Inventory and ordering lead times

[03 Cobra]

9 hours ago, elcamino said:

Friend does the dealer ordering

This is what he gave me for 2022 (dates are fluid, subject to change or delays so dates are as of this past Weds))

2500HD 1st order cycle is scheduled for 8/12 allocation, production start 7/12/21 

1500LD  1st order cycle is scheduled for 8/12 w/allocation, production start 9/20/21

 

 

 

Elcamino, thanks for the details.  Let's hope no new challenges come up.  It's interesting that the HD first allocation is 8/12 when production starts 7/12.  I wonder why dealers can't order right away.

[Supercup]

I would go up to 2,000 miles to get what I wanted for 3500 AT4.  Bought 2019 AT4 in Phx - so 565 miles away, in 2020 bought AT4 Carbon Pro in N. Cal - about 500 miles away.  No issue going elsewhere to get something that is very close to what I want, if the price is right.  RIght now no benefit to go any distance just to pay ADM, pretty much everywhere.   

 

I put gave my dealer what I wanted to order this week, 3500 AT4 loaded - they called me and said - have 1 AT4 on order ahead of me, took 3 weeks to get picked up by GM.  In my case they were not as hopeful as there was hold on AT4, hold on AT4 premium package and a separate hold on the Technology package.  They checked with rep - he told them expect it to get picked up as official order in 3-8 weeks and delivery in 3-6 months from that date - so best case that puts in me October. 

 

So I am looking at a 2021 Ford Tremor that will arrive at dealer in two weeks that is not sold - want $5k ADM.  But truck has everything I need - missing a few wants, but they are not must have's.  Dealer offered to order me a 2022 with new 12" screen and tech package and said it would be 10-12 weeks for delivery.  So that also puts me at Sept/October.

 

So no good GM options which is my preferred truck.  Tremor is a nice truck also, 2021 is now, which is great - the 2022 has better tech, screen etc.   But similar delivery to AT4, so if I did order I think I would just wait for AT4 and hope it does not push out to December. 

 

I have a 2020 1500 AT4 Carbon Pro loaded, BDS/Fox suspension added etc.   Local GMC dealer offered to buy it from me for $62K, and Ford dealer offered $58k in trade.  Going to Car Max Monday to see what they will do.  KBB and Nada for trade in are higher (KBB $65k - $68K and Nada is north of $70k).  It is leased and payoff is $55k.  Values are great and if I can get offer at $65k, I get $10k of equity to throw at the new Tremor, which takes care of ADM and gives me back money for suspension.

 

Decisions Decisions

 

 

Edited July 4, 2021 by Supercup

[2021 HD]

5 hours ago, Supercup said:

I would go up to 2,000 miles to get what I wanted for 3500 AT4.  Bought 2019 AT4 in Phx - so 565 miles away, in 2020 bought AT4 Carbon Pro in N. Cal - about 500 miles away.  No issue going elsewhere to get something that is very close to what I want, if the price is right.  RIght now no benefit to go any distance just to pay ADM, pretty much everywhere.   

 

I put gave my dealer what I wanted to order this week, 3500 AT4 loaded - they called me and said - have 1 AT4 on order ahead of me, took 3 weeks to get picked up by GM.  In my case they were not as hopeful as there was hold on AT4, hold on AT4 premium package and a separate hold on the Technology package.  They checked with rep - he told them expect it to get picked up as official order in 3-8 weeks and delivery in 3-6 months from that date - so best case that puts in me October. 

 

So I am looking at a 2021 Ford Tremor that will arrive at dealer in two weeks that is not sold - want $5k ADM.  But truck has everything I need - missing a few wants, but they are not must have's.  Dealer offered to order me a 2022 with new 12" screen and tech package and said it would be 10-12 weeks for delivery.  So that also puts me at Sept/October.

 

So no good GM options which is my preferred truck.  Tremor is a nice truck also, 2021 is now, which is great - the 2022 has better tech, screen etc.   But similar delivery to AT4, so if I did order I think I would just wait for AT4 and hope it does not push out to December. 

 

I have a 2020 1500 AT4 Carbon Pro loaded, BDS/Fox suspension added etc.   Local GMC dealer offered to buy it from me for $62K, and Ford dealer offered $58k in trade.  Going to Car Max Monday to see what they will do.  KBB and Nada for trade in are higher (KBB $65k - $68K and Nada is north of $70k).  It is leased and payoff is $55k.  Values are great and if I can get offer at $65k, I get $10k of equity to throw at the new Tremor, which takes care of ADM and gives me back money for suspension.

