minutes ago, KARNUT said:

All this numbers talk! One thing is constant. They are changing. They’re getting close to what I was saying at the beginning of this thread. It’s been said this bug shouldn’t be compared with a bad flu year. Why not? There’s at least some vaccines for the flu. There’s nothing yet for this. So it should be worse than a bad flu year. Seems people have forgotten what this pause was for. It’s purpose was to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed, period. Now we have an economy to save. There definitely will be more to deal with this bug. The hope is we can mitigate enough with mask and hygiene to keep the curve flat enough. This is a forever bug the all are.

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Did you know they never finished the vaccine for SARS, because it ended up just going away. SARS is a coronavirus as well and no on knows if it will die off altogether or if it will return. Either way all this vaccine talk is way overblown when they didn't even find it necessary to finish the SARS vaccine just in case. As you have said, this whole thing has been a complete lie. No hospitals anywhere overwhelmed, no one running out of anything that everybody was crying about 3 to 4 weeks ago. O cases in my town, 23 in my entire county and 1 death in going on 6 weeks of of this nonsense. A good part of the country is in similar standing, but that doesn't sound scary so it isn't reported. As a whole this is going to make the people have less confidence than they already do towards our institutions.

KARNUT · April 19, 2020

Did you know they never finished the vaccine for SARS, because it ended up just going away. SARS is a coronavirus as well and no on knows if it will die off altogether or if it will return. Either way all this vaccine talk is way overblown when they didn't even find it necessary to finish the SARS vaccine just in case. As you have said, this whole thing has been a complete lie. No hospitals anywhere overwhelmed, no one running out of anything that everybody was crying about 3 to 4 weeks ago. O cases in my town, 23 in my entire county and 1 death in going on 6 weeks of of this nonsense. A good part of the country is in similar standing, but that doesn't sound scary so it isn't reported. As a whole this is going to make the people have less confidence than they already do towards our institutions.

Especially when the economic impact is known. It’s far worse than is being reported.

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jgraves13 · April 19, 2020

With the facts in your face, you still cling to your flawed ideas. All studies extrapolate from samples. You dont have any sort of science degree, nor healthcare experience, do you? Herd immunity is aquired by exposure (like we get from the flu). The most effective way to achieve it is to let it run its course. This is no worse than a flu, yet we are limiting our exposure to spread fear. This is being done for the first time with no proof, and it limits the course...

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The numbers in that Santa Clara study are biased. If you think I’m wrong, take a look at the sampling method they used to get those numbers. You also cherry picked the highest number from the article (85x). That’s the highest of the range, lowest of the range was 50x. Big difference there. We won’t truly know how accurate that is until they do more widespread tests like that with better sampling methods. It’s likely that the actual death rate will be much lower, but that doesn’t mean we should open back up immediately and put more strain on our healthcare (more on that at the bottom). I didn’t even read the news articles about it because they’re going to skew the interpretation of the results from what they actually are. Go read the actual white paper on the study. And yes, I have a masters degree in statistics

It is worse than the flu. According to the CDC, 314 people have died from the flu in the US in the last week. Close to 10,000 from covid. All numbers from CDC, nothing from the news. And you think that’s not worse?

However, karnut is right. The whole point of lockdown is to slow the spread and stop the overloading of our healthcare system, not to stop the virus. You cant stop the virus until you get a vaccine. That much is 100% location dependent. New York is extremely different from Southern California where I’m at. That’s why our president and the governors are working together to come up with a plan that will allow states to open up, once they meet a certain criteria, NOT once they meet a certain time frame

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graystonelbz · April 19, 2020

Bottom line is this has been and continues to be an overreaction in the majority of the country. Nobody has any credibility with numbers at this point at all. The classification of death has been in question and remains to be. No ones models/guesses were right, there is no way to tell who has and hasn't carried the virus period. The whole country will never get tested, that would take far too long. Anybody with any common sense knows that. Everybody has thrown darts in the dark and none have landed on the board. Making decisions with peoples rights and livelihoods over guesses has been far too damaging and can't continue. Time to sack it up and continue with life. The alternative isn't good, the government isn't going to keep giving money to lazy people who don't want to go back to work. It's never been the goverments job to eliminate all the risks that everyday life presents.

Edited April 19, 2020 by graystonelbz

graystonelbz · April 19, 2020

Interesting the the statistic guy is deciding which studies are bias and which aren't. Hospitals are laying off people off left and right and don't have the ability to do regular business. Where does this argument of straining our health system keep coming from? That argument has no merit whatsoever. Just a repeat of fake news talking points. They brought in ships and built hospitals that aren't being used in hotspots.

T1Kaiju · April 19, 2020

2 hours ago, Grumpy Bear said:

Takes 70% to 95% to acquire 'Herd Immunity'.

Most common method of acquiring it is vaccination.

It's kind of how they work.

Do I have experience in health care? Myself? Refinery EMT/FD. Everybody who works in a refinery WILL serve. I have a niece with a Doctorate in Pharmacology and a daughter who's a RN and a son-in-law married to that daughter with a Masters in Respiratory Disease. My mother was an nurse during Korea. I have enough reliable resources to know what heard immunity is or isn't.

I have enough experience not to shoot my mouth off about something I don't know anything about.

You're a funny fellow. You accept numbers that you THINK support your beliefs.

