Buy now or wait until 2019?

truckguy82 · June 26, 2017

Again, incorrect. For instance when the new Tacoma hit the floor, the previous generation value didnt tank. Same goes with GMs, Fords and RAM. If anything dealer inventory prices drop to clear room for the incoming model, but the residual value of the used market doesnt bottom out. There has been and will always be a used market for trucks. As others have said, with truck prices soaring above $50K, there will be those looking to spend around $30K for a good condition optioned out model. This doesnt change, there are 2007-2013s going for low to mid $20Ks all over the place....hardly thefloor dropping out of a 5-10 year old vehicle.

https://www.kbb.com/chevrolet/silverado-1500-crew-cab/2014/ltz-pickup-4d-5-3-4-ft/?vehicleid=390079&intent=buy-used&pricetype=retail&condition=good

https://www.kbb.com/chevrolet/silverado-1500-crew-cab/2013/ltz-pickup-4d-5-3-4-ft/?vehicleid=379223&intent=buy-used

https://www.kbb.com/chevrolet/silverado-1500-crew-cab/2007/ltz-pickup-4d-5-3-4-ft/?vehicleid=347461&intent=buy-used&pricetype=retail&condition=good

Who said anything about the floor falling out, or tanking, I said the values will fall. You just made that up in your own head that I was implying our current trucks will be worthless. Used truck prices look something like this, with the small increase in price for each redesign. The newer body style is just worth more.

My point is, if the '19 and '18 are the same price, you're going to take more of a depreciation hit on the '18 as soon as the '19 is released

Silverado Steve · June 26, 2017

Every year that goes by, the used price of a truck falls, theres nothing shocking in that and it has nothing to do with the 2019s coming out as you mentioned earlier. Again your original statement bears no fact. Also something to consider, the 2019s expect a price increase, which would lead anyone to understand a higher price tag=higher value. That again has little to do with the 2014s-2018s losing more value. The 2014 came with a price increase over the 2007-2013.

Who said anything about the floor falling out, or tanking, I said the values will fall. You just made that up in your own head that I was implying our current trucks will be worthless. Used truck prices look something like this, with the small increase in price for each redesign. The newer body style is just worth more.

My point is, if the '19 and '18 are the same price, you're going to take more of a depreciation hit on the '18 as soon as the '19 is released

truckguy82 · June 26, 2017

Every year that goes by, the used price of a truck falls, theres nothing shocking in that and it has nothing to do with the 2019s coming out as you mentioned earlier. Again your original statement bears no fact. Also something to consider, the 2019s expect a price increase, which would lead anyone to understand a higher price tag=higher value. That again has little to do with the 2014s-2018s losing more value. The 2014 came with a price increase over the 2007-2013.

KBB values for used private party sale 4wd crew cab slt in very good condition with 50k miles

2015 - $33,015- 1.3% increase from a 2014

2014 - $32,584- 15% increase from a 2013 2014 MSRP when new - $45,010 = 2.2% increase in msrp

2013 - $28,307- 3.4% increase from a 2012 2013 MSRP when new - $44,035

2012 - $27,373- 3.6% increase from a 2011

2011 - $26,397 - 3.3% increase from a 2010

2010 - $25,550 -

If we assume a 3.5% average depreciation by year, the major update in 2014 created a whopping 11.5% spike in depreciation for 2013 and below, even though it was only 2.2% cheaper when new. We can go around collecting more data from GM or various other manufacturers, but I don't have all day. It should be just common sense that the newer body style is going to be more desirable in the used market because people want the newer looking truck, I'm not sure why I had to lay out the stats.

If you want to be the guy that bought the 2013, be my guest, but I'd hold out a little longer for the updated model since it will be on the positive side of the depreciation dip that happens after every redesign from nearly every manufacturer out there.

Silverado Steve · June 26, 2017

In all this conversation, you are missing a key premise of resale value.....supply and demand. In order to consider that, one key ingredient needs to be known....what demand is, which goes back to your statement of the 2019 will have a higher value. Seeing how the 2019s havent hit the market yet, no one knows what that will be, and we may not really know until 2-3 years after release when the first leased 2019s start to make their way back into the used market. If we go strictly by market trend for past model GM trucks according to KBB, the 2007-2013s retained approximately 52% of their initial residual value at the 60 month mark. Guess what KBB projects the 2014-2018 model to retain at the 60 month mark? If you guessed 52% you would be a winner. There is little to no indication that this will change when the 2019s hit the market, let alone the 2019s will deviate from this factor. Seeing how the 2014-2018 had a higher sticker price versus the 2007-2013 by about $1500 across most trims, it wouldn't be far fetched to believe the 2014 has a higher resale, however you have to consider the markup. Also most vehicles suffer their biggest depreciation in the first 36 months, with the biggest loss coming between the 12-24 month mark. Here's a litmus test to dispell your assertion...lets look at advertised trade in losses posters here in GM Trucks have claimed when trading in a 1 year old truck....many are claiming a $5K-$8K loss going from a 2014 to 2015, a 2016 to a 2017 which =10%-15% loss which has nothing to do with different models, so it would bear to support why the 2013 suffered a 13% depreciation versus the 2014 in the stats you posted.

