Gas Prices

CamGTP · 2026-07-15T23:18:42Z

$4.00 a gallon here now.

Diesel nearly $5.00 again.

Grumpy Bear · 2026-07-15T23:52:27Z

1 hour ago, Atlas said:

If we're talking futures, yes, it's speculation.

The spot price of a delivered barrel is elevated now compared to before the conflict. And that is related more to current supply/demand.

If we actually used any significant amount of that source in the USA then I'd agree but we don't. We've had that discussion before. We drill and pump more than we use. Thing is, we sell. We export. Gas and Crude. It's more profitable so any shortage here is self inflicted and LEGAL. :rollin:

I worked a gas plant that has multiple fuel sources available and I worked in the furnace and boiler plant in that facility. I'd had days we swapped fuel types four times in a twelve hour shift which isn't done on supply but on margin. Two of the fuel sources are internally generated. Tail gas and DAK, both of which are sold as well a consumed. We always had more than we needed to run the process but we chose the fuel that produced the best margin not bought at the cheapest price always. A good bit of math to that and back in the time that was done on a slide rule. :crackup:

I worked the Shale Oil Semiworks of Chevron Research and CONOCO Research in Salt Lake City. That process never went into production although it was very successful. Why? Did we lack oil bearing shale? Nope. Price of crude never made the margins work. That was in the late 70's early 80's. Remember history? What was happening then was a reaction to that situation. It didn't drive it. If so then it's easy. This isn't a supply and demand thing. This is a profit and margin thing and AI rules that now.

In no refining situation that I was ever in would a bomb hitting a well anywhere in the world 'instantly' interrupt or even distress the supply. Most plants have more than a months worth of crude in the tank field and more in pumping stations. That yo-yo could play out over days, weeks and maybe months and have zero impact on plant operations. How many times has this been off and on in the last few months? These people and not stupid. These plants measure down time in hundreds of thousands of dollars per day. They are not sucking fumes or waiting on the next truckload with baited breath. Besides, as I noted, they are for the most part 'vertically integrated'. They own it from the dirt is sits in to the delivery rack and sometimes to the pump. It has a HUGE shock absorber built in. When production suffers, refining wins and when refining is winning exploration is killing. The rest of that crap in the news is a 'news cycle'. Government dipping in to reserves? Oil is stealing their milk money. There's a reason Chevron abandon Venezuela infrastructure and it had nothing to do with security of US citizens. Nationals run those plants. it has to do with MARGINS disappearing to corruption. They are in no hurry to return. Is there supply there? Oh yea. More than enough to offset what is bought in the middle east. Just isn't ???? Profitable.

We have supply. There are places in Illinois you can drive a pipe into the ground and run your homes natural gas furnace on it.

A refinery fire will gum up the supply works but not a localized war where the market is using a limited supply from. Now Europe, that's something other....

Edited 18 hours ago by Grumpy Bear

Atlas · 2026-07-16T01:59:51Z

1 hour ago, Grumpy Bear said:

If we actually used any significant amount of that source in the USA then I'd agree but we don't. We've had that discussion before. We drill and pump more than we use. Thing is, we sell. We export. Gas and Crude. It's more profitable so any shortage here is self inflicted and LEGAL.

I worked a gas plant that has multiple fuel sources available and I worked in the furnace and boiler plant in that facility. I'd had days we swapped fuel types four times in a twelve hour shift which isn't done on supply but on margin. Two of the fuel sources are internally generated. Tail gas and DAK, both of which are sold as well a consumed. We always had more than we needed to run the process but we chose the fuel that produced the best margin not bought at the cheapest price always. A good bit of math to that and back in the time that was done on a slide rule.

I worked the Shale Oil Semiworks of Chevron Research and CONOCO Research in Salt Lake City. That process never went into production although it was very successful. Why? Did we lack oil bearing shale? Nope. Price of crude never made the margins work. That was in the late 70's early 80's. Remember history? What was happening then was a reaction to that situation. It didn't drive it. If so then it's easy. This isn't a supply and demand thing. This is a profit and margin thing and AI rules that now.

In no refining situation that I was ever in would a bomb hitting a well anywhere in the world 'instantly' interrupt or even distress the supply. Most plants have more than a months worth of crude in the tank field and more in pumping stations. That yo-yo could play out over days, weeks and maybe months and have zero impact on plant operations. How many times has this been off and on in the last few months? These people and not stupid. These plants measure down time in hundreds of thousands of dollars per day. They are not sucking fumes or waiting on the next truckload with baited breath. Besides, as I noted, they are for the most part 'vertically integrated'. They own it from the dirt is sits in to the delivery rack and sometimes to the pump. It has a HUGE shock absorber built in. When production suffers, refining wins and when refining is winning exploration is killing. The rest of that crap in the news is a 'news cycle'. Government dipping in to reserves? Oil is stealing their milk money. There's a reason Chevron abandon Venezuela infrastructure and it had nothing to do with security of US citizens. Nationals run those plants. it has to do with MARGINS disappearing to corruption. They are in no hurry to return. Is there supply there? Oh yea. More than enough to offset what is bought in the middle east. Just isn't ???? Profitable.

We have supply. There are places in Illinois you can drive a pipe into the ground and run your homes natural gas furnace on it.

A refinery fire will gum up the supply works but not a localized war where the market is using a limited supply from. Now Europe, that's something other....

What I think you're saying is there is supply here at home, and in Venezuela, and we could ease pricing if only it were favorable to do so.

