Coronavirus

Grumpy Bear · April 16, 2020

3 hours ago, KARNUT said:

Nothing is going to change with me unless it passes a bad flu year.

Here's the hope Stan. If the mitigation works as planned and it certainly looks as if it might, then the total for the year will indeed be less than a bad flu year. Let's be honest here. The WORST Flu year. But how does one compare a year of flu that goes unchecked with the results of a world wide effort to radially alter the outcome of 2-SARS? If that isn't apples to oranges I don't know what is.

They are cherry picking the flu years to the highest recorded in a decade. Toss the high and low of the actual numbers and average the remainder and the annual flu death toll is 38,000. Not 61,000.

As of a minute ago the current total Covid-19 death toll is 30,826.

Those same years; 28 MILLION people, on average, are infected compared to 637 THOUSAND.

Currently there were, on average 44 X, as many flu cases and to date nearly the same death toll.

COVID-19 already has nearly the same death toll on 2% of the same confirmed cases.

Imagine what the death toll would be IF 28 million Americans had Covid-19.

Same infection rate as the common flu!

The math is simple Simon met a Pie man.

1.3 MILLION

Apples to apples.

Not apples to cherries.

I find this unthinkable and PRAY mitigation works as well as it has so far

AND

They don't take their foot off it's neck to soon

********************************************************************

This stuff is a matter of public records. The media is aware of this.

The hope the public at large is not.

And they are not.

Edited April 16, 2020 by Grumpy Bear
Additional content

j-ten-ner · April 16, 2020

14 minutes ago, graystonelbz said:

Nobody is shutting anything down further, bad things are coming if restrictions go past the 1st. You may disagree, but wait and see. Protests are just the beginning.

Sometimes you have to force people to their happiness.

so long

j-ten-ner

Grumpy Bear · April 16, 2020

24 minutes ago, j-ten-ner said:

Sometimes you have to force people to their happiness.

Funny story. In an interview for a job I was asked what I would do if a supervisor told me to do something I knew for a fact was going to damage property, hurt people and interrupt production (Refinery setting)

My answer?

Express my concern with the best argument I was capable of.

"And if your warning is ignored"? he continued.

Then I run to the parking lot and let that fool run into the wall.

I didn't get the job.

:crackup:

If your the shepherd you can force their happiness

If your the sheep

RUNNNNNNNN

You can't force belief, only compliance.

Sometimes

:sigh:

Edited April 16, 2020 by Grumpy Bear

graystonelbz · April 16, 2020

Force to happiness....must've been what Cosby and Wienstein were thinkin too. Didn't pan out all that well.

Thejet07 · April 16, 2020

Grumpy/Ithan. Quick question about those statistics with the whole flu vs covid. Do you know if for example a patient who has cancer dies and had the flu at the time was labeled as a flu death or cancer death then vs the way how everything is labeled now? I read through all your earlier statistics but do you believe the labeling was actually done equal to now?

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j-ten-ner · April 16, 2020

40 minutes ago, Grumpy Bear said:

Funny story. In an interview for a job I was asked what I would do if a supervisor told me to do something I knew for a fact was going to damage property, hurt people and interrupt production (Refinery setting)

My answer?

Express my concern with the best argument I was capable of.

"And if your warning is ignored"? he continued.

Then I run to the parking lot and let that fool run into the wall.

I didn't get the job.

If your the shepherd you can force their happiness

If your the sheep

RUNNNNNNNN

You can't force belief, only compliance.

Sometimes

13 minutes ago, graystonelbz said:

Force to happiness....must've been what Cosby and Wienstein were thinkin too. Didn't pan out all that well.

I don't mean to go to extreme measures...

... but....whatever seems necessary to get the point across is fine with me...;)

The sticks are shorter than 6'. Room for improvement.....

Half of our stuff is now under "self quarantine".

The rest of the gang, including me, is trying to hold up the flag.

Number one reason is, that the city crews are still working. Non essential work in my book.

Sewer connection here, water connection there. Most of it on new builds.

Not to speak of all other customers who are also trying to keep their customers happy and to do so they require our services.

Downside is that I'm short on staff. For one or the other reason. Scared to ****** or taking advantage of the situation.

I know it's a sketchy move, but I told them that WE are making sure that they still have a job to come back to "when this is over".

Itold our customers that I'm not able to take on time sensitive jobs. Like " tomorrow 7am". First comes, first served.

We're loosing business and customers. If EVERYONE was shut down, everything would be equal after that.

I just can't stay home. Because there would be no customer left to work for when this is over.

so long

j-ten-ner

Grumpy Bear · April 16, 2020

I hear an interesting story unfolding in Brazil on the BBC tonight.

President wants to do nothing and 'let it rip' calling it a bad cold.

Health minister wants to follow WHO guidelines.

Health minister is twice as popular as the President so the President is reluctant to fire him.

Health minister is afraid of the President.

Stalemate so far.

What will be interesting is if the President gets his way....