Last, in your assertion, you are forgetting one key ingredient....those who buy a 2018 will pay (or should pay) significantly lower prices versus MSRP with the 2019s making their way to the lot...therefore if a buyer picks up a 2018 for <25% off MSRP...and that someone buys a 2018 with an MSRP of $53K for $40K and turns around and trades it in for $35K on a new 2019 losing only $5K and someone who buys a $55K 2019 for $48K and turns around and trades it in for $43K,the loss suffered by each is the same meaning resale value is the same. Resale value is a ratio of (price sold or traded/price paid)....the only loser in this equation is the buyer who unknowingly buys a 2018 early in the year for high value unknowing that a new model is on the horizon. In all of this, i maintain there is no truth or fact in what you said that a 2019 will hold its value better than the previous gen. Your statement is pure conjecture.

KBB values for used private party sale 4wd crew cab slt in very good condition with 50k miles

2015 - $33,015- 1.3% increase from a 2014

2014 - $32,584- 15% increase from a 2013 2014 MSRP when new - $45,010 = 2.2% increase in msrp

2013 - $28,307- 3.4% increase from a 2012 2013 MSRP when new - $44,035

2012 - $27,373- 3.6% increase from a 2011

2011 - $26,397 - 3.3% increase from a 2010

2010 - $25,550 -

If we assume a 3.5% average depreciation by year, the major update in 2014 created a whopping 11.5% spike in depreciation for 2013 and below, even though it was only 2.2% cheaper when new. We can go around collecting more data from GM or various other manufacturers, but I don't have all day. It should be just common sense that the newer body style is going to be more desirable in the used market because people want the newer looking truck, I'm not sure why I had to lay out the stats.

If you want to be the guy that bought the 2013, be my guest, but I'd hold out a little longer for the updated model since it will be on the positive side of the depreciation dip that happens after every redesign from nearly every manufacturer out there.

Donstar · June 26, 2017

Long time follower, first time poster. I've been keeping up with the site for a while now and first off want to say thank you to all th

If you were in the market for a new truck would you wait until 2019 or buy a 2017 / 2018? Welcome any thoughts and comments.

Please let us know if all this analysis helps you to decide! I just wanted to add that if you do choose to take advantage of a good deal prior to 2019, you won't be disappointed! You will be particularly impressed with the improved power, economy and comfort over your current model!

truckguy82 · June 26, 2017

In all of this, i maintain there is no truth or fact in what you said that a 2019 will hold its value better than the previous gen. Your statement is pure conjecture.

Then please tell me why a 2014 is worth 15% more than a 2013, when their msrp's were only 2.2% different.

Everybody on the entire forum would happily agree that the reason is because of a major redesign. There is no other reason.

I have a newsflash for you, the 2014 is likely always going to be worth 15% more than a 2013. A 2019 is likely always going to be worth considerably more than a 2018.

If you can get the '18 for a lot cheaper, sure it might be worth it, but that's unlikely if it's not used. It's not like they are going to sell '19's at some huge premium without the usual incentives.

Edit: I can't believe I forgot who you were, you are the biggest bonehead on the forum, I'm completely done with this debate, you win

Silverado Steve · June 26, 2017

Then please tell me why a 2014 is worth 15% more than a 2013, when their msrp's were only 2.2% different.

Everybody on the entire forum would happily agree that the reason is because of a major redesign. There is no other reason.

I have a newsflash for you, the 2014 is likely always going to be worth 15% more than a 2013. A 2019 is likely always going to be worth considerably more than a 2018.

If you can get the '18 for a lot cheaper, sure it might be worth it, but that's unlikely if it's not used. It's not like they are going to sell '19's at some huge premium without the usual incentives.

I already told you why in my last post...its the penalty of resale after one year, coupled with the deep discount GM offers to move old inventory. The same applies between a 2014 and 2015, a 2015 from a 2016 and a 2016 and 2017. Take any truck and try to trade or sell a 1 year old truck and expect to lose 10-15%. The loss rate remains relatively the same for a 2018 versus a 2019 if that person got a deep discount on a 2018. If what you keep maintaining is the truth, no one would ever buy the last model run before a redesign.

Again you are comparing apples to oranges. You are using values of a new 2019 versus what would be considered a used value 2018.

You sound like Donald Trump using the argument its true cause everyone knows it. Three other people have discounted what you said.

I think you need to look in a mirror before calling anyone a bonehead...the math is pretty simple. A new 2019 commanding a price closer to MSRP has the same ratio of loss as someone who bought an outgoing 2018 with a bigger discount (again pointed out in previous post)....it's really not hard to figure out. You must have a crystal ball to predict a 2019 will hold its value better than a 2018.

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reardiff · June 26, 2017

Thanks for all the replies and things to consider. Lots of really good information to soak in here. My 03 is running fine and am not in a immediate need but is starting to develop some small leaks and rockers are trashed with rust. So trying to cover all options before jumping into something new. This will be an all cash purchase and departing with that kind of $$ makes you think long and hard before pulling the trigger.

