Coronavirus

diyer2 · April 15, 2020

This is not an attack on anyone.

Why spend the time and energy put forth on this forum?

The media, doctors and the gov are not experts by any means.

Simple to me.

Stay home.

When you do go out be overly cautious. Be smart.

Time gone by is the key IMO.

Same with the market loses.

Time.

Simple.

If I watch the news(1-2 times a week) I watch the first 15 mins of the world news. The most important info IMO in this time span. I watch Nora O'Donnell because she is pleasing to the eyes.

We have been doing what they preach during flu season for years. Nothing new.

This panic will cost our children for years to come the way they are throwing money at it.

Is there a right answer?

Maybe not.

To many opinions and experts.

I just realized I've spent to much time on this post.

Edited April 15, 2020 by diyer2

T1Kaiju · April 15, 2020

WIKIPEDIA

It was the second round of the Spanish Flu that did the most damage.

Flatten the curve is the most specious argument ever - prove it vs. a control group (its called science). I could say 20 million dead, and when its only 20k, I could say netflix saved us. The numbers were made up. I went to kroger and lowes many times - both always packed; a REAL deadly virus would spread just as quickly from there. Stay scared, bend over, and let them do whatever they want to you. They will use this curve to control you for the rest of your life...

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Grumpy Bear · April 15, 2020

15 hours ago, Texas Daddy said:

Flatten the curve is the most specious argument ever - prove it vs. a control group (its called science). I could say 20 million dead, and when its only 20k, I could say netflix saved us. The numbers were made up. I went to kroger and lowes many times - both always packed; a REAL deadly virus would spread just as quickly from there. Stay scared, bend over, and let them do whatever they want to you. They will use this curve to control you for the rest of your life...

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You make a good argument and that isn't something a numbers guy like myself says often when a good understanding of the discipline of statistics is proof in itself. That is to say, there is no need for scientific methods and control groups to prove that 2 plus 2 equals 4. It's a fundamental truth. The discipline of statistics is just as sound and also a fundamental truth. However the example under study is where the doubt springs. And it does give me pause.

Stats has no trouble working with incomplete data sets. It will also allow of a certain amount of corruption of the data. Heavy on the certain amount part. It has limits. The old, "garbage in, garbage out" argument.

Distancing works mathematically. That part is child like simple. The first animation I posted last night makes that clear enough.

Does it work practically? That's the bigger question. Right?

Well, that would depend on what the statistical process hasn't a variable for? I can think of a few. The first one and of greatest importance would be 1.) an accurate R-nought. The second and actually equally important is 2.) the method of transmission. The first hinges on the second.

The R-nought is the mean of a distribution, not a single number. It says 'ON AVERAGE' not exactly. The distribution and it's mean depend on some factors such a population density and population mobility. A single person at the north pole can't give this to anyone else no matter how hard he sneezes. One person in a crowded elevator could infect 20 persons in a single event. If he does that 10 times a day.... So some where between zero and infinity. While the R-nought has been established, it has been done so on the average of a large number of data points that covers this entire range just exampled. It should be obvious that while true it may not be situationally true in every location. NYC will be different than rural Nebraska. This one doesn't bother me much because of sample size. It's more of an awareness point.

Method of transmission however....this thing is so new the primary may be easy enough to nail down but as said by KARNUT there are some serious inputs yet unknown. Contact infection bases on secondary transfer? Sneeze, surface, hand, face..... How long does it stay alive? How long does a recovering person shed? Is there an antibody response that is of long enough duration to inhibit reinfection? Just to many things left to know and that isn't going to happen over night.

When I look at as a whole I ask myself this. In which direction will corruption or incompleteness in data move the results? Unabated?

IN every case I can think of the answer is worst.

Why? Because the current existing inputs are all at the minimum and best case possible. Unless I ignore what is plainly in front of me. The old head in the sand does not keep the jackal from eating the ostrich. An overly diligent snowshoe hair escapes the lynx's jaws.

If the shedding time were longer, if the contact life is longer, if the R-nought is higher. If the distance between individuals is shorter. IN every case imaginable and reasonable it's worse.

If you still insist on a control then study the Spanish Flu. Not the mortality but the method. There was no mitigation. There was no means of rapid world education. Little information sharing. There was no cutting edge technology as we know it today. It is as raw a data set as one can hope to find. It has a R-nought of 1.8 and an MR of 2.5 with a world population of 1.8 billion. The world was a much less densely populated place then. NCY population then was 5/8 current.

