Coronavirus

Grumpy Bear · April 16, 2020

2 hours ago, KARNUT said:

I’ll say this again. This lock down was more about overwhelming the hospitals. Death from this is a given. It’s going to happen, and continue to. The Texas governor is talking about a rolling start up Monday. Yesterday was our biggest death day. Testing is up so is infection. Now if infections pick up they’ll roll back a bit. I believe it will be tempered by compliance.

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This is why I think well of you even when we get snippy with each other.

KARNUT · April 16, 2020

This is why I think well of you even when we get snippy with each other.

We wouldn’t want it to get boring.

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T1Kaiju · April 16, 2020

I plucked that graph from the CDC so the red line isn't mine. That said:

I see where your going with that. You want a comparison between COVID-19 and ALL FORMS OF DEATH COMBINE. Such a comparison then would go, "It's a minor fraction of all forms of death and as such, no big deal". How am I doing?

Here's a stat for you. 100% of all people die.

This is Cook County Illinois

You will have no trouble finding the flu/pneumonia slice. Yes quite small indeed. Not the issue. Mitigation in place has resulting in 2SARS equaling those two. GOOD JOB!!

Now take mitigation away and start over and it becomes how much of the pie? How big does the slice need to be to become worth the effort?

The Spanish Flu killed more people than WWI. 40 million in war, both military and civilian and 50 million from the flu. The world population was but 1.8 billion then. 50 million is only 2.8% of 1.8 billion. Let that sink in. 100% of those alive eventually died.

So....question for you. Was WWI no big deal? Were those 2.8% of the population insignificant?

Well, you just side stepped the data showing Covid hasn't killed any extra people; this years death curve looks 100% NORMAL until people were forced into home confinement where it dropped like a rock. There isn't anything there - you simply cant judge statistics without personal bias. It isnt getting worse - its almost over.

As for cause of death - does the reason the person is dead matter if they are dead anyway, and you could do good by getting more goverment money for your city just by changing the cause? Would that be a white lie?

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Grumpy Bear · April 16, 2020

I did some looking at "Herd Immunity". Seems a hot topic. I knew little about it and now know only a little more.

Looking at polio cholera & typhoid as exemplars. Herd Immunity is PRIMARALY the result of vaccination. Interesting. However it can happen organically. But the thing about it is why it works and what percentage of the population needs it to be effective. Ah...

Oddly the point of it is exactly the same as social distancing. Provide no place for the virus to go, interrupt it's natural pathway. Check!

The problem is that for it to be effective 70% to 95% of a vulnerable population needs to be vaccinated OR infected (antibodies).

So lets see. We have 331,000,000 (rounded down) in America. So for Herd Immunity to be effective we need what:

70% = 231,700,000 infections minimum

95% = 314,450,000 infections maximum

To date we have roughly 667,000 infections (rounded) and 34,000 dead. That's about 5%. What is 5% of the minimum Herd Immunity population?

11,600,000 Dead

Cut the threshold to 60% and use an MR of 2.5%. Half of what is already a matter of record. Still 5 million dead.

Now lets say my math stinks and the 'experts' at the CDC and every state health board is in collusion to win an election. There is something we don't know. How long the antibodies last or if the bodies antibodies are even effective against this virus.

Just spit balling here but "Bad Hat Harry" .

KARNUT · April 16, 2020

Well, you just side stepped the data showing Covid hasn't killed any extra people; this years death curve looks 100% NORMAL until people were forced into home confinement where it dropped like a rock. There isn't anything there - you simply cant judge statistics without personal bias. It isnt getting worse - its almost over.

As for cause of death - does the reason the person is dead matter if they are dead anyway, and you could do good by getting more goverment money for your city just by changing the cause? Would that be a white lie?

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I don’t think anyone is seeing this straight on. We all have bias. Will this plus the normal flu make it a bad flu year? How much worse would it have been without isolation plus a warning. Probably that question will be answered with the opening, however slow. There really isn’t any mitigation yet. Just speculation. I believe the opening has to happen. People who believe otherwise, don’t understand economics. And the damage we’ve already had. If people think the unemployed are not suffering, they are. Small business devastation. I’m set. But know what uncertainty feels like. Death never scared me, unemployment would.

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Donstar · April 16, 2020

3 hours ago, graystonelbz said:

She represents the real virus in our country, elite's like her that don't give a rats ass about the people she is supposed to be serving. American's are watching this disgusting behavior and will not forget.