Condemn them when they don't

Been censored, and now Im really done with this forum for good...

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Edited April 19, 2020 by txab

txab · April 19, 2020

Ok, just a reminder...... let's cool this off a bit. Things are starting to flare. For the thread to stay open, everyone needs to play nice and not get frustrated/angry. Agree to disagree and move on

The Zip · April 19, 2020

16 hours ago, davester said:

It's not clear to me, are you complaining that the test you got ahold of listed a bunch of it's limitations?

Why would you complain about that?

Wasn't intended as a complaint and I can't speak on another internet test. BioFire admit they are only an emergency use only test recommended by a federal gov agency agency and sent to a federal gov agency. If this is the type of test a federal agency receives, what level of confidence or quality will there be with tests used by state, city, or rural areas? Don't know the right answer and BioFire may be a one-off, but increased testing is the next phase.

davester · April 19, 2020

1 minute ago, The Zip said:

Wasn't intended as a complaint and I can't speak on another internet test. BioFire admit they are only an emergency use only test recommended by a federal gov agency agency and sent to a federal gov agency. If this is the type of test a federal agency receives, what level of confidence or quality will there be with tests used by state, city, or rural areas? Don't know the right answer and BioFire may be a one-off, but increased testing is the next phase.

That's just the nature of testing for a new disease. It takes time to develop have a fast, accurate test (and to know what it's level of accuracy is).

There are a bunch of tests, for both the virus itself and for the antibodies to the virus, that take varying amounts of time to produce a result (from about an hour or so to a week), and with varying quality for both false positives and false negatives (typically, the tests taking longer to produce a result are more accurate).

For widespread testing, to catch new "hotspots" when they occur, having tests that take a week to produce a result are relatively worthless, as the area is screwed by the time you find out.

So, we need a fairly fast (perhaps a couple of hours), accurate (few false positive/negatives) test that can be ramped up to that 1/2 million tests per day (or whatever they feel they need to be able to do).

I have no idea if we have such a test available or if it appears one will be available soon, as it takes both time to develop the test, and then time to figure out the accuracy of the test on a large enough sample size.

jgraves13 · April 19, 2020

Interesting the the statistic guy is deciding which studies are bias and which aren't. Hospitals are laying off people off left and right and don't have the ability to do regular business. Where does this argument of straining our health system keep coming from? That argument has no merit whatsoever. Just a repeat of fake news talking points. They brought in ships and built hospitals that aren't being used in hotspots.

I never claimed other studies weren’t also biased, I was just commenting on the one that others were taking as gospel that this virus is nothing, and pointing out the flaw. The study as a whole is a good start, but the sampling method definitely has statistical bias.

And like I said, strained healthcare systems are location dependent. Wife is a nurse, affected by layoffs/furloughs at a hospital, I know the strain is not happening everywhere. That’s why states are taking at look at opening back up, which is probably a good thing.

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jgraves13 · April 19, 2020

For everyone stating that “it’s just the flu”, here you go. We’ve surpassed the (estimated) death count of the entire 2018-2019 flu season, in a little over a month, according to the CDC. Opinions about how to handle this aside, it’s no longer “just the flu”.

https://www.memorandumdaily.com/2020/04/coronavirus-has-now-killed-more-people.html?m=1

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KARNUT · April 19, 2020

For everyone stating that “it’s just the flu”, here you go. We’ve surpassed the (estimated) death count of the entire 2018-2019 flu season, in a little over a month, according to the CDC. Opinions about how to handle this aside, it’s no longer “just the flu”.

https://www.memorandumdaily.com/2020/04/coronavirus-has-now-killed-more-people.html?m=1

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I think it was a bad flu year was what was said. They can be as high as 800K hospitalizations and 60K deaths. Usually depending on the right guess for vaccines. Like happened two years ago. For being a new bug with no vaccines, it hitting relatively low numbers so far. I wish people would just call it like it is. Instead of cherry picking numbers to suit their narrative. Remember we’re crashing our economy that could have far bigger ramifications going forward. Everything is the best guess. Only one to blame China. The rest are trying to keep up. And make the best guess.

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mookdoc6 · April 19, 2020

On 4/18/2020 at 8:58 AM, Texas Daddy said:

@Grumpy Bear

No comment?

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I already spouted out after it's all said and done..... it will be .5-.9% MR. More than the influenza strains currently circulating absolutely! Probably end up .02% of total USA population dying from exposure to COVID-19

Hopefully, everybody learned something from this....Clean your CRAP! You want to run a business? CLEAN YOUR CRAP ANY HIRE AND PAY MORE PEOPLE TO CLEAN YOUR CRAP! The government will get the savings in the years later as overall influenza cases, andeno's, Corona's etc. all being significantly less than historic trends. Proactive, mindful, diligent steps taken by ALL PEOPLE is required. SHUTTING DOWN THE WHOLE OF THE USA ECONOMY OVER THIS WAS NONSENSE!

THE WHO? All I know about that is Tommy and that was GOOD! CDC=JOKE Fauci=JOKE Where is your mask? Can't wait until the Vaccine comes out and they recommend everybody to take it. Then the other Vaccine that comes out 2yrs from now the one that actually works and has less side effects IS THE ONE YOU SHOULD TAKE! I know much about Medicine is all I can divulge.