Edited April 16, 2020 by Grumpy Bear

KARNUT · April 15, 2020

Some more numbers just from one source, Rush Limbaugh. I’m Leary of numbers even the death caused by numbers. So for what it’s worth. 810K last year, 492K this year flu hospitalization. 62K hospitalizations so far, new virus. GRUMPY?! Is this true? What do you think?

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Grumpy Bear · April 15, 2020

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported

If you can read this post you will understand the conclusions in this study above.

Based on that finding and the estimated time from patient zero on earth and given the measures world wide my math suggest an R-o of 1.596 on the incubation time of 5.1 days. That is @ 160 days to infect 2 million people world wide at a 5.1 day interval.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

This link above and the tables therein show this number to be close enough for horseshoes. (read its foot notes for reference works)

R-o 2 a generally accepted 'unabated' number. A 2.085 R-o would have proliferated the entire earths population in that same time.

2 million is a long way for nearly 8 billion.

What's the point? REALLY SMALL changes to either the R-o or the incubation period have a HUGE influence on the end result. At this point in it's course a difference in R-o of as small as 0.01 will change the finial result another 160 days from now by hundreds of millions.

Now you know why they are not specific but rather 'fence' the numbers you see reported. I wouldn't be to concerned about a misreporting of 3,000 deaths as much as a misreporting of the incubation time by 0.5 days or R-o of 0.01.

Just information.

KARNUT · April 15, 2020

I re-listen to the end with my ear buds in. Sure enough the flu numbers were CDC, the 62K covo hospitalizations projected. Some one really blew it.

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Grumpy Bear · April 15, 2020

1 minute ago, KARNUT said:

Some more numbers just from one source, Rush Limbaugh. I’m Leary of numbers even the death caused by numbers. So for what it’s worth. 810K last year, 492K this year flu hospitalization. 62K hospitalizations so far, new virus. GRUMPY?! Is this true? What do you think?

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See that green line? Deaths to influenza. (read right scale as a percentage of total deaths) That red line? COVID-19. I don't see any reasonable comparison. (Source CDC) Skip hospital cases and look at the deaths alone. Over 7 times as many deaths to date from Covid-19 that the seasonal flu. Numbers don't lie but liars use numbers.

Note that the right scale is % of the total and the left scale the total deaths shown by the shaded blue area.

If I have a disease that kills 5 in 100 and infects 100 I have 5 dead. IF I have a disease that kills 100 out of 100 but only infects 10 the I have 10 dead. Twice the number of deaths on 1/10th in infection rate. Which is more deadly?

Note this chart only goes through April 4th. It''s getting worse.

The difference in mortality rates is HUGE. (again CDC supplied) Seasonal flu 0.1%

Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to COVID-19 increased from 4.0% during week 13 to 6.9% during week 14. The percentage of deaths due to pneumonia (excluding COVID-19 or influenza) decreased from 7.5% during week 13 to 7.2% during week 14.

What I think is numbers make good copy but poor indicators. He's giving he numbers that reflect his bias or ignorance as the case may be. You have to ask yourself how informed you think he is. If he's very informed he's misleading INTENTIONALY. I looked this up in minutes. Public Record. IF he's ill informed he's just plane dangerous. IMHO.

Well that's what I think. You did ask.

KARNUT · April 15, 2020

See that green line? Deaths to influenza. (read right scale as a percentage of total deaths) That red line? COVID-19. I don't see any reasonable comparison. (Source CDC) Skip hospital cases and look at the deaths alone. Over 7 times as many deaths to date from Covid-19 that the seasonal flu. Numbers don't lie but liars use numbers.

Note that the right scale is % of the total and the left scale the total deaths shown by the shaded blue area.

If I have a disease that kills 5 in 100 and infects 100 I have 5 dead. IF I have a disease that kills 100 out of 100 but only infects 10 the I have 10 dead. Twice the number of deaths on 1/10th in infection rate. Which is more deadly?

Note this chart only goes through April 4th. It''s getting worse.

The difference in mortality rates is HUGE. (again CDC supplied) Seasonal flu 0.1%

Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to COVID-19 increased from 4.0% during week 13 to 6.9% during week 14. The percentage of deaths due to pneumonia (excluding COVID-19 or influenza) decreased from 7.5% during week 13 to 7.2% during week 14.

What I think is numbers make good copy but poor indicators. He's giving he numbers that reflect his bias or ignorance as the case may be. You have to ask yourself how informed you think he is. If he's very informed he's misleading INTENTIONALY. I looked this up in minutes. Public Record. IF he's ill informed he's just plane dangerous. IMHO.

