Coronavirus

[KARNUT]

At the end of the recession, in June 2009, it was 9.5 percent. In the months after the recession, the unemployment rate peaked at 10.0 percent (in October 2009). ... The long-term unemployment rate is the number of persons unemployed for 27 weeks or longer as a percent of the labor force.

 

www.bls.gov

 

Todays announcement was 4.4% and 22 million asking for unemployment. 

 

 

Here's the difference this time. Last time it was a housing boom bust in the credit markets that took YEARS to unwind. This has happened in just four months. 

 

OVERWHELMING the system.

 

Do you see the parallel? 

This could take awhile. After all this it depends on how soon people will feel comfortable in crowds. That’s lots of business. I remember the last one too. It effected 3/4s of my customers. That was a slow recovery.

 

 

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[graystonelbz]

https://abcnews.go.com/US/florida-man-released-jail-coronavirus-arrested-murder-charges/story?id=70161179

At lest we have our priorities straight. Shocking that this was a terrible idea. I'm sure those inmates will definitely adhere to shelter in place orders.

Edited April 16, 2020 by graystonelbz

[Texas Daddy]

At the end of the recession, in June 2009, it was 9.5 percent. In the months after the recession, the unemployment rate peaked at 10.0 percent (in October 2009). ... The long-term unemployment rate is the number of persons unemployed for 27 weeks or longer as a percent of the labor force.
 
www.bls.gov
 
Todays announcement was 4.4% and 22 million asking for unemployment. 
 
 
Here's the difference this time. Last time it was a housing boom bust in the credit markets that took YEARS to unwind. This has happened in just four months. 

 

OVERWHELMING the system.

 

Do you see the parallel? 

Then they should have kept businesses open to flatten the jobless curve. Probably more dangerous in long run...

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[Texas Daddy]

I did some looking at "Herd Immunity". Seems a hot topic. I knew little about it and now know only a little more. 
 
Looking at polio cholera & typhoid as exemplars. Herd Immunity is PRIMARALY the result of vaccination. Interesting. However it can happen organically. But the thing about it is why it works and what percentage of the population needs it to be effective. Ah...
 
Oddly the point of it is exactly the same as social distancing. Provide no place for the virus to go, interrupt it's natural pathway. Check!
 
The problem is that for it to be effective 70% to 95% of a vulnerable population needs to be vaccinated OR infected (antibodies).
 
So lets see. We have 331,000,000 (rounded down) in America. So for Herd Immunity to be effective we need what:
 

70% = 231,700,000 infections minimum

95% = 314,450,000 infections maximum 

 

To date we have roughly 667,000 infections (rounded) and 34,000 dead. That's about 5%. What is 5% of the minimum Herd Immunity population? 
 

11,600,000 Dead

 

Cut the threshold to 60% and use an MR of 2.5%. Half of what is already a matter of record. Still 5 million dead. 

 
Now lets say my math stinks and the 'experts' at the CDC and every state health board is in collusion to win an election. There is something we don't know. How long the antibodies last or if the bodies antibodies are even effective against this virus.
 
Just spit balling here but "Bad Hat Harry" .

 

 

You think covid will kill 5‐11 million? [emoji1787][emoji1787][emoji1787]

That a solid: OK BOOMER!!!

Maybe if your math showed that 100M+ have already been infected with most ASYMPTOMATIC, you can get on with your life (even MSNBC wont put out your baseless numbers).

According to you, only people given speeding tickets speed. If 5% of those skip their trial date, then 15 MILLION AMERICANS SKIP THEIR COURT DATES!

You have Stockholm Syndrome, plain and simple. Get a bike or something. Im done here. This is idiotic...maybe I should mess with my paragraph justification more...

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[Grumpy Bear]

45 minutes ago, Texas Daddy said:

 Im done here. 

Well that took waaaaaaaaaaay to long. 

Hot tip.

Don't engage someone if you don't want to hear what they have to say.

 

 

 

[Grumpy Bear]

Wife is a glass is completely full girl and sees sunshine everywhere. Here's a few: 

 

1.) Animals are loving this. I expect the same feeling Native Americans would have had if Europeans would have went home. 

2.) Crime is way down in most places. (Chicago is always out of step.) 

3.) Gas pricing (Mr. Peabody and the Way Back Machine) 

4.) Smog. Boy is the earth happy right now. Is that REAL fresh air?  

5.) 5 O' Clock traffic is light.

6.) No one has crossed the center line watching their phone in awhile.

7.) I'm actually a pretty good cook. Who knew, right?

8.) Working from home is way more productive and allot less stressful. Less gas, fewer maintenance trips, yada-yada. 

9.) Cost allot less to eat in and way better food.

10.) Sales people haven't been to the door in a few months.

11.) Garbage mail is way down.

12.) Yard has never looked better.

13.) Is this what a clean house looks like? Wow...nice.

14.) Can you wash the paint off a truck? Shiny. 

15.) I get to work in my jam-jams.

16.) Neighbors are minding their own business. Cool.

17.) That book is better than the movie.  

 

 

[SSchup]

1 hour ago, Texas Daddy said:

You think covid will kill 5‐11 million?

That a solid: OK BOOMER!!!

Maybe if your math showed that 100M+ have already been infected with most ASYMPTOMATIC, you can get on with your life (even MSNBC wont put out your baseless numbers).

According to you, only people given speeding tickets speed. If 5% of those skip their trial date, then 15 MILLION AMERICANS SKIP THEIR COURT DATES!