 

Decisions Decisions

 

 

I can see why you do not want to wait 5 months for a truck. From the looks of it you by a new one every 4 months. 

[jd64]

i got lucky and only had to drive 250 miles from N.E. Ohio to N.W. Indiana. i trade every 2 years and wanted to take advantage of the good trade values before the bubble burst. i missed quite a few of trucks for 1 reason or another in 6 weeks of hunting from Massachusetts to just west of Chicago. even had a 22 ordered but didn't want to take the chance of when it would arrive thinking the trade values would change .  i ended up locating the exact 21 truck i had ordered in the 22, it was in transit and i was able to put a deposit on it before it hit the lot. i didn't have to take or give up anything i didn't want, got lucky but it took some persistence. i traded a 20 LTZ HD i purchased in august of 19 when the new models came out and got more money on the trade than i paid for it 22 months ago. 

[nards444]

On 7/4/2021 at 9:31 PM, 2021 HD said:

I can see why you do not want to wait 5 months for a truck. From the looks of it you by a new one every 4 months. 

lol.  I didn't to bad once or twice doing this, basically traded in good and bought low new.  One was when the ecoboost came out, Ford was pricing them really good back in 2011.  Basically traded in what I had clean and then some, and actually walked out of the dealer, borrowing less, and less of a payment.

 

this doesnt happen that often and its near impossible to keep up with the deprecation game,  end of the day guys just see it a monthly number whether it goes up 50 bucks or 100, or they throw cash at it.  It can be done at times in your advantage just rarely. 

[Supercup]

On 7/4/2021 at 6:31 PM, 2021 HD said:

I can see why you do not want to wait 5 months for a truck. From the looks of it you by a new one every 4 months. 

 

LOL - I have owned most trucks for a longer than 4 months - in 2019 I sold my 2014 Raptor with 100k miles - for $45k - loved that.  Before that I had a 3500 4WD SRW diesel Chevy from 2008 - 2014.

 

I leased a new AT4 Carbon Pro in July 2019 - but did not get tow mirrors.  I started towing more after I got that truck - in August 2020 I saw an AT4 Carbon Pro with tow mirrors - emailed dealer GM - he called - over the phone he agreed to take my truck back and lease me new one with $0 drive off - my lease payment went down $50 a month and I got a new truck with tow mirrors and added cameras - so it was an easy decision and a win for both.

 

Fast forward 11 months (to now) and I bought a new toy box, which will weigh in at about 9.8k or a bit more when towing - that is on the outside edge of tow rating for my AT4.  Market for used stuff is crazy - so I have $7k - $10k in equity in my lease - so if I can find the diesel I want or order it and apply that equity to the next truck - that best meets my needs - well that is just taking advantage of an unusual market situation  

 

 

 

 

[nards444]

39 minutes ago, Supercup said:

 

LOL - I have owned most trucks for a longer than 4 months - in 2019 I sold my 2014 Raptor with 100k miles - for $45k - loved that.  Before that I had a 3500 4WD SRW diesel Chevy from 2008 - 2014.

 

I leased a new AT4 Carbon Pro in July 2019 - but did not get tow mirrors.  I started towing more after I got that truck - in August 2020 I saw an AT4 Carbon Pro with tow mirrors - emailed dealer GM - he called - over the phone he agreed to take my truck back and lease me new one with $0 drive off - my lease payment went down $50 a month and I got a new truck with tow mirrors and added cameras - so it was an easy decision and a win for both.

 

Fast forward 11 months (to now) and I bought a new toy box, which will weigh in at about 9.8k or a bit more when towing - that is on the outside edge of tow rating for my AT4.  Market for used stuff is crazy - so I have $7k - $10k in equity in my lease - so if I can find the diesel I want or order it and apply that equity to the next truck - that best meets my needs - well that is just taking advantage of an unusual market situation  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Your are right.  Ive switched out 3 cars in the last three months.  Traded in one I owed for 86% of what I bought it for 6 years ago, granted it was challenger 392 but still.  The other two were lease turn ins,  one went to a trade and one went for another lease. 

