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KARNUT

By KARNUT
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Likarok Senior Enthusiast

Likarok

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When you think that China, Korea, Italy, Iran and others have been battling this since January, we have a long way to go yet, And a lot of hurt physically and mentally. 

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KARNUT
KARNUT

I’m wondering. Remember H1-N1? Mass hysteria? Stock Market going crazy? Who’s going to make money? Who’s pushing the most hysteria?

diyer2
diyer2
MaverickZ71
MaverickZ71

I work in a gov't office in a secret underground undisclosed location, as they say.  No, really.  We received a briefing from an epidemiologist in Washington State.  He said that if you put someone in

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flyingfool Senior Enthusiast

flyingfool

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8 hours ago, HeySkippyDog said:

I tried the Kent Rollins Big Mac recipe not long ago. Came out spot on.

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he makes good coffee.. and hot chili too

The Zip Senior Enthusiast

The Zip

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Never saw this much death of Americans treating treating Americans in a hospital setting, and I was in Desert Storm.  The states with stay home orders and increased testing is getting swamped.  With throwing everything at this in multi hospitals, major cities just can't get enough of anything.  For states that doesn't have an order or late in the game, it will be worse.  Especially those locations with primary rural communities where they have one hospital; where first responders are the same person.  WH Dr's say best case scenario if everyone follow the suggested stay at home request, will be at least 100k deaths.  "Hoping" everyone does the right thing, then prepare for a worse case scenario.  The medical community will need psychiatric help after this, PTSD is real.   

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flyingfool Senior Enthusiast

flyingfool

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13 hours ago, The Zip said:

Never saw this much death of Americans treating treating Americans in a hospital setting, and I was in Desert Storm.  The states with stay home orders and increased testing is getting swamped.  With throwing everything at this in multi hospitals, major cities just can't get enough of anything.  For states that doesn't have an order or late in the game, it will be worse.  Especially those locations with primary rural communities where they have one hospital; where first responders are the same person.  WH Dr's say best case scenario if everyone follow the suggested stay at home request, will be at least 100k deaths.  "Hoping" everyone does the right thing, then prepare for a worse case scenario.  The medical community will need psychiatric help after this, PTSD is real.   

100K deaths is about the yearly flu death rate these past few years

KARNUT Senior Enthusiast

KARNUT

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60K deaths is a bad flu year. Some think in certain areas, California for one Coronavirus may be mixed in there with flu. The reason is early in the year they believe it was already there. That reason is that’s where most China travelers come in. People are puzzled why at the moment California is not the epicenter. Herd immunity is the thinking there. Meanwhile 10 million layoffs in the last two weeks.


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Grumpy Bear Senior Enthusiast

Grumpy Bear

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https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-similarities-and-differences-covid-19-and-influenza#

 

First case reported Dec 8 2019, First death Jan 11, 2020. We are four months into this and comparing death rates to the ANNUAL deaths? C' mon man. Really? 

 

Crude data analysis based on 1 week intervals from Johns Hopkins shows a STEADY 250% week over week new case rate 3 period moving average. Acceleration rate is still positive.

 

This chart is NOT the cumulative number of cases but the number of new cases week over week world wide. 

The USA currently contributing 1/4 of the new cases.

 

 1492132804_NewCases.thumb.png.5dc1aee9d114a9410378d929a72df83c.png

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Bob2C Enthusiast

Bob2C

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Posted

I just don’t know what to make of this anymore. At some point the economy need to start up again. But with that said, all it takes is one person to start this infection process all over again. Many are showing no sign but could be infected. So how does life return to “normal”. Just mind boggling


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The Zip Senior Enthusiast

The Zip

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, KARNUT said:

Some think in certain areas, California for one Coronavirus may be mixed in there with flu. The reason is early in the year they believe it was already there. That reason is that’s where most China travelers come in. People are puzzled why at the moment California is not the epicenter. Herd immunity is the thinking there.

No debate on your California (Ca) data, it may very well be correct.  Antibodies here could be rampant.  However in my little portion of Ca, people jumped on this right away.  We read the tea leaves when the US gov started flying in folks and distributing them throughout the state, even before the state of Washington numbers started coming in.  Hand cleaner, hand washing, masks, distance, and shielding showed up immediately.

 

Yes larger cities like LA, San Fran, and a couple more coastal cities is strained with social distancing, but the vastness of the territory dictate everyday social distancing, without Covid 19.  With the greatest number of people in the country being in Ca, it may not make sense.  But I'm not as surprised as someone not living here.

