Coronavirus

graystonelbz · April 8, 2020

36 minutes ago, Cpl_Punishment said:

I guess the conservative premier of Alberta who wants to get pipelines built is in on the anti Trump conspiracy too.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6792047/kenney-alberta-coronavirus-covid-19-tv-address/

Man, you're right, these models have all been so accurate thus far. I'm gonna go out first thing in the morning and select a Coffin and headstone. Models are very interesting, like that one that said it wasn't going to rain today. Well to my surprise we had a thunderstorm this morning with hail....that must just be an exception to the rule. Models are used to make predictions, not to show facts....and predictions are just guesses. I work construction in a state where we only have 6 to 7 good months of a work season. If I ran my business on those kinds of models I would never be able to complete jobs.

Edited April 8, 2020 by graystonelbz

Grumpy Bear · April 8, 2020

Day is near done. It's also chart day.

World wide 1.4 million and change. 500,998 new cases. As dismal as that might sound it's only 8% above the last 7 day total. Previous weeks were closer to 200% per week. So good news!

USA seems about a week behind the world on the curve I track. 187K new cases v 148K week previous. Still an improvement over the previous 254% increase but far from flat.

Without social distancing these curves don't flatten until the saturation point of the worlds population is taken.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Grumpy Bear

The Zip · April 8, 2020

5 minutes ago, Grumpy Bear said:

Day is near done. It's also chart day.

World wide 1.4 million and change. 500,998 new cases. As dismal as that might sound it's only 8% above the last 7 day total. Previous weeks were closer to 200% per week. So good news!

USA seems about a week behind the world on the curve I track. 187K new cases v 148K week previous. Still an improvement over the previous 254% increase but far from flat.

Without social distancing these curves don't flatten until the saturation point of the worlds population is taken.

Good job with the charts.

The Zip · April 8, 2020

African Americans make up 26% of the population in Milwaukee and 76% of the Covid 19 deaths, catastrophic. I do believe their were underlying health conditions that they mentioned, but a large number of the population has those issues. Most people are sheltering at home and the people they are showing are not jitterbugs on the street. I think that a large portion of that community is out doing jobs like food service, public transportation, health care, and similar jobs requiring them to be out right now.

Edited April 8, 2020 by The Zip

Likarok · April 8, 2020

2 hours ago, Cpl_Punishment said:

I guess the conservative premier of Alberta who wants to get pipelines built is in on the anti Trump conspiracy too.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6792047/kenney-alberta-coronavirus-covid-19-tv-address/

No Canadians are on any Anti Trump campaign. We have no way to influence your politics. Especially Alberta. I will admit that there are Canadians that think Trump is crazy but just like there are a number of Americans who think he is crazy. In Fact it is Trump that is allowing Alberta's pipeline to get built. But you should also realize that shale oil from North Dakota is also going to go through it to Nebraska and then through a existing pipeline to the gulf coast refineries.

We have enough trouble with our own knucklehead politicians, we don't need yours to. It is the facemask fight that have people wondering what is going on. The Canadian/American economies are so linked together that you can't just make off the cuff decisions like the President did. Anyway the masks are moving now and everyone is happy. 3M is a world wide company and they are sending medical equipment all over the world.

You just need to worry about the Democrats and Pelosi.

Colossus · April 8, 2020

7 hours ago, Ithan Henry said:

Hey now that's too far. I liked the Impala. LOL

Yeah, me too Them are fighting words. 94-96 were great, and even the 2013 I had was good (had the 3.6L VVT 6-speed auto, and would run circles around the 94-96s but i'd still take a 94-96 anyday)

KARNUT · April 8, 2020

Baseball is trying to come back they say. Without taking up space explaining what their planing. Here’s an idea. Go back to normal starting without the fans. Every body is in an control environment right now. We also have a quick test that’s been developed. Teams have their own planes. Everything can be controlled. If anyone could shake off the bug athletes can. Other sports like NASCAR can to. Players can op out, I’m sure some one would be happy to step in. It can be done, someone needs to step up. First responders face the unknown daily, with no controls. They could control everything.

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KARNUT · April 8, 2020

It’s amazing to me a few people who are older with life experience and common sense. Can come closer to reality of this situation than the experts. Before the usual screamers come out. Let the wide spread testing take place before we pat ourselves on the back for the isolation . And ruining many business. I believe many more people have had it than most people believe. Another thing that make sense to reasonable people. Or do we discount the fact the hundreds of people gathered at grocery stores without masks, closer than six ft?