You have Stockholm Syndrome, plain and simple. Get a bike or something. Im done here. This is idiotic...maybe I should mess with my paragraph justification more...

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Don't leave now, you were providing most of the sane posts.

[Grumpy Bear]

24 minutes ago, SSchup said:

Don't leave now, you were providing most of the sane posts.

What he's doing in putting mud in the water. 50 states use stats to guide them. My numbers are in lock step with theirs. Imagine that. We use the same data bases. We work with what we CAN know. He's working with what he believes. If he could put a number to his ranting he might be credible. As is, he's noise. 

 

Everyone knows there uncounted cases and deaths. That part he is not wrong about. Stat people know it doesn't matter. There are 7.8 billion people on this planet. 100,000 cases is a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a percent. These fellas attempt to persuade people that this noise will make a HUGE impact on the results when the truth is at the current ratios it is drown out. He says there are cases and yet can not put a working value to his claim. Well they can and have. They have no need nor wish to publish those numbers because? It didn't make a significant impact on the result. 

 

Let me show you how easy this is. Test 100,000 random people. In that population every possible case to make will be made. I track those people to whatever their end result might be. (Mind you that sample INCLUDES people walking around infected like nothing is wrong who might otherwise have been untested.) From that data, which takes less than a month to clear and a few days to process they now know to a 99.7% certainty  how much of general population is infected. How many are asymtomatic. How many are what race, age, have what secondary condtions. How many will die and how many will live. How many will need vents. What mitigations are in place. 

 

Currently the USA has performed 3.4 MILLON test and have under 700,000 cases. Those numbers are known. 

 

It isn't rocket science. It's statistics.  

 

Some of the states are now publishing testing results. Two and three times the infected population. Has it resulted in some major shift in the results? No! An up tick but nothing that moves the numbers that matter. 

 

He can claim anything but he can't put a number to it......can he....has he. Just noise. 

 

 

[KARNUT]

Seems Sweden has it figured out. No total lockdown. Death about like ours. While next door total lock down. Not much different results, except to their economy. As reported on Tucker Carlson.


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[graystonelbz]

1 hour ago, KARNUT said:

Seems Sweden has it figured out. No total lockdown. Death about like ours. While next door total lock down. Not much different results, except to their economy. As reported on Tucker Carlson.


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Don't make any more comparisons. You're just putting a quarter in the graph guy to make some graphs and tell you how smart you aren't and he is. Clearly mentioning a show on FOX is a trigger word for many among the Gmtruck.com communist regime.

[KARNUT]

Don't make any more comparisons. You're just putting a quarter in the graph guy to make some graphs and tell you how smart you aren't and he is. Clearly mentioning a show on FOX is a trigger word for many among the Gmtruck.com communist regime.

We all are just trying to help and cover all bases. I can’t read the graphs they make me bug eyed. I can read numbers. Some areas seemed to be fudging a little in certain areas. I’m glad we’re going to start up gradually. I believe we need to. By the way anyone who wants to see the rebroadcast, it will be 11 central on Fox News.[emoji106]


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[Grumpy Bear]

1 hour ago, KARNUT said:

We all are just trying to help and cover all bases. I can’t read the graphs they make me bug eyed. I can read numbers. Some areas seemed to be fudging a little in certain areas. I’m glad we’re going to start up gradually. I believe we need to. By the way anyone who wants to see the rebroadcast, it will be 11 central on Fox News.


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A voice of reason. 

[KARNUT]

During my walk this morning I was listening to Rush Limbaugh. I only mentioned his name for this reason. He’s probably the most fact check person on the planet. Behind the president of course. We are at 20 percent unemployment, keeping in mind there’s probably a 2 week lag. The Great Depression had 24 percent. What he says is usually on the mark. This time in history may be remembered as the most recent depression, caused by hysteria. During the same segment. He’s wondering why the latest bad flu year 2018. That had over 800K hospitalizations, isn’t mentioned in comparison. Maybe fear is the motivation? After the segment on Tucker Carlson last night I wonder. Sweden and Norway as examples. One lock down, one didn’t. The biggest difference. Economic. One sized doesn’t fit all.


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[KARNUT]

The thing that really chaps me. This could be coming from a self employment background. I hate being told what to do. My actions have always had a cause and affect. I understand laws and guidelines. Make no mistake I’m staying home because I think it’s the right thing to do. I would have rather Congress had temporary laws and guidelines to keep us open. Then sending us to our rooms for our own good. Certain governors have limited what you can buy in an open store. Can’t buy garden supplies, really? The worst is yet to come. I’d don’t mean health related. Economic. Crowds, forget about it. Something going have to change for comfort reasons. Rapid testing, medication, something. This has just started.


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[Grumpy Bear]

6 minutes ago, KARNUT said:

The thing that really chaps me. This could be coming from a self employment background. I hate being told what to do. My actions have always had a cause and affect. I understand laws and guidelines. Make no mistake I’m staying home because I think it’s the right thing to do. I would have rather Congress had temporary laws and guidelines to keep us open. Then sending us to our rooms for our own good. Certain governors have limited what you can buy in an open store. Can’t buy garden supplies, really? The worst is yet to come. I’d don’t mean health related. Economic. Crowds, forget about it. Something going have to change for comfort reasons. Rapid testing, medication, something. This has just started.


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I really do love to watch you think. Especially when you cluster post. I get to watch this process unfold. Why might you say do I take such joy in this? Because a thinking human being seems to be a rare thing!! Thanks KARNUT!