I chuckled at this particular example because I also keep a freezer full of ice-cream and didn't think I was disgusting. I have been impressed with the generosity by many wealthy celebrities during this pandemic. Many are featured on our evening news and I don't begrudge them the privileges of success. I am not rich but I do give generously in time and food to those less lucky.

Thejet07 · April 16, 2020

https://skepchick.org/2020/04/diamoxforcovid/

Just one physiologists answer to this.

One article states patients have low co2, making it a plausible for use while the other states the opposite. It’s like politics, which one is the truth?

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KARNUT · April 16, 2020

I did some looking at "Herd Immunity". Seems a hot topic. I knew little about it and now know only a little more.

Looking at polio cholera & typhoid as exemplars. Herd Immunity is PRIMARALY the result of vaccination. Interesting. However it can happen organically. But the thing about it is why it works and what percentage of the population needs it to be effective. Ah...

Oddly the point of it is exactly the same as social distancing. Provide no place for the virus to go, interrupt it's natural pathway. Check!

The problem is that for it to be effective 70% to 95% of a vulnerable population needs to be vaccinated OR infected (antibodies).

So lets see. We have 331,000,000 (rounded down) in America. So for Herd Immunity to be effective we need what:

70% = 231,700,000 infections minimum
95% = 314,450,000 infections maximum

To date we have roughly 667,000 infections (rounded) and 34,000 dead. That's about 5%. What is 5% of the minimum Herd Immunity population?

11,600,000 Dead

Cut the threshold to 60% and use an MR of 2.5%. Half of what is already a matter of record. Still 5 million dead.

Now lets say my math stinks and the 'experts' at the CDC and every state health board is in collusion to win an election. There is something we don't know. How long the antibodies last or if the bodies antibodies are even effective against this virus.

Just spit balling here but "Bad Hat Harry" .

It’s probably worse than that. Herd immunity. It’s a virus, it can change. We have to figure out how to live with it? We definitely can’t wait it out. Most of the past ones are still around. My hope is someone much smarter than me figures it out.

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Grumpy Bear · April 16, 2020

37 minutes ago, Texas Daddy said:

Well, you just side stepped the data showing Covid hasn't killed any extra people; this years death curve looks 100% NORMAL until people were forced into home confinement where it dropped like a rock. There isn't anything there - you simply cant judge statistics without personal bias. It isnt getting worse - its almost over.

As for cause of death - does the reason the person is dead matter if they are dead anyway, and you could do good by getting more goverment money for your city just by changing the cause? Would that be a white lie?

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Let's start with you grabbed the wrong graph for your reply and move on to....seems you can't read a graph period.

This is a chart that is updated periodically. If I took you at your word then that last bar on the blue would indicate that COVID-19 cut total deaths in half. Try again....

16 minutes ago, KARNUT said:

I don’t think anyone is seeing this straight on. We all have bias. Will this plus the normal flu make it a bad flu year? How much worse would it have been without isolation plus a warning. Probably that question will be answered with the opening, however slow. There really isn’t any mitigation yet. Just speculation. I believe the opening has to happen. People who believe otherwise, don’t understand economics. And the damage we’ve already had. If people think the unemployed are not suffering, they are. Small business devastation. I’m set. But know what uncertainty feels like. Death never scared me, unemployment would.

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AGREE! Take a single Governor of any state and the MOUNTIAN of people he has behind him whose knowing on any one facet is far greater that his own and then ask how ridiculous it is for anyone on a message board to imply they know it all. OR anything for that matter.

General Comment with no specific target. GOT THAT?

Here's the thing with stats. Stat's don't have a bias...the draw a conclusion from the data examined. I've said more than once the input is likely corrupt and incomplete. BUT that it is still useful. Stats are public record. Not sure what my bias is....other than remaining alive amid a multitude of individuals who don't mind a good amount of death for some greater good...………..

As long as it isn't them personally that has to die.

Is that what Valor is? Sacrificing another for your personal advantage?

Edited April 16, 2020 by Grumpy Bear

KARNUT · April 16, 2020

AGREE! Take a single Governor of any state and the MOUNTIAN of people he has behind him whose knowing on any one facet is far greater that his own and then ask how ridiculous it is for anyone on a message board to imply they know it all. OR anything for that matter.

General Comment with no specific target. GOT THAT?

Here's the thing with stats. Stat's don't have a bias...the draw a conclusion from the data examined. I've said more than once the input is likely corrupt and incomplete. BUT that it is still useful. Stats are public record. Not sure what my bias is....other than remaining alive amid a multitude of individuals who don't mind a good amount of death for some greater good...………..