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KARNUT Senior Enthusiast

KARNUT

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I just don’t know what to make of this anymore. At some point the economy need to start up again. But with that said, all it takes is one person to start this infection process all over again. Many are showing no sign but could be infected. So how does life return to “normal”. Just mind boggling


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Booze sales have doubled. Domestic violence is up. There’s several reasons for work to start back up soon. I think everyone is willing to give it this month. Como says NY may be near or at the peak. The only thing that will convince people to sit longer is if the death rate really does start doubling. I’m optimistic that wouldn’t happen. If it does anarchy. My eye is on overseas. When they start the down curve I believe ours will. The only problem with ours is the decline may be slower. For obvious reasons. Some promising treatments out there may help. For get anything involving W.H.O. their in China’s pocket. Just look at their early statements, some we relied on.


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KARNUT Senior Enthusiast

KARNUT

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https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-similarities-and-differences-covid-19-and-influenza#
 
First case reported Dec 8 2019, First death Jan 11, 2020. We are four months into this and comparing death rates to the ANNUAL deaths? C' mon man. Really? 
 
Crude data analysis based on 1 week intervals from Johns Hopkins shows a STEADY 250% week over week new case rate 3 period moving average. Acceleration rate is still positive.
 

This chart is NOT the cumulative number of cases but the number of new cases week over week world wide. 

The USA currently contributing 1/4 of the new cases.

 

 1492132804_NewCases.thumb.png.5dc1aee9d114a9410378d929a72df83c.png


I can’t open your first part.


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Grumpy Bear Senior Enthusiast

Grumpy Bear

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Just now, KARNUT said:


I can’t open your first part.


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Try a cut and paste. Like works for me. 

Grumpy Bear Senior Enthusiast

Grumpy Bear

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2 hours ago, KARNUT said:

60K deaths is a bad flu year. Some think in certain areas, California for one Coronavirus may be mixed in there with flu. The reason is early in the year they believe it was already there. That reason is that’s where most China travelers come in. People are puzzled why at the moment California is not the epicenter. Herd immunity is the thinking there. Meanwhile 10 million layoffs in the last two weeks.


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California is three times larger than New York State. New York City is twice as populous as LA. A disease that is pasted by close contact (six feet) NYC wins by a landslide. Just a thought. Might not be the reason but one that makes sense. 

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Grumpy Bear Senior Enthusiast

Grumpy Bear

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31 minutes ago, Bob2C said:

I just don’t know what to make of this anymore. At some point the economy need to start up again. But with that said, all it takes is one person to start this infection process all over again. Many are showing no sign but could be infected. So how does life return to “normal”. Just mind boggling

I expect the same thoughts went through the minds of the German people when Germany was carpet bombed into a pancake. Poland when Warsaw was leveled. Hiroshima Japan, London and Coventry. When Atlanta was burnt to the ground.

 

I wonder what nine million American Indians thought that died to the diseases/plagues of Europeans between James Town and the Revolution. Most of the indigenous South American peoples when Spain landed. West Africa and the Portuguese.

Jerusalem when under siege that had mothers eating there own children. 

 

Actually I expect their immediate thought was, "How do I survive this"?

 

I'm not trying to be morbid here but first things first and the rest WILL HAPPEN. 

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KARNUT Senior Enthusiast

KARNUT

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California is three times larger than New York State. New York City is twice as populous as LA. A disease that is pasted by close contact (six feet) NYC wins by a landslide. Just a thought. Might not be the reason but one that makes sense. 

I’m reading and watching everything thing I can. Nothing else to do really. I was disturbed the most when I saw the earlier WHO presser. Pretty much praising China. CNN troubles me with the constant Trump basing. Hannity makes me puke. The lady doctor at the nightly presser seems reasonable. Dr Fauci I don’t trust, his numbers seem out there. Nancy and Chuck are chomping at the bit to start another investigation. Trump was shutting down travel as they were walking impeachment papers to the senate. What a country. Proving watch- read all you can. Throw away the high and the low, the truth is somewhere in the middle.


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The Zip Senior Enthusiast

The Zip

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6 minutes ago, KARNUT said:


I’m reading and watching everything thing I can. Nothing else to do really. I was disturbed the most when I saw the earlier WHO presser. Pretty much praising China. CNN troubles me with the constant Trump basing. Hannity makes me puke. The lady doctor at the nightly presser seems reasonable. Dr Fauci I don’t trust, his numbers seem out there. Nancy and Chuck are chomping at the bit to start another investigation. Trump was shutting down travel as they were walking impeachment papers to the senate. What a country. Proving watch- read all you can. Throw away the high and the low, the truth is somewhere in the middle.


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Good points, but the country is either left or right.  Where is this middle?

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