Well that's what I think. You did ask. [emoji4]

I think the jury still out on who’s had the new bug. Some doctors are stating that. We’ll see. Graphs give me headaches. I’ll stick with numbers. Now there’s talk the death numbers are wrong. I don’t want it. I’m going to work real hard not to get. I’m just glad I don’t work in an industry that’s shut down.

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graystonelbz · April 15, 2020

The root of the problem is much more important at this point. What China and the WHO have done here needs to be urgently addressed. The US is certainly not the only country sharing these concerns. I don't believe for a minute that this came from eating bats. Maybe an accident in a laboratory? China was dealing with the Hong Kong protests, and an economic downturn that was exacerbated by the new trade deal with a US. I'm not certain if the virus was released to calm the Hong Kong situation and got beyond their control or if they intended it to go global to destroy the global economy to essentially level the field. The Chinese economy is completely phony and has been on the verge of collapse for some time. The CCP is just as terrible as any previous dictatorship has been, they don't share any basic values of decent people. Either way the CCP is totally corrupt and they have the WHO in their back pocket. Maybe not the entire WHO, but the ones at the top. These are truly evil people. Let me be clear, I have nothing against Chinese people, but the CCP is another story. The WHO should be at least temporarily be de-funded, and Bill Gates should keep his mouth shut.This should be an issue that Americans could unite around instead of the political battle and keeping score on deaths. Neither the left nor the right created this virus, but the target should not be the President....I mean we know where it started and it's in 184 countries. I don't hear Canadians blaming the Prime Minister of Canada. Whatever the cause was these sorts of things keep coming from China, it's time to make some permanent changes or this will keep happening. Sometimes in life you have to compromise with those that you despise to achieve a common goal. Most of my aggravation is with the media in this country as they are perpetuating fear and a divide that is only making everything worse for all of us.

Edited April 15, 2020 by graystonelbz

Grumpy Bear · April 15, 2020

1 hour ago, KARNUT said:

I think the jury still out on who’s had the new bug. Some doctors are stating that. We’ll see. Graphs give me headaches. I’ll stick with numbers. Now there’s talk the death numbers are wrong. I don’t want it. I’m going to work real hard not to get. I’m just glad I don’t work in an industry that’s shut down.

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Well the chart shows all influenza responsible for a bit less that 1% of all deaths while COVID-19 is responsible of over 7% of all deaths. Bottom line there is not reasonable comparison.

They can doubt all day. The Morgue tells a clearer story. When is the last time they did mass grave trench burials in the USA?

KARNUT · April 15, 2020

Well the chart shows all influenza responsible for a bit less that 1% of all deaths while COVID-19 is responsible of over 7% of all deaths. Bottom line there is not reasonable comparison.

They can doubt all day. The Morgue tells a clearer story. When is the last time they did mass grave trench burials in the USA?

We’ve gone over all this before and pretty much know where we’re at on this. Nothing is going to change with me unless it passes a bad flu year. Flu season generally last 4ish months. Nobody ask what’s done with those passing. This is being more sensationalized. With more life changing results. Graphs, charts, not withstanding, the numbers are not adding up to the hysteria, yet. Peace brother.[emoji3577]

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graystonelbz · April 15, 2020

Don't believe the hype....read for yourselves about these mass graves. Hart Island has a long history. Why promote fear and make reckless statements like that?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-15/coron https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/04/unclaimed-coronavirus-victims-being-buried-on-hart-island-long-history-as-potters-field/avirus-new-york-hart-island-mass-graves/12146208

Edited April 16, 2020 by graystonelbz

KARNUT · April 15, 2020

Probably the difference is the yearly flu deaths are more widespread. Something has to explain what happens in a bad flu year, with high deaths.

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j-ten-ner · April 16, 2020

7 hours ago, Grumpy Bear said:

...that 2 plus 2 equals 4...

So my dad was right. He used to say "... having a dollar minus not having a dollar makes two dollars ...".

I am still convinced that it is better to shut everything down. At least four weeks.
It would be much easier to identify and medically treat the infected people.
Right now we're just dragging it out forever.

so long

j-ten-ner

graystonelbz · April 16, 2020

Nobody is shutting anything down further, bad things are coming if restrictions go past the 1st. You may disagree, but wait and see. Protests are just the beginning.

Edited April 16, 2020 by graystonelbz