Coronavirus

Grumpy Bear · April 20, 2020

6 hours ago, mookdoc6 said:

I already spouted out after it's all said and done..... it will be .5-.9% MR. More than the influenza strains currently circulating absolutely! Probably end up .02% of total USA population dying from exposure to COVID-19

Hopefully, everybody learned something from this....Clean your CRAP! You want to run a business? CLEAN YOUR CRAP ANY HIRE AND PAY MORE PEOPLE TO CLEAN YOUR CRAP! The government will get the savings in the years later as overall influenza cases, andeno's, Corona's etc. all being significantly less than historic trends. Proactive, mindful, diligent steps taken by ALL PEOPLE is required. SHUTTING DOWN THE WHOLE OF THE USA ECONOMY OVER THIS WAS NONSENSE!

THE WHO? All I know about that is Tommy and that was GOOD! CDC=JOKE Fauci=JOKE Where is your mask? Can't wait until the Vaccine comes out and they recommend everybody to take it. Then the other Vaccine that comes out 2yrs from now the one that actually works and has less side effects IS THE ONE YOU SHOULD TAKE! I know much about Medicine is all I can divulge.

.02% of 330 million is 66,000.

66,000 at a .5 to .9 MR is an infection rate of 7.7 to 13.2 million. Those are your numbers and your projection.

2017/2018 flu year. Worst seasonal flu on record over the last 10 seasons.

61,000 dead on 45 million infections. That is a .013% MR

That would make 2SARS using your numbers between 38.5 and 69.2 times more deadly.

Given the information we have, which nearly everyone that doesn't matter claims is under reporting we have in the USA 41,000 dead. Yea 2/3's of your projection on less than a million infections is already in the books. Under reporting books.

Using your MR it's your belief the we currently have a population infection between 8.2 and 45.5 Million people! Double check the math before you reply. I'm still using your projections.

So your saying there are between 10.5 and 69 TIMES MORE CASES in the USA than are being reported? Really? That is not a mistake, that isn't even an error. That is something quite other...….

Using you lowest numbers, 8.2 million and an MR of .5% we are at this minute at 41,000 dead meaning you believe that not one more person will die. Pretty sure you don't believe that. Using your worst case, 45.5 million and an MR of .9% the death toll becomes 409,500 or TEN TIMES the current value. Not quit the flu. Not even a bad flu.

I'm pleased to see the distinguished list that liked that post. I must assume they are in agreement with you. Sound fair? We certainly want to be fair, right?

But lets say just for fun, that not a single person more dies in the millions of millions of, by your math, unresolved cases. That begs a larger question.

To what exactly would you attribute this exceeding low death count on for a disease that is by your count 38X minimum more deadly? One with an unrestrained R-0 of 2.4? How does such a R-0 infect so few people in such a large population. Remember the seasonal flu has a R-0 of 1.3 in a population with a herd immunity and vaccines for the common strains. It still reaches 45 million.

Could it be in fact that SHUTTING DOWN THE WHOLE OF THE USA ECONOMY OVER THIS WAS NONSENSE!, might have actually been a really, REALLY good idea?

Think carefully. Your saying that by a number of your estimations this goes away like Cinderella's pumpkin TONIGHT.

Would it be fair to say that you didn't actually put a pen to pad, a finger to keyboard on a calculator, and let emotion write that post?

That all said and done, if that is your belief...…

mookdoc6 · April 20, 2020

6 minutes ago, Grumpy Bear said:

.02% of 330 million is 66,000.

66,000 at a .5 to .9 MR is an infection rate of 7.7 to 13.2 million. Those are your numbers and your projection.

2017/2018 flu year. Worst seasonal flu on record over the last 10 seasons.

61,000 dead on 45 million infections. That is a .013% MR

That would make 2SARS using your numbers between 38.5 and 69.2 times more deadly.