Well, yes?

But that's not the current market. Supply isn't what could someday exist, if only, it's what producers are willing to produce and sell at a certain price point.

The national price of single family homes would come way down if we'd just slap together a few million homes this summer.

RAM and GPUs would get a lot cheaper if we just set up some factories to produce a bunch more and stopped using it to build out AI data centers.

Grumpy Bear · 2026-07-16T04:06:36Z

2 hours ago, Atlas said:

What I think you're saying is there is supply here at home, and in Venezuela, and we could ease pricing if only it were favorable to do so.

Well, yes?

But that's not the current market.

That sir is a choice. And even if it were not for all the reasons stated, this disruption has zero to do with the reality of the actual logistics and everything to do with the greed of SPECULATION. Spot price is irrelevant to reality.

Atlas · 2026-07-16T04:39:58Z

19 minutes ago, Grumpy Bear said:

That sir is a choice. And even if it were not for all the reasons stated, this disruption has zero to do with the reality of the actual logistics and everything to do with the greed of SPECULATION. Spot price is irrelevant to reality.

I understand that. The price is what it is, though. The price is what oil costs today, where our choices have led us, where supply is, and where demand is, in the market that is. Speculation is for futures, what we think the price will be, but with incomplete information at the time the price is forecast. I know you know this, but you appear to be intent on making a secondary point here about what you think the market could or should be, if only other choices.

In 1975 it became illegal to export US Crude. I'm conflicted on what the best answer is. Free markets allow export in pursuit of profit. But there is also a lot to gain by producing and consuming our own oil here. How do you reconcile it?

PhilB · 2026-07-16T11:48:58Z

7 hours ago, Atlas said:

In 1975 it became illegal to export US Crude.

That ban was lifted in 2015.

https://www.pillsburylaw.com/en/news-and-insights/us-repeals-longstanding-ban-on-export-of-crude-oil.html

diyer2 · 2026-07-16T13:21:30Z

It is what it is, pay the price, gotta have it.

Grumpy Bear · 2026-07-16T13:58:04Z

8 hours ago, Atlas said:

In 1975 it became illegal to export US Crude. I'm conflicted on what the best answer is. Free markets allow export in pursuit of profit. But there is also a lot to gain by producing and consuming our own oil here. How do you reconcile it?

1 hour ago, PhilB said:

That ban was lifted in 2015.

https://www.pillsburylaw.com/en/news-and-insights/us-repeals-longstanding-ban-on-export-of-crude-oil.html

Thank you Phil

https://uscommodityprice.com/difference-between-spot-price-futures-price/

Read the entire article but pay attention to the paragraph on 'Convergence at Expiration" and how the futures telegraphs the spot price. At delivery they are the same. Pump price responds directionally to the futures price. No they are not the same but at delivery they are indistinguishable. Good thing to or you'd be paying a thousand dollars a gallon for the stuff.

8 hours ago, Atlas said:

How do you reconcile it?

There is an definitive answer with an absolute and assured result. However that answer cannot be discussed on this site.

But I can say this. It is beyond the ability of any human or any group of humans no matter how well meaning. We have had thousands of years to prove we could and the results are dismal. Until then we have this:

25 minutes ago, diyer2 said:

It is what it is, pay the price, gotta have it.

And there it is.

txab · 2026-07-16T17:21:16Z

19 hours ago, Atlas said:

It's the Middle East conflict that raised prices, not AI. But nice distraction.

Not a distraction. You miss the point of the article. It's not just for today's situation. Another way AI is being used and it may explain some of the prices changes when there is no apparent event to cause a 25 cent jump out of nowhere, only to immediately, the next day, begin to drop by 2 cents and so on. These situations were happening before the Iran thing fired off.

I used to be in the retail gas/service business. Pretty much a $1 increase in WTI would increase my price by maybe .10 cents. Now WTI can go down and retailers can get hit with a .35 cent increase out of nowhere.

I thought it was interesting read, since this is being used on all products we buy now

Edited 1 hour ago by txab

Atlas · 2026-07-16T17:33:10Z

10 minutes ago, txab said:

Not a distraction. You miss the point of the article. It's not just for today's situation. Another way AI is being used and it may explain some of the prices changes when there is no apparent event to cause a 25 cent jump out of nowhere, only to immediately, the next day, begin to drop by 2 cents and so on. These situations were happening before the Iran thing fired off. I thought it was interesting

I don’t. The source is a far-right fake news site perpetuated by Glenn Beck. Funny how you clean up political posts and then regurgitate garbage from politically tainted sites.

txab · 2026-07-16T18:10:47Z

The "source" a woman, that writes the article is not a far right person. She's pretty well known "car person". She writes her own stuff, but yes it is initially posted under the Blaze, because they purchased the right to post it first, before it is posted on her own sites. It doesn't mean the info is any less valid. the article itself is not political It's not meant to discount any current actions in the Iran

Only posted the link because that's what has to be done to be legal to post the article. The Blaze is not a site I use. Lauren Fix's page pointed me there and I have to use a bypass method to look at the article since I'm not about to join the site. I've posted articles over the years from the Lefty sites, seems you didn't have a problem with that.

But you do you, keep looking at everything only through left/right lenses.

The 3 or 4 of you that participate in the some of the comments had ample chance to read everything. Other members that don't care for it, send in comments, because as they will point out, political talk is discouraged. Both "sides" complain