I have a couple more questions which I may post new subject on so you may see some new topics coming up,but making use of all the past posts and search feature first.

bboyce536 · June 26, 2017

Long time follower, first time poster. I've been keeping up with the site for a while now and first off want to say thank you to all those who contribute and help provide great information. I'm in the market for a new truck, but not sure which model year to go with. My 2003 has treated me exceptionally well but about ready for an upgrade and have some questions.

The K2 Future Vehicle forum is dead so figured I'd ask some questions here. Realizing there is very little public yet about the redesigned 2019, what are the thoughts on buying now vs.. waiting for what the new 2019 models? What is the general consensus on powertrain options for 2019 or is it too early to tell yet? I hear nothing but great things about the 6.2 / 8 speed, but wondering what the engine / transmission options will be for 2019 and if it's worth holding out another year and a half? I'm also not a fan of the start/stop technology Ford is using in their 2018 and thinking GM may do the same which may tip the scales.

If you were in the market for a new truck would you wait until 2019 or buy a 2017 / 2018? Welcome any thoughts and comments.

The 19s will have the 5.3 and 6.2 but paired with the new 10 speed. A new 2.7 turbo 4cyl and a late relase 3.0 diesel.

Personally couldn't pay me to buy another k2 truck and I'd also want to wait until the second model year to make sure all the k2 bugs have been ironed out for the T series trucks.

I'd expect a roughly 500lb weight savings and an extra mpg or two as well completely redesigned interiors.

Silverado Steve · June 26, 2017

Where did you find info on the diesel size and a 2.7? I read a report that mentioned a possible 4.3 turbo...that would be pretty beefy if true. Pics i saw of the interior, especially the dask looked an awful lot like the current gen.

The 19s will have the 5.3 and 6.2 but paired with the new 10 speed. A new 2.7 turbo 4cyl and a late relase 3.0 diesel.

Personally couldn't pay me to buy another k2 truck and I'd also want to wait until the second model year to make sure all the k2 bugs have been ironed out for the T series trucks.

I'd expect a roughly 500lb weight savings and an extra mpg or two as well completely redesigned interiors.

kstruckcountry · June 27, 2017

Then please tell me why a 2014 is worth 15% more than a 2013, when their msrp's were only 2.2% different.

Everybody on the entire forum would happily agree that the reason is because of a major redesign. There is no other reason.

I have a newsflash for you, the 2014 is likely always going to be worth 15% more than a 2013. A 2019 is likely always going to be worth considerably more than a 2018.

If you can get the '18 for a lot cheaper, sure it might be worth it, but that's unlikely if it's not used. It's not like they are going to sell '19's at some huge premium without the usual incentives.

Edit: I can't believe I forgot who you were, you are the biggest bonehead on the forum, I'm completely done with this debate, you win

Also look how much more the 2005, 6, and 7 classic models have depreciated compared to the 2007.... what wait, they haven't. In fact, I've seen a 2007 classic 2500 appreciate! It really does depend on the scenario, depreciation can be very fluid based on a lot of factors.

In 2007, a major technology change was made to the AFM system. This has hurt the values on them, and a few members on here have "downgraded" to the 800s.

There's a decent chance GM comes out with another tech "improvement" in the future that causes the same thing to happen again. Who knows.

If I was in the market for a new vehicle, I'd pull the trigger now, there are some great deals. Great deals that probably won't be seen on the next update, the first year.

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mxracer47y · June 27, 2017

id wait

FL335i · June 27, 2017

IMO, the '14 -'16 Silverado is the best looking truck GM has made since the late 87-91 K5 blazer/jimmy. I do not care for the Silverado refresh. They made it looks like a car or Camaro. Not bad, just not for me. The refresh on the Sierra looks decent and still looks like a truck. I would wait and see what the '19's have to offer and are going for and wait for what incentives GM and the dealers throw at the '18's so you can look at both side by side in person and see both deals black and white and make your financial decision based on facts in front of you, not what ifs and hoopla. Case in point... I bought a '07 F250 6.0 FX4 when the '08 refresh were loaded on the lots. The dealer had like 3 old 6.0's left on the lot. The truck was as if I had custom ordered it myself (did not tell them that) and I got a smoking deal and never had an issue with that truck. Plus the '08 refresh was ugly as sin and turns out was a turd. So looking back, I made a great decision on buying the last mule on the lot. And last year models don't have the issues new models have. That's one reason I bought my wife's '15 Buick Enclave. And i jump on the F250 and Youtube channels every now and then... guess what everyone is clamming for. the last year of the 6.0. I remember when I couldn't fill that truck up without some idiot asking me how many issues I had with it. "None". I've learned to think longer than you think you need to. Wait for facts. The internet and hoopla fade over time, facts and loans don't. I would wait for both 18's and 19's to be on the lot. May the best truck/financial decision be the winner!!!

bboyce536 · June 27, 2017

Where did you find info on the diesel size and a 2.7? I read a report that mentioned a possible 4.3 turbo...that would be pretty beefy if true. Pics i saw of the interior, especially the dask looked an awful lot like the current gen.

Can't really say, not sure I was supposed to say. I've Been told little peices of info like this in the past that have always been correct for whatever that's worth.