Given the information we have, which nearly everyone that doesn't matter claims is under reporting we have in the USA 41,000 dead. Yea 2/3's of your projection on less than a million infections is already in the books. Under reporting books.

Using your MR it's your belief the we currently have a population infection between 8.2 and 45.5 Million people! Double check the math before you reply. I'm still using your projections.

So your saying there are between 10.5 and 69 TIMES MORE CASES in the USA than are being reported? Really? That is not a mistake, that isn't even an error. That is something quite other...….

Using you lowest numbers, 8.2 million and an MR of .5% we are at this minute at 41,000 dead meaning you believe that not one more person will die. Pretty sure you don't believe that. Using your worst case, 45.5 million and an MR of .9% the death toll becomes 409,500 or TEN TIMES the current value. Not quit the flu. Not even a bad flu.

I'm pleased to see the distinguished list that liked that post. I must assume they are in agreement with you. Sound fair? We certainly want to be fair, right?

But lets say just for fun, that not a single person more dies in the millions of millions of, by your math, unresolved cases. That begs a larger question.

To what exactly would you attribute this exceeding low death count on for a disease that is by your count 38X minimum more deadly? One with an unrestrained R-0 of 2.4? How does such a R-0 infect so few people in such a large population. Remember the seasonal flu has a R-0 of 1.3 in a population with a herd immunity and vaccines for the common strains. It still reaches 45 million.

Could it be in fact that SHUTTING DOWN THE WHOLE OF THE USA ECONOMY OVER THIS WAS NONSENSE!, might have actually been a really, REALLY good idea?

Think carefully. Your saying that by a number of your estimations this goes away like Cinderella's pumpkin TONIGHT.

Would it be fair to say that you didn't actually put a pen to pad, a finger to keyboard on a calculator, and let emotion write that post?

That all said and done, if that is your belief...…

Grumps,

You would be 100% correct...All day moving rocks/wood...and I am old! No paper/pencil nuthing!

After it's all said and done..... it's .5-.9% Worldwide MR NO WE DON"T KNOW ALL THAT ARE INFECTED OR HAS BEEN. TAKE the current number and factor X10

Now take that number and use Middle point......... .7% that is probably where we are...Take the medicine guy's claim son! Yes, SARS and MERS are VASTLY PROPORTIONALLY more VIRULENT your easily going 30% on MERS! NASTY,NASTY

Grumps,

I might spout at the mouth but I spout truthS! Also, I need you to understand this will go higher than 1.0% and most likely double my high end of .9 with FAT PEOPLE. Sorry, Obese is more proper but I don't have to be proper anymore....I am not kidding either but I can surmise your probably not a fat guy anyway. I am being 100% serious here too about the LARGE ONES...be careful GUY or GAL when your HEAVY with COVID-19

The Zip · April 20, 2020

53 minutes ago, Grumpy Bear said:

Could it be in fact that SHUTTING DOWN THE WHOLE OF THE USA ECONOMY OVER THIS WAS NONSENSE!, might have actually been a really, REALLY good idea?

mookdoc6 · April 20, 2020

8 minutes ago, The Zip said:

Shutting down MAJOR areas of community spread was warranted and never was against that. Much of the shutdown was unnecessary without question.

Edited April 20, 2020 by mookdoc6

KARNUT · April 20, 2020

It’s amazing we’re arguing over to be determined numbers. I watch two programs last night that the doctors on it that are seen on TV daily. They said due to how easy it is to get this bug. They are reasonably certain once the testing is said and done the numbers will be different by a lot. Another way to tell will be the second wave. If the lock down was massively effective. There’s a whole bunch of people just waiting to be infected. We’ll soon find out.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Edited April 20, 2020 by KARNUT

Ithan Henry · April 20, 2020

8 hours ago, mookdoc6 said:

Shutting down MAJOR areas of community spread was warranted and never was against that. Much of the shutdown was unnecessary without question.

I'd like to see some non-essential businesses start to open back up within the next few weeks with the requirement of social distancing continuing. In my area, people have been very respectful and cognizant of following the distancing guidelines.