 

Based off the two leases we turned in,  I think 10k in equity is a high number to expect though,  I think you will be well under 5k.  But then again depends on residuals and capitalized  cost.   10k in equity plus dealer profit on used cars which they will want at least 5k,  puts that well over what it was new.

[Supercup]

35 minutes ago, nards444 said:

Based off the two leases we turned in,  I think 10k in equity is a high number to expect though,  I think you will be well under 5k.  But then again depends on residuals and capitalized  cost.   10k in equity plus dealer profit on used cars which they will want at least 5k,  puts that well over what it was new.

 

Have lease pay off this month of $55.3K - have offers in hand - $58K from Ford dealer on trade for Super Duty - $62K via KBB buy it now program (3 active dealer offers , $63K from my local GMC dealer (yesterday) - straight purchase.

 

Best was $65K from Car Max - this one was a bust - they appraised it Saturday, went in last night to sell it to them - I have certificate from them that says price is good for 7 days - they would not buy it due to being a lease - they then showed me a sign they put up on Monday at front desk that says they "cannot" buy any vehicles from GM that are leased - GM will not allow them to purchase.  More likely Car Max is owned by the worlds largest GM dealer network and they decided it was best to just funnel all those cars back to GM versus competing with each other.

 

Nothing in my lease restricting pay off or who it goes to, but they tell me for them they cannot buy it from me and I can "only" sell it to GM or GM dealer or I have to pay lease off and have title in my name for them to buy per GM.

 

So that may delay things a bit if I have to pay off, to sell, as it will take some time to get title.  But can do that if I have to.  We will see what my local GMC dealer says, as they don't face the same restrictions. 

 

GM is not doing themselves any favors with me and any other lease customer who gets this road block put up, so they can try to take advantage of market at our expense!

 

  

[nards444]

29 minutes ago, Supercup said:

 

Have lease pay off this month of $55.3K - have offers in hand - $58K from Ford dealer on trade for Super Duty - $62K via KBB buy it now program (3 active dealer offers , $63K from my local GMC dealer (yesterday) - straight purchase.

 

Best was $65K from Car Max - this one was a bust - they appraised it Saturday, went in last night to sell it to them - I have certificate from them that says price is good for 7 days - they would not buy it due to being a lease - they then showed me a sign they put up on Monday at front desk that says they "cannot" buy any vehicles from GM that are leased - GM will not allow them to purchase.  More likely Car Max is owned by the worlds largest GM dealer network and they decided it was best to just funnel all those cars back to GM versus competing with each other.

 

Nothing in my lease restricting pay off or who it goes to, but they tell me for them they cannot buy it from me and I can "only" sell it to GM or GM dealer or I have to pay lease off and have title in my name for them to buy per GM.

 

So that may delay things a bit if I have to pay off, to sell, as it will take some time to get title.  But can do that if I have to.  We will see what my local GMC dealer says, as they don't face the same restrictions. 

 

GM is not doing themselves any favors with me and any other lease customer who gets this road block put up, so they can try to take advantage of market at our expense!

 

  

 

Went through that with a Ford lease two weeks on my wife Arcadia purchase at GM dealer.  So  Ford is doing it too.  They are protecting their dealers and like you said trying to funnel those cars back. 

 

I cant imagine any real offers going through for 65 their cheaper than that brand new right now.  55 seems the high water mark at most.  But then again it depends on your area I guess.  But get it while you can if you can,  chips are flowing back in now, and once the glut of new stuff hits the lots the game is over.

 

 

[wesd]

6 hours ago, nards444 said:

I cant imagine any real offers going through for 65 their cheaper than that brand new right now.  55 seems the high water mark at most.  But then again it depends on your area I guess.  But get it while you can if you can,  chips are flowing back in now, and once the glut of new stuff hits the lots the game is over.

 

 

 

Current situation is a once-in-a-generation deal, with prices inverted (used higher than new, due to tight supply on new).  I sold my extra truck back in May because the offer was unbelievably strong.

 

I'm in the hobby farm market and tracking the sub/compact tractor market inventory situation.   There's a Kubota dealer down the street, he had zero inventory from around June to mid-April.  They were stressed because they can't sell what they don't have.   Drove by yesterday, they've got at least 15 tractors in the showroom and various stage of prep.   Plenty of implements too.    Hard to call the crisis of no inventory over nationally, but at this particular location one could certainly buy and take immediate delivery of a product that was not available just 3 months ago.  Think about that.