Ah, India

Yea, we got it cushy

Grumpy Bear · April 16, 2020

2 hours ago, Thejet07 said:

Grumpy/Ithan. Quick question about those statistics with the whole flu vs covid. 1.) Do you know if for example a patient who has cancer dies and had the flu at the time was labeled as a flu death or cancer death then vs the way how everything is labeled now? 2.) I read through all your earlier statistics but do you believe the labeling was actually done equal to now?

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1.) CDC numbers are "Based on death certificate data..." Direct quote from the CDC. That requires the Medical Examiner to make a determination as to cause of death. It's simple question for him really based on his examination of the corpse or the attendings notes. It's sort of the same question as, "Did the bullet to his lungs kill him or his smoking 3 packs a day for 50 years? If he would have lived a second longer without the bullet then the bullet caused his death. Hope that makes sense.

2.) All processes that improve, change. So equal? No. Improved? Yes. Ask a bigger question. Does it matter statistically?

I have a thousand marbles in a bag of mixed colors. To know PERFECTLY how many of each color there are I have to count the entire population. But to be 99.7% sure I can examine 100 marbles. ANY 100 marbles you care to pull from the bag. I just do the math. If there are six colors in the bag I will be maybe a marble or two off. Does it matter in a thousand marbles? A fraction of a percent error? Really? We're talking now 2 million global. Does a few thousand one way or the other change the percentage significantly? Not even ten thousand does. If there inflating or deflating by a million....well....Don't know what to tell ya.

People are dazzled and confused by the press. The press has an agenda. Poly-ticks has an agenda. The data doesn't come from either but it is spun silly by them both. Ratings. Approval. Votes. Herding the sheep. (Propaganda).

Ask bigger questions and you get clearer answers.

Colossus · April 16, 2020

I think after next week, we're going to see the grand re-opening of America, ladies and gentlemen. Stagger in some areas, but we're gonna get back to work. Keep the faith, my brothers and sisters. And thank you to all of you for your service wherever and however you serve. Semper-Fi, God Bless, Return with Honor.

KARNUT · April 16, 2020

Here's the hope Stan. If the mitigation works as planned and it certainly looks as if it might, then the total for the year will indeed be less than a bad flu year. Let's be honest here. The WORST Flu year. But how does one compare a year of flu that goes unchecked with the results of a world wide effort to radially alter the outcome of 2-SARS? If that isn't apples to oranges I don't know what is.

They are cherry picking the flu years to the highest recorded in a decade. Toss the high and low of the actual numbers and average the remainder and the annual flu death toll is 38,000. Not 61,000.

As of a minute ago the current total Covid-19 death toll is 30,826.

Those same years; 28 MILLION people, on average, are infected compared to 637 THOUSAND.
Currently there were, on average 44 X, as many flu cases and to date nearly the same death toll.

COVID-19 already has nearly the same death toll on 2% of the same confirmed cases.

Imagine what the death toll would be IF 28 million Americans had Covid-19.
Same infection rate as the common flu!
The math is simple Simon met a Pie man.

1.3 MILLION

Apples to apples.
Not apples to cherries.

I find this unthinkable and PRAY mitigation works as well as it has so far
AND
They don't take their foot off it's neck to soon

********************************************************************

This stuff is a matter of public records. The media is aware of this.
The hope the public at large is not.
And they are not.

I’m only a product of what I read. There’s just so much. So yes l believe it’s easier to catch than the flu. Is it as deadly or worse? I’m not sure either way yet. The people who said it was nothing to worry about. Later said something else. I will forgive them either way. They need to own it before people lose all trust, and say screw it. Especially if it’s really as bad as they say. My wife is a very smart hard headed person. She doesn’t believe too much of any of it. She’s taking precautions pretty much at my asking her to. And a new awareness of how bad the reg flu is. I wish they’d take politics out of it. Just give it to us straight. If their wrong we’ll understand. After all this is something new.

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KARNUT · April 16, 2020

And to add. We must reopen soon. The cure can be worse than the disease. Just as many or more deaths can come from the cure. The at risk can stay home. Take pre caution and let’s go. I’m ready to take a trip. I’ll be cautious.

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KARNUT · April 16, 2020

One observation. We were coming home from an out side visit with my mother. We went the way that passed a sonic. One of the few business that has an increased business from all this.

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KARNUT · April 16, 2020

This whole change in the death count. If their goal is to add more fear to the equation it will work. But why would they. How about a patient says do not resuscitate or refuse chemo treatment. Is that suicide? I think some people are trying to save face. Especially in New York.

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KARNUT · April 16, 2020

22 million job losses so far. Those who die from that? Less than 700K infected from the bug. We have an idea of those deaths. No opinion just numbers.

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Donstar · April 16, 2020

5 posts in quick succession! I try responding to one and a new one appears before I post! Anyway, the statistics will hopefully be used to inform. Personally, I hope the reopen doesn't happen until the numbers become much more favourable. Once the pattern is favourable then the reopen needs to be done slowly and methodically. Returning things back to the way they were before a vaccine is found and used world -wide will have devastating results.