We do need to continue testing, I'd like to see what the infection rate truly is. I'm reading the results of the studies and honestly don't trust them either way, since they seem to be cherry picking numbers in both directions. I'd like a comprehensive study done that uses either a stratified random sampling or cluster sampling. Seems like the current studies are using samples that don't reflect the actual population which can be deceptive.

Thejet07 · April 20, 2020

I’m Just glad cuomo decided to open up golf courses again and keep gun shops closed. To bad, hunting season is right around the corner.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The Zip · April 20, 2020

26 minutes ago, Thejet07 said:

I’m Just glad cuomo decided to open up golf courses again and keep gun shops closed. To bad, hunting season is right around the corner.

Both should now be looked at the same, just another business in the state easing into opening. Did the gov give a reason why the gun shops are to remain closed?

graystonelbz · April 20, 2020

Golf courses aren't unreasonable, but I don't think the folks protesting had golf courses in mind. A large number of golfers have money and are not in a dire situation as others are that just want to go back to work. Sort of a slap in the face for people who work for a living.

Edited April 20, 2020 by graystonelbz

Grumpy Bear · April 20, 2020

12 hours ago, mookdoc6 said:

Grumps,

You would be 100% correct...All day moving rocks/wood...and I am old! No paper/pencil nuthing!

After it's all said and done..... it's .5-.9% Worldwide MR NO WE DON"T KNOW ALL THAT ARE INFECTED OR HAS BEEN. TAKE the current number and factor X10

Now take that number and use Middle point......... .7% that is probably where we are...Take the medicine guy's claim son! Yes, SARS and MERS are VASTLY PROPORTIONALLY more VIRULENT your easily going 30% on MERS! NASTY,NASTY

Grumps,

I might spout at the mouth but I spout truthS! Also, I need you to understand this will go higher than 1.0% and most likely double my high end of .9 with FAT PEOPLE. Sorry, Obese is more proper but I don't have to be proper anymore....I am not kidding either but I can surmise your probably not a fat guy anyway. I am being 100% serious here too about the LARGE ONES...be careful GUY or GAL when your HEAVY with COVID-19

No offense taken nor hopefully given. I intuit you are a reasonable fellow of good nature and proper wit.

Most of my life I went 6'2" and under 150 pounds. Then 6 years ago quit smoking and tacked on 55 more.

Wife said I looked most fit at 180 ish. I told her the gut was the roof for the tool shed.

She asked, "Why so large"?

:fume:

Edited April 20, 2020 by Grumpy Bear

Grumpy Bear · April 20, 2020

4 hours ago, KARNUT said:

It’s amazing we’re arguing over to be determined numbers. I watch two programs last night that the doctors on it that are seen on TV daily. They said due to how easy it is to get this bug. They are reasonably certain once the testing is said and done the numbers will be different by a lot. Another way to tell will be the second wave. If the lock down was massively effective. There’s a whole bunch of people just waiting to be infected. We’ll soon find out.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I know, right?

I'd just like people to understand the magnitude of the numbers they are arguing over. Currently the total KNOWN infection population is 2.4 million. IF the number were even 5 million that is but....wait for it......0.006% of the world population. Being off a few million cases has nearly zero impact on the percentages we are dealing with. It is literally a fools argument. Claim 10X as many, it doesn't matter. 7.8 billion people is a HUGH pool to dilute. Moves things in scientific notation not in whole numbers.

People are funny about what matters. 75-85 million die in WWII, about 3% of the then 2.3 billion on earth. During Vietnam the body count was show nightly in bags on the ground..... Today a Hummer gets popped by a IED and the world cries more for six than 85 million. 33 miners trapped thousands of feet below the surface in Chile kept the world on the edge of their seats for over two months. And now.... There is a segment of this forum that believes 50 million would be acceptable IF it means their way of life does not get interrupted.