 

The truck market will very likely soon be the same.   

 

 

[nards444]

10 hours ago, wesd said:

 

Current situation is a once-in-a-generation deal, with prices inverted (used higher than new, due to tight supply on new).  I sold my extra truck back in May because the offer was unbelievably strong.

 

I'm in the hobby farm market and tracking the sub/compact tractor market inventory situation.   There's a Kubota dealer down the street, he had zero inventory from around June to mid-April.  They were stressed because they can't sell what they don't have.   Drove by yesterday, they've got at least 15 tractors in the showroom and various stage of prep.   Plenty of implements too.    Hard to call the crisis of no inventory over nationally, but at this particular location one could certainly buy and take immediate delivery of a product that was not available just 3 months ago.  Think about that.

 

The truck market will very likely soon be the same.   

 

 

 

No I agree.  But the numbers quoted just werent there.  By the time you figured 10k in equity, then dealer profit on top of that, the new asking price for that vehicle would have been 5-10k over MSRP when it was new 2-3 years ago.  But looking at the quoted deal above, its form car max,  they buy and sell high.  That  deal if it went through which I doubt, would never happen with a dealer.

[RLCC]

I just sold a 2019 1500 AT4 with all the options to Vroom for $5k more then I paid for it 3 years ago new, with the plan to wait till the mid cycle comes out to replace because I have a 2017 Denali HD as my other truck.  Went to dealer last Friday and he offered me $4k more then I paid on the 2500 HD though that was used GM certified when I bought in 19, and I've put 18k miles on it in that time.  So like others I said you have deal, time to find a new HD.  He did offer to order me one says 5 months which I'll do.  But will continue to search for one at the same time.  I have had 10 GMC trucks over the years and never seen anything like this.  Crazy when you drive by the flint plant and see all the new ones built ready to go.

[Cheddar]

Well I am at 18 weeks since I placed a down payment and ordered my 3500 HD.  Dealer has still not been able to push the order in due to constraints on the build. Then the first news article I see is GM is going to reduce shifts  and do shut downs and have already started to lay people off again because of parts shortages and chip issues. The frustration with this whole mess is insane. I have started looking at used trucks again but it is hard to justify buying a used truck that is within a couple years that has a 100,000 miles on it for a higher price the the new one you have ordered.  The market crazy so I guess I will continue to drive this old 94 Chevy 2wd truck with 200,000 miles on it till i get my new truck sometime in 202? who knows.

[03 Cobra]

3 hours ago, Cheddar said:

Well I am at 18 weeks since I placed a down payment and ordered my 3500 HD.  Dealer has still not been able to push the order in due to constraints on the build. Then the first news article I see is GM is going to reduce shifts  and do shut downs and have already started to lay people off again because of parts shortages and chip issues. The frustration with this whole mess is insane. I have started looking at used trucks again but it is hard to justify buying a used truck that is within a couple years that has a 100,000 miles on it for a higher price the the new one you have ordered.  The market crazy so I guess I will continue to drive this old 94 Chevy 2wd truck with 200,000 miles on it till i get my new truck sometime in 202? who knows.

 

Cheddar, I am in a similar situation where I am waiting for my order for a '22 GMC Sierra 3500HD SLE with most options to get picked up.  I hope to hear from my dealer today if this week's allocations allow them to do anything.  What are you ordering?  Is your dealer letting you know which constraints are blocking you so you can decide if you want to amend your order or not?

[Cheddar]

20 hours ago, 03 Cobra said:

 

Cheddar, I am in a similar situation where I am waiting for my order for a '22 GMC Sierra 3500HD SLE with most options to get picked up.  I hope to hear from my dealer today if this week's allocations allow them to do anything.  What are you ordering?  Is your dealer letting you know which constraints are blocking you so you can decide if you want to amend your order or not?

I had a 2021 3500HD Midnight Edition which has now been moved to a 2022. The truck is an LT with Leather and convenience package 2 with .the 5th wheel gooseneck option. The constraints on it are the safety package lane assist  and cross traffic safety. problem is if you try to remove those features it removes the Midnight Edition Package which is what I really want. So the dilemma is settle for something of a lesser truck or continue to wait for what I want. This issue has already cost me more in the long run than it should have and has ruined many vacation plans. Other issue of being forced to a 2022 is any rebates will not apply more than likely.