As long as it isn't them personally that has to die.

Is that what Valor is? Sacrificing another for your personal advantage?

There isn’t a chart for isolation yet. Drug use, alcoholism, domestic violence, suicide, and inmates being let out of jail to harm again. It’s a big pot. Bigger than just waiting it out. It must be seen, with its sacrifice.

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Grumpy Bear · April 16, 2020

6 minutes ago, KARNUT said:

It’s probably worse than that. Herd immunity. It’s a virus, it can change. We have to figure out how to live with it? We definitely can’t wait it out. Most of the past ones are still around. My hope is someone much smarter than me figures it out.

Brother me too.

This will amuse you Stan. You could use a laugh, right?

So the wife and I agree to let Walmart do the shopping and bring it to the truck. There are issues with it as there is any system tossed together in a panic.

1.) Your on line choices are about 2% of what the store carries if you go inside. (You can't go inside now)

2.) They will choose the most expensive product to fill your wish. There is no say in this.

3.) Substitutions are at their discretion. See the first two.

4.) You may reject item 3 upon delivery and they will remove it from your basket however it will be days before your account is credited.

Skimming the short list these people are not a altruistic as they would like you to believe. It is intended to maximize profit from a terrorized public. We got it all here including a large float of you money collectively.

I need a vehicle please. Okay, so they pick a Bugatti and charge you 100K. No you say and they give you a Civic and charge you, then they keep the Bugatti and your 100K for three days turning commercial paper for payroll. Of course this can be done a penny at a time with enough customers.

Okay so you have to schedule your pick up time and right now it's running about 5 days out. You place an order that they fill from inventory. But wait they ran out on day three of EVERYTHING. So I trudge to the local Ma and Pa suit up like Buck Rodgers and get the things that won't wait for them to get it right, $31 worth. Thing is this place has shelves running over and back stock up the....well....you get my point. I get home and Wally World refills the canceled order :wtf:

I see a DOCTOR has just released a book on parenting in the COVID-19 age. WOW.

I'll stop here. My sides hurt.

:crackup:

Grumpy Bear · April 16, 2020

7 minutes ago, KARNUT said:

There isn’t a chart for isolation yet. Drug use, alcoholism, domestic violence, suicide, and inmates being let out of jail to harm again. It’s a big pot. Bigger than just waiting it out. It must be seen, with its sacrifice.

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I saw some things on this. Increase in family violence and child abuse. Last time the world got like this Noah built a boat.

Grumpy Bear · April 16, 2020

28 minutes ago, KARNUT said:

There isn’t a chart for isolation yet.

Not sure if this is what your referring to but I JUST watched the Louisiana Governor display his Statistics teams charts. Said they will be posted on their dashboard later today. They were hit the worst in the world. Not in numbers but in rate of spread and so they DO have charts on doing nothing, Doing something with little public cooperation, getting cooperation and then just putting the hammer down enforcing the laws.

Have to say I felt a bit of vindication as the way this is tracked is the effect it has on the R-nought. Exactly as I did it for ya all the other day and better? They came to nearly the same statistical result. IN step...R-o 2.4, R-o 2.0 R-o 1.7 and finally R-o 1.3. They've been through all four phases and so have the data to crunch.

I did it nationally at R-o 1.59*. The statement from his people was until it is under 1 keep the hammer down. It has to be less that one to break the chain.

He stated that getting the R-o down from 2.4 to 1.3 reduced ventilator requirements by 90%. Their current MR is 5.1%

Their extending a few day more.

Just information.

graystonelbz · April 16, 2020

1 hour ago, Donstar said:

I chuckled at this particular example because I also keep a freezer full of ice-cream and didn't think I was disgusting. I have been impressed with the generosity by many wealthy celebrities during this pandemic. Many are featured on our evening news and I don't begrudge them the privileges of success. I am not rich but I do give generously in time and food to those less lucky.

Keep chuckling, you don't get it and never will. Glad you are impressed by celebrities, that's why they do it.

Grumpy Bear · April 16, 2020

At the end of the recession, in June 2009, it was 9.5 percent. In the months after the recession, the unemployment rate peaked at 10.0 percent (in October 2009). ... The long-term unemployment rate is the number of persons unemployed for 27 weeks or longer as a percent of the labor force.

www.bls.gov

Todays announcement was 4.4% and 22 million asking for unemployment.

Here's the difference this time. Last time it was a housing boom bust in the credit markets that took YEARS to unwind. This has happened in just four months.

OVERWHELMING the system.

Do you see the parallel?