Wait. So six guys we cry over and millions we hope die?

Tell ya what I see in that. Something sad. Live is cheap until it's their life. Their livelihoods. Their dinner table. People are acting like this a bad dinner guest they can order out of their lives.

Ithan Henry · April 20, 2020

2 hours ago, The Zip said:

Both should now be looked at the same, just another business in the state easing into opening. Did the gov give a reason why the gun shops are to remain closed?

I don't know if you can treat them the same way. A store will still put people in a confined space, proper golf etiquette requires social distancing.

The Zip · April 20, 2020

9 minutes ago, Ithan Henry said:

I don't know if you can treat them the same way. A store will still put people in a confined space, proper golf etiquette requires social distancing.

Don't accommodate more than your location can adequately apply social distancing. Golf course, 20. Gun shop, 2. You open both using the same guidelines.

KARNUT · April 20, 2020

I know, right?

I'd just like people to understand the magnitude of the numbers they are arguing over. Currently the total KNOWN infection population is 2.4 million. IF the number were even 5 million that is but....wait for it......0.006% of the world population. Being off a few million cases has nearly zero impact on the percentages we are dealing with. It is literally a fools argument. Claim 10X as many, it doesn't matter. 7.8 billion people is a HUGH pool to dilute. Moves things in scientific notation not in whole numbers.

People are funny about what matters. 75-85 million die in WWII, about 3% of the then 2.3 billion on earth. During Vietnam the body count was show nightly in bags on the ground..... Today a Hummer gets popped by a IED and the world cries more for six than 85 million. 33 miners trapped thousands of feet below the surface in Chile kept the world on the edge of their seats for over two months. And now.... There is a segment of this forum that believes 50 million would be acceptable IF it means their way of life does not get interrupted.

Wait. So six guys we cry over and millions we hope die?

Tell ya what I see in that. Something sad. Live is cheap until it's their life. Their livelihoods. Their dinner table. People are acting like this a bad dinner guest they can order out of their lives.

A couple things I’ve noticed. It repeatedly said this exercise is to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed. They’d pretty much pin pointed the people who should isolate. They call it a war. That means some of us are soldiers. If it’s means preserving our way of life I’ll volunteer. And I’ll take precautions. The unwilling can simply stay at home. If they run out of funds, pension, Ira, saving, then they can make the choice. We’re already seeing the economic challenges we face in just a couple weeks. Unrest is already starting. I think the decision are being made. I prefer not to see civil unrest. A certain governor wants money to open his area. He’s got it backwards. We stay the course much longer the bugs not going to be the worry. I thought I lead a sheltered life. I see what’s coming. You seem to think people are willing to sacrifice lives to open. It’s the opposite, opening to save lives, property, and a way of life.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Cpl_Punishment · April 20, 2020

2 hours ago, Grumpy Bear said:

I know, right?

I'd just like people to understand the magnitude of the numbers they are arguing over. Currently the total KNOWN infection population is 2.4 million. IF the number were even 5 million that is but....wait for it......0.006% of the world population. Being off a few million cases has nearly zero impact on the percentages we are dealing with. It is literally a fools argument. Claim 10X as many, it doesn't matter. 7.8 billion people is a HUGH pool to dilute. Moves things in scientific notation not in whole numbers.

People are funny about what matters. 75-85 million die in WWII, about 3% of the then 2.3 billion on earth. During Vietnam the body count was show nightly in bags on the ground..... Today a Hummer gets popped by a IED and the world cries more for six than 85 million. 33 miners trapped thousands of feet below the surface in Chile kept the world on the edge of their seats for over two months. And now.... There is a segment of this forum that believes 50 million would be acceptable IF it means their way of life does not get interrupted.

Wait. So six guys we cry over and millions we hope die?

Tell ya what I see in that. Something sad. Live is cheap until it's their life. Their livelihoods. Their dinner table. People are acting like this a bad dinner guest they can order out of their lives.