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Grumpy Bear · April 8, 2020

Same chart I posted last night with Total Cases added. (orange). The Yellow line, as stated before is the number of new cases that week and as you can see 'flattening' that curve still adds to the total. There is one more chart that enhances the story.

Acceleration is the difference between last weeks average increase per day vs the current weeks average daily increase. As you can see in the World charts it has dipped negative twice without halting the progress of this disease. This line has to go negative and STAY negative until the number of new cases reaches zero. At that point the Orange line above goes flat. That means all three lines need be considered in concert to see entire picture.

If you give this thought it may occur to you that it isn't just flattening the curve the matters but the height of that curve when it goes flat. The lower on the scale that becomes the easier it becomes for health care to not just treat patients but treat them to a favorable resolution. That balance point is when the number of new cases = the number of resolved cases that NEED ICU/Vent care. Those numbers are not published anywhere I've found so far.

In an earlier post I linked a chart that showed the difference in case increase by delaying social distancing by just one day and it was a 40% difference.

You can flatten the curve and have it so high that people NEEDLESSY die to a health system overrun or you can flatten it at a lower point and everyone gets the best care possible.

The difference in those two is the difference between being responsible and being irresponsible.

IMHO

graystonelbz · April 8, 2020

The main model that everyone has referred to from the beginning dropped again by around 20,000 deaths in just a few day, down to 60,000 ish through August. People are starting to ask questions about these models that have been no where near accurate thus far. My prediction is that people, particularly in a state like mine where the problem is minimal in comparison, are not going to go along with having their lives ruined much longer. This is going to start to happen in many parts of the country. Bad things are on the horizon if the life doesn't go on soon. Many people are reaching desperate circumstances, and you know what happens when desperate people feel like they are boxed in.

graystonelbz · April 8, 2020

Are these the kinds of numbers that the graph man is looking for?

MN data

1154 cases

271 total hospitalizations

135 currently hospitalized

64 in ICU

632 recoveries

39 deaths

Ithan Henry · April 8, 2020

48 minutes ago, KARNUT said:

It’s amazing to me a few people who are older with life experience and common sense. Can come closer to reality of this situation than the experts. Before the usual screamers come out. Let the wide spread testing take place before we pat ourselves on the back for the isolation . And ruining many business. I believe many more people have had it than most people believe. Another thing that make sense to reasonable people. Or do we discount the fact the hundreds of people gathered at grocery stores without masks, closer than six ft?

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Problem with the wide spread testing is that we didn't have the necessary tests when this first started, and the early tests were flawed so they needed to be fixed. As for the experts and their models, the Surgeon General explained yesterday that the models were based on only 50% of Americans following the guidelines. Turns out a much higher percentage has been practicing the social distancing so the models would need to be re-assessed, which we knew would need to happen on at least a week to week basis. Statistics can only predict with a certain amount of error what might happen, not what will happen.

graystonelbz · April 8, 2020

2 minutes ago, Ithan Henry said:

Problem with the wide spread testing is that we didn't have the necessary tests when this first started, and the early tests were flawed so they needed to be fixed. As for the experts and their models, the Surgeon General explained yesterday that the models were based on only 50% of Americans following the guidelines. Turns out a much higher percentage has been practicing the social distancing so the models would need to be re-assessed, which we knew would need to happen on at least a week to week basis. Statistics can only predict with a certain amount of error what might happen, not what will happen.

and people aren't comfortable with their lives being destroyed over what might happen. Valid or not all people in tough situations are going to lose faith in all future models of this kind. Never good when you lose the peoples faith.

graystonelbz · April 8, 2020

With the way Cuomo is talking right now I expect alot of people looking to move out of New York in the future....not a good move to tell people they will never live a normal life again....WOW. He didn't do his job from day 1 and because he is a Democrat he will not be called out for HIS shortcomings.

KARNUT · April 8, 2020

Problem with the wide spread testing is that we didn't have the necessary tests when this first started, and the early tests were flawed so they needed to be fixed. As for the experts and their models, the Surgeon General explained yesterday that the models were based on only 50% of Americans following the guidelines. Turns out a much higher percentage has been practicing the social distancing so the models would need to be re-assessed, which we knew would need to happen on at least a week to week basis. Statistics can only predict with a certain amount of error what might happen, not what will happen.

They said there weren’t many A symptomatic people walking around. That’s changing too. Their saying 50 percent or more.

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